IMPORTANT SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

 Even though a week ago it was said that this may be a significant severe weather event, it does not look to be that way now. There has been a change in this. Yesterday, it did not look like we would even get a severe weather event. But, it turns out the NCEP models were having problems handling the development of this system, and thus its dynamics. Here is what is likely to happen. Saturday morning, looks to start off clear and sunny across most of the area with some mid level and high level clouds likely across the area, from dying upstream convection. By this time tomorrow, the strong upper level wave that is currently located over South west Canada will likely be located over western Dakota. An ongoing MCS will likely be located over western Minnesota. During the day, as a surge of hot, dry air from the desert, rides up and over the warm, moist air at low levels, strong convective instability will set up. Dew p

oints are expected to rise into the low to mid 70's according to the 06z NAM. By late Saturday afternoon, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely erupt as the cold front approaches the region. By early to mid evening (7 p.m. - 9 p.m.) the cold front will be close enough to the region to allow for the development of numerous thunderstorms to our west, which will likely organize into an MCS on the nose of a rapidly strengthening low level jet. This will likely be our only chance for severe weather if this happens. If the MCS does set up, it will not move very quickly given weak to moderate upper level winds. Though deep layer shear will be increasing, the most important factor will be low level shear. This could allow for damaging winds, especially if the low level winds align in the same direction. Strong upper level divergence from the developing jet streak over the Midwest will likely allow for the development of additional showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Most thunderstorm activity should end by early Sunday morning, giving way to clearing skies and warming temperatures.

Have a great day!