Another Forecast Update

Models last week at this time were showing a snowstorm over the area right about now.  Models four days were showing a mostly snow event with some rain and sleet.  Once again, models one or two days ago were showing a mix event.  Models yesterday were showing an all rain event for the area.  Today, models are showing a mix event for the area tonight through Tuesday night.  My take on this storm is that a cold front will move through tonight, causing temperatures to drop.  This will allow for a mix event by the very early morning hours of Tuesday morning, with sleet, freezing rain, and snow all possible.  As temperatures warm throughout the day, the wintry mix should give way to rain showers, and possibly heavier rain if the storm decides to take a farther northward track (which is not likely at this time.).  Therefore, I have lowered rainfall amounts from a half inch to an inch, to about a quarter of an inch for Tuesday, with some areas especially southeast of U.S. 24, picking up at the most a half inch.  Right now, with way the models are going, these rainfall amounts may still be a little high, but you never know.  By Tuesday night and Wednesday, temperatures will have warmed up enough to allow for all rain and more rain will move into the area.  By Wednesday, temperatures will likely rise into the mid and upper 40's, with some higher temperatures possible.  Wednesday will feature showers on the back side of the low, and maybe a switchover to snow if temperatures are cold enough.  For the rest of the week, periodic snow and/or rain showers will occur on a couple of other days.  This is where the forecast gets tricky once again.  Several computer models are once again trending toward a possible snowstorm over our area on Christmas Eve.  Some of these computer models are the ECMWF and the DGEX models.  The GFS is showing a storm moving quickly off shore of the East Coast, bringing in a very cold air mass for a large portion of the United States.  At this time, it is possible that see we a snow event on Christmas Eve, all depending on the timing of a storm moving from the Gulf of Mexico northward.  Right now, several models have been showing an east coast storm, but if the general trend of a westward and northward shift happens, then I would expect a major snowstorm over the area.  If this doesn't happen, expect a few lake-effect snow showers and temperatures falling into the lower 30's and upper 20's, which could bring a few areas a dusting of snow.  All of these are possibilities.  Stay tuned for further updates.