Post-Christmas New Map and Forecast

This is my latest map update for the upcoming storm after Christmas. As for the clipper coming Christmas Eve night into Christmas, I'm not worrying much about it, as it looks to produce some light snow, with the possibility of 1-2 inches of snow/sleet across the area. It could allow for a white Christmas, but it will all depend on the track of the weak shortwave.

This is the GEFS mean from 00z last night. It's indicating a very good potential for a significant snowstorm across most, or all of the region on Wednesday.

As for the more important storm, let me get to the details. Models are forecasting a strong shortwave trough to eject from the Rocky Mountains by Monday. A jet streak will enter the trough from the west, causing the system to rapidly to deepen. As it does so, the surface storm will gradually consolidate in Eastern Texas and Louisiana (making it prime for gathering copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico). Here's where model differences come into play. Last night's 00z ECMWF model run was "stubborn" and kept the storm on the farther east track; one that would take the surface storm from Louisiana to far Eastern Tennessee and North Carolina, before transfering up the coast. In fact, it would be a very similar scenario to what the UKMET is showing with a coastal "hugger". Regardless, all models besides the Euro trended at least somewhat west, so its only a matter of time before it does. The GEFS ensemble members are farther west as well, which puts us in a prime position to safely assume that my farther north track on the map will verify. Now that I've discussed the "important" issues, let's get on with the details.

First of all, based on the map I made at the top of the post, I believe the most likely track of the storm will occur from Northeastern Texas, into Central Tennessee and Kentucky, and eventually tracking into far Eastern Ohio and West Virginia. That's my north track. I believe it may be just a hair south, and due to the Euro "holding" with its farther east solution, I will say that the track will be just about 50 miles south of my north track of the storm. This would mean moderate to heavy wet snow for the area on Tuesday night through Wednesday night. I expect most of the snow to fall during the day on Wednesday, but because high temperatures will likely be in the upper 20's, we won't have to worry about conditions being too warm for snow. One thing we may have to worry about, especially with the further north track of the storm, is the potential for sleet and freezing rain. Both the GFS and now the NAM are suggesting that parts of the area could see freezing rain/sleet for a short period of time Wednesday, mainly south of Route 30. Because we are still a ways out from the storm (3.5 days), models will resolve the details in coming days. In fact, right now, I would expect little or no freezing rain/sleet, especially if the track is in between the two forecast "solutions". I won't quite release snowfall totals yet, but at the current time, I would bet on a decent 5-10 inches of snow across the area; 5 inches across Southern Michigan, and 6-10 inches in most of NW Ohio and NE Indiana.

For further updates on both the Christmas Day clipper system and the potential significant winter storm, visit my facebook page at Northwest Ohio Storm Prediction Center.