Important Update

I have been monitoring the latest trends in the storm system, and it looks like the severe threat could extend farther south than what was indicated this morning.  Upper level forcing is expected to move over the area in a few hours, causing the development of strong thunderstorms to our northwest over southwest lower Michigan and Northwest Indiana.  This thunderstorms will more than likely only sideswipe most areas that are south of Route 6, with a much more robust severe weather threat north of Route 6.  The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail, but tornadoes are also beginning to look like a possibility especially just north of the Michigan border.  Instability is on the increase west of us, and should soon develop in our area, as the area of clearing moves in.  Temperatures have warmed very nicely despite cloud cover.  As soon as clouds move out, I expect temperatures to jump several degrees, possibly just shy of 70.  Tonight, thunderstorms will impact the area after about 7 or 8 p.m.  These thunderstorms could be severe, but mainly north of Route 6.  Tomorrow will be a very nice day with temperatures in the upper 60's and lower 70's as upper level ridging builds into the region.  Light winds and a dry air mass will promote intense cooling Tuesday night, with temperatures falling into the mid 40's, instead of the mid 50's.  Despite this, temperatures on Wednesday will soar to near record levels, with most regions in the area hitting the middle 70's, under sunny skies.  By Wednesday Night, a stalling frontal boundary will approach the region, causing the development of scattered thunderstorms.  These storms probably will not be severe, but they could cause locally heavy rainfall in some areas, due to the highly moist air mass expected to arrive in the area.  Thursday, Friday, Saturday, upper level ridging will only get stronger, even with a series of shortwaves moving around it.  These individual shortwaves will initiate thunderstorms along the frontal boundary in Michigan, which will be a continual threat through Saturday.  These storms could also bring locally heavy rainfall.  At the same time, the rather moist and warm air mass will still remain across the area, keeping temperatures in the lower 70's and nighttime lows above 55.  Just to show how warm this air mass, I will tell you a little fact.  According to the National Weather Service, a nighttime low of 55 or warmer in mid-March has only occurred TWICE in Fort Wayne's 110 years of record keeping.  The forecast for the next week or so is showing at least five days could have lows above 55 degrees (mainly Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.).  Next week, the ridge will amplify, causing an even greater surge of tropical air into the region.  In fact, it could get so warm by Monday and Tuesday, some areas could be seeing temperatures as high as 80 degrees!  Many March's in the last 30 years haven't even seen a 70 degree day.  Back in 2008, we were well below average and very snowy.  This  is how extreme the weather pattern has been.  The GFS is showing a quick end to the "heat wave" by the 24th of March, with a potential freeze. It is highly unlikely that this cold wave will last long at the end of March, especially given the current pattern.  Opposite the GFS, the ECMWF model is showing that the ridging will hold, allowing the warmth to continue.  I will continue to monitor this very nice late-spring weather in coming days, as we could see several temperature records broken!