Well, it turns out that weak upper level disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico may have a much more profound effect on our weather by Monday and Tuesday. By my forecast reasoning, I expect that the weak upper level circulation will shift northward and weaken. The circulation of the strong upper level trough over Canada (as seen on water vapor imagery) coupled with the weakening low over the Gulf of Mexico, will enhance deep moisture transport northward from the Gulf of Mexico, especially after mid-morning Monday. In my opinion, models are still too fast with the cold front progression through the area, which is why they continually forecast temperatures much cooler than Sunday. With a slower frontal progression (due to lack of upper level support), clouds will take a little longer to reach the region. With deep moisture in place by Monday at noon, conditions may feel humid and uncomfortable, with dew points approaching the upper 60's and lower 70's by late afternoon. By 5 or 6 in the afternoon, depending on the strength of upper level forcing, numerous showers and thunderstorms look to form in the moist air mass, which could hit the area for several hours. This time, with a lack of deep layer shear, slower frontal progression, and strong storm relative inflow, some areas in the region (especially east of Fort Wayne) could see heavy rainfall amounts, especially in the overnight hours Monday. Usually, lack of strong upper level storm-relative winds cause slow storm movement and back-building storms, which enhance rainfall amounts. Also, precipitable water values will be over 2 inches, which indicates an unusually moist air mass. In some areas, this might turn out to be the heaviest rainfall since January!
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