After yesterday's snowfall, snow accumulations ranged from about one inch in Fort Wayne, to about one and one half inch in Antwerp, to more than two inches over some parts of Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio. This indicates that my forecasted snowfall amounts were higher than what actually happened. I anticipated this, mainly because of a dry slot moving through around 10 p.m. last night. This shut off the steady snow earlier than what short range models were anticipating. Overall, I think that my forecast for this storm was more accurate than last week's first snowstorm of the season. As I explained yesterday, cloud cover lingered all day today, mainly because the upper level storm system is not moving very quickly to the east. Because of this, another piece of energy in the upper level westerlies will quickly phase with this system right along the east coast by Wednesday Night. This will cause a rapid deepening of the low pressure system just off the east coast. This storm seems very similar to what happened back in October with the Halloween Blizzard. During normal Nor'easters, cold air precedes the storm system in a shallow wedge of cold air ahead of the warm front, making the East Coast a favorable location for heavy snow and sleet. In this system, because the teleconnections don't seem to be cooperating with the entire weather pattern, warm air will precede the storm. This will likely make most of the precipitation rain before a rapid changeover to heavy snow in quite a few locations from Virginia through Southeast New York through Maine. Maine will likely see the heaviest snow, because cold air will come before the storm hits, causing most if not all of the precipitation to be snow. At the same time this storm system is hitting the east, a very sharp and pronounced arctic cold front will move into our area from the northwest Thursday afternoon. Because of preceding chilly air, expect all precipitation to be snow Thursday Night into Friday. Right now it is unclear how much snow will get from this system, but because of limited moisture moving into the system (due in part to the East Coast storm), I expect only a narrow band of light to moderate snow to move through before the passage of the cold front. This could cause some snowfall accumulations of around an inch or two especially in Southern Michigan. In most of our area, expect snowfall of around inch or less. After the cold front moves, temperatures will fall rapidly from the lower 30's on Friday, to the mid teens Friday Night. Personally, I think that temperatures will be colder than this, due to the nature of this air mass, a true arctic air mass. Combined with fresh powdery snowfall and clear skies, temperatures COULD fall into the lower teens. The colder it gets Friday night, the colder the highs will be on Saturday. If temperatures fall to levels that I have forecast, highs on Saturday will barely make it above 25 on Saturday. Some areas might not make it above 23 on Saturday. This will make for the coldest air of the season. Sad thing is, the cold air will not last long, as yet another disturbance in the upper levels makes its way into the Midwest, shooting much warmer air into the region by Sunday and Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will probably in the mid 30's under partly sunny skies. By midweek next week, another major storm system will be possible. At this time it looks like it will be a mostly snow event, with the possibility of rain and sleet mixing in at times. According to the GFS, precipitation will start off as snow, then change to rain or freezing rain for a short time, then change back to snow, and probably become heavy at times late next week. If this solution becomes more probable as the event comes nearer, then I would not be surprised with snowfall amounts of around a foot, especially if the teleconnections line up (they could, you never know). Right now, it does look probable that we would get snow, as the weather pattern looks probable for snow. Even if only a few inches or nothing comes, the GFS is forecasting extremely cold air to enter the United States. This time, instead of the polar vortex shifting southward (such as in the arctic outbreak this weekend), the teleconnections will more than likely line up for a major cold air mass to enter into the United States via the Upper Plains and Midwest. This situation will have to be monitored for the possibility of a major snow storm and cold outbreak.
As for the information on this year's snow season. Going with the pattern that has been prevalent the past month or two, I expect a very wet winter this year, even more so than what I was originally predicting. I am also expecting temperatures to be not as cold as originally predicted, but there will be much more variation in temperature this year than last year, making for a very stormy winter. Therefore, I have raised overall snowfall amounts for this winter. I do not want to release snowfall amount projections, mainly because long-range snowfall amounts are almost never right. I can tell you right now, I even think this winter will be snowier than last winter. We are already much above normal for snowfall, with 5.2 inches falling Fort Wayne, nearly 5 inches falling in Antwerp, and other areas such as Defiance just about 2.5 inches for the winter season. In fact, we have already had more snow than South Bend has, and they also have yet to see snow accumulating this winter. Typically, when a season starts out above normal for snowfall at Fort Wayne, then snowfall amounts throughout the entire winter season will be above normal. If they start out below normal there is no correlation between any extreme during the winter season. My forecast is calling much above normal snowfall for this area throughout the winter, with the heaviest snowfall and cold air coming in late January through February. December will probably turn out near normal for temperatures and above normal for snowfall and precipitation. Stay tuned for further updates.
As for the information on this year's snow season. Going with the pattern that has been prevalent the past month or two, I expect a very wet winter this year, even more so than what I was originally predicting. I am also expecting temperatures to be not as cold as originally predicted, but there will be much more variation in temperature this year than last year, making for a very stormy winter. Therefore, I have raised overall snowfall amounts for this winter. I do not want to release snowfall amount projections, mainly because long-range snowfall amounts are almost never right. I can tell you right now, I even think this winter will be snowier than last winter. We are already much above normal for snowfall, with 5.2 inches falling Fort Wayne, nearly 5 inches falling in Antwerp, and other areas such as Defiance just about 2.5 inches for the winter season. In fact, we have already had more snow than South Bend has, and they also have yet to see snow accumulating this winter. Typically, when a season starts out above normal for snowfall at Fort Wayne, then snowfall amounts throughout the entire winter season will be above normal. If they start out below normal there is no correlation between any extreme during the winter season. My forecast is calling much above normal snowfall for this area throughout the winter, with the heaviest snowfall and cold air coming in late January through February. December will probably turn out near normal for temperatures and above normal for snowfall and precipitation. Stay tuned for further updates.
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