After reviewing the ensemble runs of the GFS and Euro model, as well as looking at teleconnection forecasts, I can see that there is going to be a MAJOR shift in the storm track over the next several weeks.
First of all, the NAO, which is the North Atlantic Oscillation, will transition to its positive phase this week, after being strongly negative for almost two months. This is a significant trend, and may not be a good trend for a cold winter across the area. The positive phase features a ridge centered on, or just off of the East Coast. "Coupling" with this positive phase of the NAO, will be the PNA, which is the Pacific North American index. The PNA will likely be in its negative phase at the same time the NAO will be in its positive phase, likely resulting in a strong West Coast trough. Another teleconnection I am watching is the AO, which is very similar to the NAO, but it is determined by the arctic stratospheric circulation. In this case, when the AO is in its positive phase, which it will be for the next few weeks, a strong jet stream results over North America, especially in occurence with a negative PNA and positive NAO pattern. Last winter, a positive NAO in combination with a neutral AO allowed for a split flow jet stream. With this upcoming weather pattern for most of November, a strong jet stream will be in place across the country, allowing for occasional strong storm systems to traverse the nation, the first one being this weekend and early next week, which will bring a wave of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Most of these storm systems will likely cause brief warm ups, which will bring periods of rain to the area. After these storm systems pass through, transient cold waves will move into the area, bringing periods of well below normal temperatures. This type of a weather pattern most reflects November 2010. In fact, I believe that this could be a positive factor in cold, snowy conditions across the U.S. this year (unlike last year).
In my opinion, this indicates that the Midwest is about to get quite a bit stormier, with frequent storm systems bringing the chance for snowstorms across the Upper Midwest, and severe weather outbreaks in the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley.
In all, expect this: The pattern will transition from a blocked, slow upper level wave pattern, to a transient (including a strong Pacific jet stream), highly variable weather pattern, including periods of warm and cold weather. Ultimately, this is a bit different from last year. Last year, blocking was in place, it just set up in the wrong places.. I believe that this fall and winter will most likely resemble the fall and winter of 2010. Do not be discouraged with warm patterns, because it is likely that a cold pattern will follow. Follow Northwest Ohio Storm Prediction Center for more information on the upcoming weather pattern.
First of all, the NAO, which is the North Atlantic Oscillation, will transition to its positive phase this week, after being strongly negative for almost two months. This is a significant trend, and may not be a good trend for a cold winter across the area. The positive phase features a ridge centered on, or just off of the East Coast. "Coupling" with this positive phase of the NAO, will be the PNA, which is the Pacific North American index. The PNA will likely be in its negative phase at the same time the NAO will be in its positive phase, likely resulting in a strong West Coast trough. Another teleconnection I am watching is the AO, which is very similar to the NAO, but it is determined by the arctic stratospheric circulation. In this case, when the AO is in its positive phase, which it will be for the next few weeks, a strong jet stream results over North America, especially in occurence with a negative PNA and positive NAO pattern. Last winter, a positive NAO in combination with a neutral AO allowed for a split flow jet stream. With this upcoming weather pattern for most of November, a strong jet stream will be in place across the country, allowing for occasional strong storm systems to traverse the nation, the first one being this weekend and early next week, which will bring a wave of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Most of these storm systems will likely cause brief warm ups, which will bring periods of rain to the area. After these storm systems pass through, transient cold waves will move into the area, bringing periods of well below normal temperatures. This type of a weather pattern most reflects November 2010. In fact, I believe that this could be a positive factor in cold, snowy conditions across the U.S. this year (unlike last year).
In my opinion, this indicates that the Midwest is about to get quite a bit stormier, with frequent storm systems bringing the chance for snowstorms across the Upper Midwest, and severe weather outbreaks in the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley.
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| GFS ensembles indicate a strong Pacific jet stream in the long range, including a strong West Coast trough. |
In all, expect this: The pattern will transition from a blocked, slow upper level wave pattern, to a transient (including a strong Pacific jet stream), highly variable weather pattern, including periods of warm and cold weather. Ultimately, this is a bit different from last year. Last year, blocking was in place, it just set up in the wrong places.. I believe that this fall and winter will most likely resemble the fall and winter of 2010. Do not be discouraged with warm patterns, because it is likely that a cold pattern will follow. Follow Northwest Ohio Storm Prediction Center for more information on the upcoming weather pattern.
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