Since I didn't really address the rain issue in the first post, I will address it now. According to current radar and surface observations, convective bands of localized have developed and are moving north and eastward at slow rates. These convective bands are a result of weak mid level instability, and a unique phenomena called slantwise convection. Intstead of regular convection, which results from upward growth of large cumulus clouds, slantwise convection develops when air moves diagonally instead of directly upward. Since this upward motion is not intense, lightning and thunder are rare with these bands of rain, but because of the how moist the atmosphere is, and how large scale this upward motion is, heavy rainfall can result from these bands of rain. I believe this is exactly what is occurring right now, over most of our area. Therefore, I believe that many areas will receive periods of rain for several hours, before changing over to snow (mainly north of Route 6). South of Route 6, rain will not change over to snow until boundary layer temperatures cool just enough so that the warm layer is not as deep, which will result from intense synoptic scale lifting and cooling of dry air at the 850 millibar level, mixing with the warmer temperatures of the boundary layer, and causing a much more unstable situation. This could also initiate even more bands of locally heavy rain. For this reason rainfall totals will be anywhere in the range of a quarter to a half inch or possibly more. By early tomorrow morning, most if not all precipitation will be snow in the area with around an inch of snow possible south of Route 6, and several inches north of Route 6. Other than that, that is the only thing that has changed since my last blog post.
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