Storm System Later this Week

After reviewing quite a bit of data, this upcoming week looks quite interesting.  I have been looking at the main synoptic models, which have been fairly consistent with their solutions.  For one thing the next couple of days look quite interesting, with strong winds on both Monday and Tuesday.  Tomorrow, a weakening low pressure system will bypass, dragging a cold front along with it through the area.  This will cause temperature lapse rates to steepen quickly, promoting strong mixing of the boundary layer (low levels of the atmosphere).  This will act to transport strong winds aloft to the surface.  Winds will be fairly strong tomorrow, with gusts as high as 35 miles per hour.  Monday afternoon, as the surface cold front drops through, temperatures will drop back into the 30's, and with clear skies Monday night, temperatures will likely drop into the upper 20's, before weak WAA (Warm Air Advection) at the 850 millibar level causes temperatures to rise by Tuesday morning.  On Tuesday, a thickening cloud layer will move into the region by mid afternoon, ahead of the next major storm system.  As the storm system moves closer, winds will become stronger and gusty, but not as strong as they were on Monday.  By Tuesday night, at about 9 or 10 p.m., rain and possibly sleet or freezing rain could begin to fall.  If the mid levels of the atmosphere above us are drier than currently forecast at the onset of precipitation, winter precipitation may be much more of a threat than what model output indicates now.  Right now, I am not too concerned with this, especially because of how strong the warm advection will be Tuesday night.  For right now, there is still the possibility that it could happen.  This will be a situation that I will continue to monitor in coming days.  Rain will continue for most of the night, with several embedded thunderstorms after 3 a.m.  Precipitation will quickly end by 9 a.m. in most locations on Wednesday, with areas north of Route 6, still seeing showers for a little while longer.  Due to the strength of this storm system, a strong temperature gradient will set up across the area from near the Michigan/Indiana state line to Lake Erie.  This will mean temperatures near and over 60 in Fort Wayne and areas farther south, while temperatures will hold in the lower to mid 40's north of Route 6 (a temperature change of 20 degrees in 30 miles of distance!).  As the warm front surges passed the area, I expect that most towns will hit 60 south of the Michigan border, with temperatures along the border in the lower 50's.  Strong mixing in the warm sector, will promote high winds, and could warrant a high wind warning for the area with winds over 45 mph possible!  This strong mixing could cause the atmosphere to become conditionally unstable by early afternoon, and with strong lift from the cold front and remaining low level moisture, there is the possibility of low topped supercells, especially with the strongly veering winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Right now the threat is pretty low of any low topped supercells, but I cannot rule out scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the early afternoon, especially under mostly sunny skies.  By Wednesday Night, temperatures will rapidly fall in the wake of the cold front, and the comma head of the storm system will pivot through the area, causing rain and a few snow showers, with some of these showers convective in nature, with locally moderate rainfall or snowfall.  After this system, temperatures will not fall that much, with highs easily reaching the mid 40's on Thursday.  By Friday, our next storm system will be in the making and hitting our area with rain once again, and another surge of very warm temperatures.