Much Warmer Weather.

We will not have to worry about cooler weather probably for quite a while, as most of the arctic air has shifted to the very northern reaches of the earth, with westerly winds in Canada keeping the coldest air "locked" up.  This will also mean a lack of strong storm systems, meaning that any severe weather and for that matter, rainfall will be rather limited most likely through the rest of the month.  I still expect chances for thunderstorm complexes on the edges of upper level ridges (commonly called the "Ring of Fire").  This doesn't even seem that likely this year, especially with how quickly these ridges of warm air expand eastward, pushing most rainfall into the Northern United States and into Canada.  As for the next few days, expect sunny skies with our hot June sun, allowing for rather warm temperatures.  Tomorrow, Saturday, June 9, 2012, expect highs to jump into the lower 90's with excellent fire weather.  I would definitely recommend not planning any bonfires tomorrow, as the relative humidity will likely drop to around 20% by afternoon, combined with the much above normal temperatures, and already drought conditions across most of the area, this would make for large wildfires if anything gets out of hand. By Sunday, I would not worry as much about fire weather, as I expect return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will cause dew points to rise into the lower 60's, which would cause much higher relative humidity.  Besides that, I expect highs likely rising above what the MOS guidance would have, with highs approaching 92 or 93.  Increasing mid level clouds and higher moisture content will only allow temperatures to drop into the upper 60's and lower 70's.  On Monday, depending on the amount of cloud cover and thunderstorm development, temperatures will likely make to at least the mid or upper 80's, especially east of Fort Wayne.  Moisture will be on the increase, but I have a hunch that computer models are overdoing the amount of moisture present, which probably means that guidance may also be overdoing cloud cover and thunderstorm activity, especially with how far north the system will be located (Central Canada).  More than likely, the strongest areas of lift will occur well north of the area, and with lower moisture, most areas will probably receive some rain, but not a whole lot, if any.  This will likely lead to a worsening of drought conditions across the area. An upper level low (a rather weak one at that) could lead to enhance moisture transport into the region, which could bring a better chance for rain, but at this time, I really don't think that is all that likely.  In opinion, most of the rainfall will end by noon Tuesday (if it hasn't already).  If most places do not get much rain, I expect dry conditions to continue well into next week, with temperatures in the low 80's for a few days before yet another heat wave appears on the horizon, which at this time appears to reach the area by Friday and Saturday, bringing 90+ heat to the region.  This next heat wave looks quite a bit more incredible than the one this weekend, for several reasons.  One, with the incredibly dry conditions continuing, along with the intense June sun, temperatures can rise rapidly.  Two, a break in the Atlantic block, and then a restrengthening of the block will keep a strong ridge located over the area for at least several days, allowing for warm temperatures and sunny skies to prevail.  Three, moisture transport will be rather limited into the region (even though dew points may be quite high on some days), which will allow for limited cloud cover and virtually no thunderstorms.  Four, even if moisture transport is enhanced, thunderstorms will not be likely, as a mid level cap from subsiding air within the zone of high pressure will limit little or any clouds.  All in all, this will all just act to enhance the ongoing dry conditions across the area, with moderate or severe drought likely overspreading the region by mid or late June (assuming little or no rainfall).  For the most up to date information: visit Midwest Drought Monitor.