After many consecutive runs of indicating some kind of "major" storm system later this week, models have finally reached general agreement on the track of the storm system itself. Other issues such as intensity, precipitation, and thunderstorms still need to be sorted out, but over all, we are reaching a model consensus on when and where this storm will form. The timing issues that need to be sorted out are related to the mesoscale movement of the cold front into the area, which will be discussed on Tuesday and Wednesday.
And now, on to the model run-down.
12z GFS takes a shift west and south with Saturday's system, while at the same time weakening its overall amplitude and anomalous structure [instead of having a 540-546 DM core at 500 MB, it has a 552-558 DM core]. It will be some time before the GFS quits shifting the intensity and track of the system, but I think I can get a general track and intensity of the system.
The storm will likely track from Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado into Eastern Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. From both the latest runs of the GFS and the ECMWF, it appears the storm will have a maximum strength at occlusion near 1000-996 MB [if the wave is as amplified as currently forecast; right now, there are only moderate differences on the issue of amplitude; all that needs to be watched now is differences in run to run consistency] in the Western Great Lakes region before translating eastward across the Great Lakes and into Ontario.
I'll keep watching this, especially on WV imagery, as that will help determine how well the models are currently handling the wave.
More details coming later on this potential storm system.
And now, on to the model run-down.
12z GFS takes a shift west and south with Saturday's system, while at the same time weakening its overall amplitude and anomalous structure [instead of having a 540-546 DM core at 500 MB, it has a 552-558 DM core]. It will be some time before the GFS quits shifting the intensity and track of the system, but I think I can get a general track and intensity of the system.
The storm will likely track from Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado into Eastern Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. From both the latest runs of the GFS and the ECMWF, it appears the storm will have a maximum strength at occlusion near 1000-996 MB [if the wave is as amplified as currently forecast; right now, there are only moderate differences on the issue of amplitude; all that needs to be watched now is differences in run to run consistency] in the Western Great Lakes region before translating eastward across the Great Lakes and into Ontario.
I'll keep watching this, especially on WV imagery, as that will help determine how well the models are currently handling the wave.
More details coming later on this potential storm system.
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