*IMPENDING PATTERN CHANGE ON THE HORIZON*
If you haven't heard yet, meteorologists are now looking at the possibility of an impending weather pattern change across a large portion of the United States. In fact, winter could begin impacting the United States rather quickly, especially after Thanksgiving (including shots of Arctic air).
Here's what's going to happen. Next weekend (after Black Friday), models generally agree that a strong upper level disturbance will move along the Canadian border and deepen. This will draw very cold arctic air southward as the low begins to close off. The cold Arctic air will drain southward into Iowa and Illinois on Friday and Saturday, before shifting eastward Saturday and Sunday into the Ohio Valley and East. Thermal profiles will favorable enough for the potential for a lake effect snow event along Lake Michigan, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The heaviest lake effect (of a few inches or so) will occur in the Eastern Great Lakes region, where the coldest air will likely reside over the Lakes. This Arctic wave will only be transient, and only a sign of things to come.
Next week, there is a general agreement between the ensembles and operational models that a more substantial and robust pattern could be taking shape. Currently, models disagree considerably on the magnitude, strength and track of this storm, which reveals the uselessness of model forecasts at this point in time. Based on the data I have seen, it's looking more and more likely that a strong Midwestern low will develop in the Central Plains, and move east-northeast into the Great Lakes. At this point, it is very difficult to determine the exact track of this low, or even if this low will occur, but what could and is the most likely to happen at this point is that the storm pulls extremely cold Arctic air southward behind the storm. This could in fact come into contact with moisture wrapping around the intense low pressure system, bringing a potential "blizzard" from Iowa, to Nebraska and Minnesota.
AT this point, it is not all that likely that this occurs, due to the model variability, BUT given the current signals, it is a possibility. Needless to say, behind this system's *massive* cold front, very cold air will settle into a very large portion of the Midwest, and East. In fact, at this point, due to several unfavorable signals, the worst of the below normal temperature anomalies will stay north in the Great Lakes and Midwest regions.
For our area, here's what's likely to happen: This weekend, a cold front will quickly pass through the region, dropping temperatures back into the mid and upper 30's and possibly colder if the Euro's forecast were to verify. This would likely spark numerous lake effect snow showers immediately downwind of Lake Michigan. This could in fact lead to a few snow flurries around the region by Saturday night. In everything though, this cold blast will not last long. In fact, it will last only a couple of days before getting pushed out of the region. After that, model uncertainty has lead to an uncertain forecast, and all I can say is that the pattern is likely to get a lot colder soon.
Again, this is not a forecast that is set in stone, only the most likely scenario.
Since we won't have to deal with this for about a week, have a great Thanksgiving!
If you haven't heard yet, meteorologists are now looking at the possibility of an impending weather pattern change across a large portion of the United States. In fact, winter could begin impacting the United States rather quickly, especially after Thanksgiving (including shots of Arctic air).
Here's what's going to happen. Next weekend (after Black Friday), models generally agree that a strong upper level disturbance will move along the Canadian border and deepen. This will draw very cold arctic air southward as the low begins to close off. The cold Arctic air will drain southward into Iowa and Illinois on Friday and Saturday, before shifting eastward Saturday and Sunday into the Ohio Valley and East. Thermal profiles will favorable enough for the potential for a lake effect snow event along Lake Michigan, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The heaviest lake effect (of a few inches or so) will occur in the Eastern Great Lakes region, where the coldest air will likely reside over the Lakes. This Arctic wave will only be transient, and only a sign of things to come.
Next week, there is a general agreement between the ensembles and operational models that a more substantial and robust pattern could be taking shape. Currently, models disagree considerably on the magnitude, strength and track of this storm, which reveals the uselessness of model forecasts at this point in time. Based on the data I have seen, it's looking more and more likely that a strong Midwestern low will develop in the Central Plains, and move east-northeast into the Great Lakes. At this point, it is very difficult to determine the exact track of this low, or even if this low will occur, but what could and is the most likely to happen at this point is that the storm pulls extremely cold Arctic air southward behind the storm. This could in fact come into contact with moisture wrapping around the intense low pressure system, bringing a potential "blizzard" from Iowa, to Nebraska and Minnesota.
AT this point, it is not all that likely that this occurs, due to the model variability, BUT given the current signals, it is a possibility. Needless to say, behind this system's *massive* cold front, very cold air will settle into a very large portion of the Midwest, and East. In fact, at this point, due to several unfavorable signals, the worst of the below normal temperature anomalies will stay north in the Great Lakes and Midwest regions.
For our area, here's what's likely to happen: This weekend, a cold front will quickly pass through the region, dropping temperatures back into the mid and upper 30's and possibly colder if the Euro's forecast were to verify. This would likely spark numerous lake effect snow showers immediately downwind of Lake Michigan. This could in fact lead to a few snow flurries around the region by Saturday night. In everything though, this cold blast will not last long. In fact, it will last only a couple of days before getting pushed out of the region. After that, model uncertainty has lead to an uncertain forecast, and all I can say is that the pattern is likely to get a lot colder soon.
Again, this is not a forecast that is set in stone, only the most likely scenario.
Since we won't have to deal with this for about a week, have a great Thanksgiving!
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