Many you have heard me say this. I have finally given up on winter ever coming. It's too late in the year for any nasty polar outbreaks to hit the area due to the high sun angle. The higher sun angle is able to modify arctic air faster than a mid winter sun, causing not so extreme temperatures. With virtually no snow cover and the lack of cold air already this winter, soil temperatures are extremely warm for this time of year, which also is a contributing factor to air mass modification. Any polar outbreaks from here on out will be rather short lived and weak, with temperatures barely below freezing in most cases. In a few days or perhaps today, I would like to write an article on the main reasons why this winter was not forecasted well and what went wrong. For all you snow lovers (like me), any snowfall events will quickly melt away, because of warm soil and the lack of arctic air. I am truly sorry for how badly my forecast was for the winter.
Back to the present situation, even with the lack of winter across the country, some very interesting things are going on. One of them is a rapidly strengthening storm system across the Gulf Coast in Deep South. Here is a surface pressure image from the storm system.
As you can see a fairly decently sized storm system is located along the Gulf Coast. This type of storm system is currently being directly fueled by the traditional jet stream dynamics, but it is being fueled by latent heat release from a enormous complex of thunderstorms north of the warm front over Louisiana and Mississippi. This thunderstorm complex will be the culprit in very heavy rainfall and flash flooding across a large part of the Deep South. Below is the latest radar image from the storm system.
When thunderstorm complexes strengthen in the vicinity of an upper level disturbance, the release of latent heat from condensed water strengthens the upper level disturbance, causing the surface low to strengthen, which tends to cause a strengthening of the thunderstorms in a positive feedback process, that could cause this storm system to become incredibly strong. The release of latent heat in the Deep South, along with a baroclinic wave moving across our area currently, is also causing the rapid strengthening of an upper level jet streak currently located right over us. This could have serious implications for the storm in the south, as the jet streak could cause explosive development of this storm system and possibly a much stronger storm affecting the Mid-Atlantic states by tonight and tomorrow. Shown below is the current jet streak.
As you can see, right over us, about 10 kilometers above the surface, winds are raging at over 160 knots (184 mph). It seems to me as if the jet streak is coupling with the one seen over Northern Mexico to produce these strong thunderstorms and bow echoes over the Gulf of Mexico. As the day progresses, the storm will shift north and eastward (but not affecting our area). Eventually, this storm will strengthen as it heads into the Mid-Atlantic states, where it will meet with a baroclinic wave currently moving over Northern Ohio. This baroclinic wave will cause the temperatures to drop significantly not only here, but in the Mid-Atlantic states as well, paving the way for a possible snowstorm over the Appalachian Mountains and parts of Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky. Models are suggesting that the cold air will not be able to overtake the storm and cause a major snowstorm, with the cold air only clipping the edges of the storm and producing localized heavy snow in the mountains. But if the storm continues to strengthen as it has been, a much bigger snowstorm may occur, and with even significant accumulations of snow at the surface in the Virginia and North Carolina.
As for the forecast in our region, I expect a front to move through in the next hour or so, causing the development of stratocumulus and cumulus (this started to occur). As the day progresses, I believe that most of the day will be mostly cloudy, because clouds developing in the (relatively) unstable air mass behind the front, and because of lake enhancement. Low level temperatures and the relatively unstable air mass will not be enough to generate a lake effect snow event, but convective clouds will develop and move off the lake and into most areas of Northwest Ohio and Indiana. Although I cannot rule out a stray snow flurry or two. By tonight, skies will clear up once again, with temperatures dropping into the lower 20's. Tomorrow through Monday sunny skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid to upper 30's.
Back to the present situation, even with the lack of winter across the country, some very interesting things are going on. One of them is a rapidly strengthening storm system across the Gulf Coast in Deep South. Here is a surface pressure image from the storm system.
As you can see, right over us, about 10 kilometers above the surface, winds are raging at over 160 knots (184 mph). It seems to me as if the jet streak is coupling with the one seen over Northern Mexico to produce these strong thunderstorms and bow echoes over the Gulf of Mexico. As the day progresses, the storm will shift north and eastward (but not affecting our area). Eventually, this storm will strengthen as it heads into the Mid-Atlantic states, where it will meet with a baroclinic wave currently moving over Northern Ohio. This baroclinic wave will cause the temperatures to drop significantly not only here, but in the Mid-Atlantic states as well, paving the way for a possible snowstorm over the Appalachian Mountains and parts of Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky. Models are suggesting that the cold air will not be able to overtake the storm and cause a major snowstorm, with the cold air only clipping the edges of the storm and producing localized heavy snow in the mountains. But if the storm continues to strengthen as it has been, a much bigger snowstorm may occur, and with even significant accumulations of snow at the surface in the Virginia and North Carolina.
As for the forecast in our region, I expect a front to move through in the next hour or so, causing the development of stratocumulus and cumulus (this started to occur). As the day progresses, I believe that most of the day will be mostly cloudy, because clouds developing in the (relatively) unstable air mass behind the front, and because of lake enhancement. Low level temperatures and the relatively unstable air mass will not be enough to generate a lake effect snow event, but convective clouds will develop and move off the lake and into most areas of Northwest Ohio and Indiana. Although I cannot rule out a stray snow flurry or two. By tonight, skies will clear up once again, with temperatures dropping into the lower 20's. Tomorrow through Monday sunny skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid to upper 30's.
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