Forecast Update.

Most people in Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana probably woke up to one or two inches of fluffy snow on the ground this morning.  This snow was due to a weak upper level system embedded in the 700 millibar wind flow.  Fairly strong frontogenesis in the middle levels earlier this morning caused heavier bands of snow to develop in far eastern Indiana and Northwest Ohio, causing higher snowfall totals than most other regions.  In Antwerp, I have measured over two inches of snow on the ground, (which is what most areas reported.  Stronger forcing with this system stayed well to our south, with some cities such as St. Louis, picking up 3-5 inches of snow from the system.  All in all, this was a fairly decent, especially since it was produced by a very weak system, which would normally not produce this much precipitation.  As this system moves out, warm air advection will take place on the back side, causing temperatures to gradually rise across the area.  Due to snowmelt, however, this warming will be reduced at the surface, while in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, temperatures continue warming.  With the amount of moisture in the atmosphere right now, due to this low level cold layer, expect as the snow ends, for the snow to change over to light freezing rain and possibly freezing fog.  By tonight, enough dry air will have arrived in the area, to cause skies to clear and temperatures to fall back into the twenties.  Tomorrow, temperatures will warm nicely under partly cloudy skies into the upper 30's and lower 40's (which may be too warm, as snow melt will cause lower temperatures).  By tomorrow afternoon, skies will begin to cloud up once again as the next system approaches.  This system, possibly a much stronger system than today's, will move into the Central Plains and Midwest.  This southern stream system will at least undergo partial phasing with the northern stream system, causing a fairly strong storm system ahead of the upper level disturbance.  Currently, the system is spinning in California, causing showers and some snow in the mountains.  Right now, the GFS model is indicating that the two systems (one in the Northern Rockies and Canada, and the other in Southern California) will not undergo phasing (two or more disturbances combining their energy and becoming one relatively strong storm system), causing a weak surface system to bring the area some rain Wednesday into Thursday.  I am going to rule out the GFS for now, as the latest upper air analysis shows that these systems are in close enough proximity to phase with each other over the Great Plains.  It all depends on how quickly the stronger southern stream disturbance scoots itself out of the American Southwest and into the Great Lakes.  This would be the solution of the ECMWF which shows a much stronger storm system, bringing heavier rain and stronger winds to the region.  If a stronger storm system, and much more powerful snowstorm would hit the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, so we will have to keep our eyes on the situation.  In my opinion, the two systems will phase with each other, causing a strong storm system to move across the area.  By late Wednesday evening, these two systems will begin producing overcast conditions and showers across the area.  Overnight Wednesday, expect periods of moderate to heavy rain at times, with maybe an embedded thunderstorm (according to the Storm Prediction Center).  Overall rainfall will be in the range of a half inch to three-quarters of an inch, with some locally higher amounts also possible.  By Thursday morning, rain bands will still exist across the area, with the possibility of strong mid and low level frontogenesis causing the formation of heavy rain and possibly a rain/heavy snow mix especially northwest of Fort Wayne.  The low pressure center will pass through the area by Thursday mid morning, causing the dry slot to move through also, bringing a quick end to any precipitation.  Some precipitation may return for the afternoon in the comma head, but any additional precipitation will be fairly light, with a rain/snow mix possible.
   After this, a turbulent pattern will finish out the rest of the week and persist into next week, as the northern stream becomes dominant and becomes very strong.  In my opinion, this will lead inevitably lead to a meridional pattern, which is conducive for storms and SOME winter weather.  So next week and beyond, I believe that winter will go out with a big bang, with not only some last minute winter weather but maybe even some violent severe weather by the beginning of March.  As for the rest of spring, the effects of La Nina will continue on, leading to yet another wet and stormy spring, though it will probably be much warmer than last spring.  Severe weather will also be frequent around here during the mid and late spring.