Important Forecast Update

I am very sorry for not posting since Tuesday, but I have been very busy.  As for this post, I need to update the forecast, as some very drastic changes have occurred.  One important thing is that the relatively weak storm system forecast a couple of days ago, has instead become a very strong low pressure system center over Missouri, with a central pressure of at least 990 millibars.  This system has formed in response to a rapidly strengthening jet streak currently situated over the area.  Because of the jet streak, intense lifting is occuring over a widespread area, but with the little moisture that is present, only a narrow band of precipitation has set up over the Midwest, with some areas located within the more intense lifting region experiencing rain changing over to snow.  Right now, the main band of precipitation over our area is mainly rain with some mixing of snow over lower Michigan.  This initial band of precipitation will shift out of the area, with maybe even some partial clearing south of Route 30, but other than that thick clouds will persist over the area.  Intense ascent and lifting due to the temperature gradient south of the area will cause bands of rain to redevelop in most of the area, with areas north and west of Route 6 experiencing rain mixing with snow, or completely changing to snow especially across southern Michigan.  My current thinking is that the jet streak will back build and intensify, causing more intense lifting, and eventually causing most if not all of our precipitation to change to snow after 2 a.m.  The only reason why rain instead of snow is falling currently is because of temperatures near the surface are several degrees above freezing.  Other than that, as soon as we can get temperatures in lowest three thousand feet to cool at least close to freezing, snow will begin to fall.  In some areas, this will occur faster, especially in lower Michigan, far Northern Ohio, and Indiana.  For areas south of Route 6, this changeover will not happen until after late night hours, possibly as late as midnight, especially south of Route 30.  The area that has the most uncertainty right now is the U.S. 24 corridor, as models have not shown any consistency, and have not made it clear where this storm system will move to.  My current thinking is that this system is going to move just south of the area, putting us in the zone of the most intense lifting and warm air advection, which will delay the transition from rain to snow over areas south of U.S. 6.  If the storm does happen to move farther south than indicated, rain will change to snow much more quickly, and bring much higher accumulations to the area.  In the region of Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana, the highest snowfall totals will be observed right near the state line, with somewhat higher snowfall totals located over southern Michigan, and somewhat lower totals over far Northwest Ohio and Indiana.  A general 2-4 inches will fall over far Northern Indiana and Northern Ohio (north of Route 6), with around an inch in areas south of Route 6, with much higher totals of 6-12 inches over Lower Michigan into Detroit.  This forecast is highly uncertain as storms like these seem to surprise meteorologists in what they do, so this will be situation that I will be watching.  There is the possibility that the storm shifts south, with more substantial cold air advection in the area, causing a earlier changeover to snow and more substantial snowfall amounts.  I still see this as a possibility, but then again we would still have to worry about warm boundary layer temperatures (the layer from the surface to about three thousand feet above the surface), which would melt the snow causing a cold rain.  One thing that would help the possibility of wintry precipitation is initially dry mid level air, which with intense lifting, would cause intense cooling in the middle and lower layers of the atmosphere.  This would cause the atmosphere to become marginally unstable, causing convection, with initial rain from the convection changing over to snow.  This is why I would also expect some areas to see thunder and lightning with any convective band of rain or even snow.  If this forecast changes, I will write another post to update it.