Friday, March 2, 2012

Storm Threat Not Over

I am very sorry for not posting about the storm threat today, but I have been very busy.  The main line of storms is beginning to shift out of Northwest Ohio.  Behind this line of thunderstorms, temperatures will rise quickly into the mid and upper 50's, with a few places mainly south of Fort Wayne, reaching into the lower 60's.  This could generate enough instability ahead of the cold front, that a low-topped squall line could develop and race through areas SOUTH of Fort Wayne.  I do not think that any town north or northwest of Fort Wayne will see severe weather, so do not expect it.  Even areas northeast of Fort Wayne will probably have a hard time seeing any kind of strong thunderstorm.  There will be strong lifting and forcing which would replace the need for instability, which is why the Storm Prediction Center has said that the only way that we could get severe weather is if this low-topped squall line forms, which will bring strong, damaging winds and possibly some hail, maybe even a weak tornado.  Other than that, the cold front will pass through near early evening, with lapse rates becoming very high, allowing the transport of momentum of high wind aloft to the surface, combined with the strong surface pressure gradient, which will cause winds higher than 40 knots, which is near 50 mph.  This may mean that our wind advisory could be upgraded to a High Wind Warning, especially if gusts become over 55 mph.  Temperatures will rapidly drop into the lower 30's tonight, with snow showers possibly pivoting into the area with the comma head.  On Sunday, a shortwave will drop through bringing a greater chance for snow showers and much colder temperatures than what we have been seeing.  By next week, another warm up will be on the way, with possibly another heavy rain event/ or severe weather event by Thursday.  I will keep an eye on this over the next couple of days.

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