Many of you probably have heard by now, but a large portion of Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana have been updated by the Drought Monitor and put in the severe drought category. Included with the upgrade was the possibility that this may end up as a long term drought, which is one that lasts longer than six months. This may very well happen, as I have described before, atmospheric blocking has been rather strong for the past two months, and when blocking patterns come into place, drier weather and more extreme weather is usually the result. This is one of the main reasons for the drought. Other reasons include but are not limited to developing El Nino conditions around the globe causing a shift in the jet stream patterns, very warm winter and very warm and dry spring, and changing long-term climate variables. These factors have all combined to create the worst drought in the area since 2007 and possibly since 1988. In fact, just to get back to normal, we need about 7 to 8 inches of rain in a short amount of time and we need 9-12 inches of rain to get out of the drought! That does not look like its going to happen very soon. Remember, the worse the drought the hotter it gets, and the hotter it gets the worse the drought gets.
As for the general medium range pattern that will persist across the area, by tonight and tomorrow and strong upper level shortwave will clear the area, forcing the cold front through the area, and dropping temperatures into the low to mid 80's under sunny skies for tomorrow. By Saturday and Sunday, a rather large longwave trough will build itself into the area, as an arctic cold front moves into the main wave over Northern Canada. This will cause the entire longwave to shift southward into New England and Eastern Canada. Compared to previous model runs, the entire pattern looks to settle farther east than originally expected so I would expect temperatures to remain a few degrees warmer than the upper 70's. By the very end of June and beginning of July, the ridge will finally begin to build into the area, allowing temperatures once again to soar into the 90's.
As for the general medium range pattern that will persist across the area, by tonight and tomorrow and strong upper level shortwave will clear the area, forcing the cold front through the area, and dropping temperatures into the low to mid 80's under sunny skies for tomorrow. By Saturday and Sunday, a rather large longwave trough will build itself into the area, as an arctic cold front moves into the main wave over Northern Canada. This will cause the entire longwave to shift southward into New England and Eastern Canada. Compared to previous model runs, the entire pattern looks to settle farther east than originally expected so I would expect temperatures to remain a few degrees warmer than the upper 70's. By the very end of June and beginning of July, the ridge will finally begin to build into the area, allowing temperatures once again to soar into the 90's.
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