Record Breaking Warmth Overspreading the Nation.

As I have said over the last several days, the wave of warmth overspreading the nation will be record-breaking in many aspects.  Even in our local area it will be unprecedented.  Temperatures will approach record highs for several days this week, and even well into next week.  For example, tomorrow, it is possible that temperatures reach the upper 70's and lower 80's in some areas (depending on how cold it gets tonight, especially if a weak frontal boundary sags farther south than what is expected).  This high is calculated based on using 850 millibar temperatures.  The idea behind it is that during a regular spring or summer day, the wind and solar heating will cause the entire boundary layer (the first several thousand feet from the surface) to mix out, allowing warm air aloft to mix to the surface.  I will show you how I did my math.  If you assume that the warm aloft is brought to surface by the Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate (the rate at which the temperature of air changes as it is moved up or down.  On Earth, this lapse rate is approximately 10 degrees Celsius/kilometer), and if you can determine how far above the earth the 850 millibar layer is, you can find the surface temperature for that day.  Assuming that the 850 millibar temperature is 12 degrees Celsius and its height was 1530 meters (which is the conditions that will be existent tomorrow across the area), then you would add 15.3 degrees Celsius to 12 degrees ( first divide 1530 by 1000 , multiply that by 10 to get 15.3), yielding a high of 27.3 degrees Celsius or 81 degrees Fahrenheit.  You would not be able to use that number alone because we are above sea level by 200 meters or 720 feet, which would cause the actual high to be a couple of degrees cooler.  Since we are not that far above sea level, it will not make much a difference, considering the fact that even warmer air aloft could be transported to the surface, making this high temperature forecast true.  So after a high somewhere in the upper 70's on Wednesday, expect the development of scattered thunderstorms after midnight in northern areas, mainly in Michigan.  These storms will eventually develop southward, bringing the thunderstorm potential to most of the area by Thursday morning and afternoon.  This type of pattern will continue into Saturday, before large scale height rises in the upper atmosphere, cause an enormous ridge to develop that extends as far north as the Hudson Bay.  This will lead to a widespread surge of tropical moisture and warmth into the area, including temperatures into the upper 70's and lower 80's next week, along with very moist air.  Even most of the severe weather by the middle of next week will be concentrated in Oklahoma and Kansas, by the end of next week, severe weather may move into our area as a potent storm system affects the region.  Enjoy this warmth while it lasts, as this event is very rare and only happens every decade or so.