Over the past few days, some areas in Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio received beneficial rain. Though, it wasn't nearly enough to vanquish the drought, the plants and grass are just a tad bit greener, making everything seem more beautiful. I don't about any of you who live around here, but in the town of Antwerp, I have estimated that there was about a quarter of an inch that fell within the town. With the rain came quite a bit of lightning also, which was really neat since we haven't had any real thunderstorms since the beginning of May.
As for the weather pattern over the next few days, expect near record high temperatures for today, and tomorrow. It is possible that Thursday we see highs in the low to mid 90's, but it also depends on the amount of cloud cover and how fast the cold front moves through the region. Right now, I would expect highs on Thursday to reach near 90, given our dry soils and warm low level temperatures. For today, the 500 millibar ridge will amplify considerably, with 500 millibar heights already approaching 590 dekameters. This amplification will cause strong subsidence (also coupled with subsidence from the right exit region of the jet streak located over Northern Minnesota) over the region, allowing for completely clear skies by afternoon, and combined with nearly maximum insolation from the sun (remember tomorrow is the longest day of the year), will cause temperatures to jump to near 100 yet again. The good news is that this extreme heat will cause strong mixing within the planetary boundary layer, mixing dry air aloft to the surface, reducing humidity and dew point values, making the heat more bearable. It is possible that subsidence is so strong that it will not allow for the mixing of drier air to the surface, but this is not a good possibility. As the ridge axis shifts off to the east, I am expecting that a more humid and moist air mass will move into the region for tomorrow afternoon and evening, making it feel quite a bit more uncomfortable. By tomorrow, the ridge will reach maximum strength, with 500 millibar heights approaching 594 dekameters. This will cause temperatures to be very similar to today's, with highs tomorrow probably a few degrees cooler into the mid 90's. The 00z ECMWF is showing an expansive area of 20 degrees Celsius temperatures at the 850 millibar level over the area by tomorrow afternoon, which would allow for warmer temperatures than what I am forecasting. On Thursday, the cold front will approach the area, causing moisture pooling (a term which refers to the fact that dew points tend to increase ahead of a front.) and a more humid air mass. By the time we get to afternoon, depending on the speed of the cold front, temperatures will likely reach the lower 90's. As the cold front approaches and passes through the region, expect only a few showers, as upper level forcing and low level convergence will be lacking. By Friday, temperatures will moderate into middle 80's with mostly sunny skies.
By next week, things get very interesting with a large closed low system over eastern Canada and New England, which may be stuck in that position for a while. With atmospheric blocking continuing across the Atlantic, the trough that will eject out of the plains and into Canada will not be allowed to progress (all of this depends on the actual strength of blocking over Canada, in fact blocking is expected to weaken considerably over the next week or so, leaving this forecast completely invalid.). Here is where models are all over the place. The ECMWF has an incredibly strong closed low retrograding with the pattern into New England, and even south into the Appalachian Mountains. At this point, it seems very unreasonable for this to happen, as the degree of atmospheric is not that strong, and it doesn't look to get stronger with time. Also, the ECMWF has a tendency to be too strong on cool air invasions, especially during the summer time, so even if this trough were to progress south and westward, our high temperatures would still reach the low to middle 80's, especially given the drought conditions (usually troughs of low pressure bring periods of heavy rain to areas, but given the dry air mass out of Canada, we'll be lucky if we even get a few clouds out of it.). Depending on the extent of the atmospheric blocking, the trough will begin to weaken by early to mid next week, and shift out of the region, according to the GFS, which has had a good handle on the weather patterns lately. This will allow the entire pattern to shift, with the ridge over the Central Plains eventually shifting into our area, bringing us yet another heat wave by the beginning of July. Have a great day!
As for the weather pattern over the next few days, expect near record high temperatures for today, and tomorrow. It is possible that Thursday we see highs in the low to mid 90's, but it also depends on the amount of cloud cover and how fast the cold front moves through the region. Right now, I would expect highs on Thursday to reach near 90, given our dry soils and warm low level temperatures. For today, the 500 millibar ridge will amplify considerably, with 500 millibar heights already approaching 590 dekameters. This amplification will cause strong subsidence (also coupled with subsidence from the right exit region of the jet streak located over Northern Minnesota) over the region, allowing for completely clear skies by afternoon, and combined with nearly maximum insolation from the sun (remember tomorrow is the longest day of the year), will cause temperatures to jump to near 100 yet again. The good news is that this extreme heat will cause strong mixing within the planetary boundary layer, mixing dry air aloft to the surface, reducing humidity and dew point values, making the heat more bearable. It is possible that subsidence is so strong that it will not allow for the mixing of drier air to the surface, but this is not a good possibility. As the ridge axis shifts off to the east, I am expecting that a more humid and moist air mass will move into the region for tomorrow afternoon and evening, making it feel quite a bit more uncomfortable. By tomorrow, the ridge will reach maximum strength, with 500 millibar heights approaching 594 dekameters. This will cause temperatures to be very similar to today's, with highs tomorrow probably a few degrees cooler into the mid 90's. The 00z ECMWF is showing an expansive area of 20 degrees Celsius temperatures at the 850 millibar level over the area by tomorrow afternoon, which would allow for warmer temperatures than what I am forecasting. On Thursday, the cold front will approach the area, causing moisture pooling (a term which refers to the fact that dew points tend to increase ahead of a front.) and a more humid air mass. By the time we get to afternoon, depending on the speed of the cold front, temperatures will likely reach the lower 90's. As the cold front approaches and passes through the region, expect only a few showers, as upper level forcing and low level convergence will be lacking. By Friday, temperatures will moderate into middle 80's with mostly sunny skies.
By next week, things get very interesting with a large closed low system over eastern Canada and New England, which may be stuck in that position for a while. With atmospheric blocking continuing across the Atlantic, the trough that will eject out of the plains and into Canada will not be allowed to progress (all of this depends on the actual strength of blocking over Canada, in fact blocking is expected to weaken considerably over the next week or so, leaving this forecast completely invalid.). Here is where models are all over the place. The ECMWF has an incredibly strong closed low retrograding with the pattern into New England, and even south into the Appalachian Mountains. At this point, it seems very unreasonable for this to happen, as the degree of atmospheric is not that strong, and it doesn't look to get stronger with time. Also, the ECMWF has a tendency to be too strong on cool air invasions, especially during the summer time, so even if this trough were to progress south and westward, our high temperatures would still reach the low to middle 80's, especially given the drought conditions (usually troughs of low pressure bring periods of heavy rain to areas, but given the dry air mass out of Canada, we'll be lucky if we even get a few clouds out of it.). Depending on the extent of the atmospheric blocking, the trough will begin to weaken by early to mid next week, and shift out of the region, according to the GFS, which has had a good handle on the weather patterns lately. This will allow the entire pattern to shift, with the ridge over the Central Plains eventually shifting into our area, bringing us yet another heat wave by the beginning of July. Have a great day!
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