Long Range Update and White Christmas possibility.

This morning, many of you probably woke up surprised to see it snowing.  Last night, I said that thermal profiles could be marginal for a sleet/snow/freezing rain event.  Well, I was right, sort of.  It turns out, thermal profiles were cool enough to support all snow in quite a few areas south of U.S. 6.  In Antwerp, the precipitation was all snow until it changed to rain around the noon hours, accumulating over an inch.  As you can see, this snow did not stick very well, as most of it has melted in this afternoon's light rain/drizzle, even with temperatures near 34.  As for the forecast through Thursday, expect rain showers becoming more numerous tonight, as a low pressure system heads towards the area.  Rain and cloudy conditions will continue tomorrow, but with much warmer temperatures, nearing the upper 40's.  As is not surprising, this high will be well above normal, nearly 13 degrees above normal for this time of year.  Right now, I am really sick and tired of this rain and warmth.  I just want it to be cold and snowy like it was last year.  More than likely this won't happen until after this storm passes through.  Even with the passage of the cold front (or whatever's left of it), temperatures will drop but not as much as with a normal cold front.  I would expect by Thursday, temperatures will be rather mild, in the mid 40's but dropping quite rapidly throughout the night, into the mid or upper 20's.  Temperatures in the Friday and Saturday time period will be much closer to normal, around the mid 30's.  During this same time frame, we will have our last chance at a white christmas before the day itself.  At this time it will all depend on the track of a storm system from the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently indicated to track northeast along the East Coast by the ECMWF.  If the ECMWF comes to light, I would expect us to get the tail end of a huge snowstorm, with moderate snow possible.  If this were true, snowfall amounts will be in the range of 2-4 inches on Christmas Eve or Christmas Eve night.  After that, very cold air will enter the region and cause daytime highs on Christmas and Monday to be in the mid and upper 20's.  If the GFS's forecast would verify, snow will fall around here, but not nearly as much as what the ECMWF and DGEX are forecasting.  The GFS has a very progressive forecast, meaning that it is keeping snowfall to a minimum, because it moves storms very quickly across the United States.  I'm actually starting to side with the GFS forecast, mainly because of the teleconnections.  The NAO is in a positive regime and so is the AO, supporting the pattern of a warmer, more progressive weather pattern than what the ECMWF is indicating.  Either way its still going to get cold around here by Christmas, with details on how long it will last are not clear at this time.  According to the latest North Atlantic Oscillation ensemble forecasts, the NAO will be on a down turn, indicating that the long expected winter pattern will finally arrive by January.  It is really unclear at this time how and when that this pattern change will take place, but if the stratosphere will end up warming in the next couple of weeks, then this pattern change will likely take place by the very beginning of December.  Right now it looks like it might take a while, but I really do think the pattern change will come, leading to a very snowy and possibly cold January and February.  As for the La Nina influence, I have do have good news (for snow lovers that is!).  According to the monthly SOI values (Southern Oscilliation Index, a positive phase indicates a La Nina, negative phase indicates an El Nino), the La Nina has been steadily strengthening over the last several months, leading me to believe that even wetter conditions will become more prevalent in January and February, along with colder temperatures.  This is really good news.  But if the teleconnections do not support this, its going to take a lot before a major storm hits around here, so hopefully they cooperate. As for the rest of this winter into spring 2012, the latest CFSv2 model runs are showing very wet conditions throughout the entire Ohio Valley and Great Lakes through at least June.  This correlates rather well with the strengthening of the La Nina and the teleconnections.  The CFSv2 is also forecasting a near normal January (some of the ensembles are forecasting warmer than normal temperatures, but I think that if the teleconnections line up right, temperatures will actually be opposite of this.) So it could either way.  For February, it is forecasting below normal temperatures along with above normal temperatures causing above normal snowfall.  Stay tuned for further updates.