Either tonight or tomorrow I will be releasing Northwest Ohio Storm Prediction Center's official and FINAL winter outlook for the winter of 2012-2013. Even though this forecast center mainly focuses on weather across the region, this forecast will deal with EACH region of the United States.
This forecast will be primarily based off of long term climate signals, including the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation) phase, atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic, SST anomaly patterns across the North Pacific and North Atlantic, the current storm track and jet stream pattern, and the solar cycle. Many other factors MUST be taken into consideration. A few of these variables are very hard to forecast more than two weeks out, mainly including the atmospheric blocking signals, which will be determined in the next few weeks.
I will also include in part of my forecast about what the climate models are forecasting for the upcoming winter as well. Some of these models differ considerably from my forecast, and several of them coincide rather well.
This forecast should be done sometime this week.
As for a sneak peek into the forecast here's a few things of what I expect:
This forecast will be primarily based off of long term climate signals, including the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation) phase, atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic, SST anomaly patterns across the North Pacific and North Atlantic, the current storm track and jet stream pattern, and the solar cycle. Many other factors MUST be taken into consideration. A few of these variables are very hard to forecast more than two weeks out, mainly including the atmospheric blocking signals, which will be determined in the next few weeks.
I will also include in part of my forecast about what the climate models are forecasting for the upcoming winter as well. Some of these models differ considerably from my forecast, and several of them coincide rather well.
This forecast should be done sometime this week.
As for a sneak peek into the forecast here's a few things of what I expect:
- Quite possibly a slow start to winter
(December could end up being very warm across a good majority of the United States, except for the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest). - NO past years match up quite well with this year
- Data points to a back-loaded winter regardless of winter's start (This means that a harsh January and February is likely).
- Periods of record warmth, are just as likely this winter as brutal cold, making it a very VERY changeable winter.
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