Pattern change update!

Many meteorologists have already given up on the fact of a pattern change, especially as most long-range ensemble forecasts offered little hope this week for sustained cold in the U.S. through the 25th of January.  But an interesting piece has come up, that may be our last hope for a major reversal into a winter like last year.  According to the latest Climate Prediction Center ensembles, the Arctic Oscillation is expected to take a major nosedive to near record low values (-4 to -5).  This would cause a second major weakening of the polar vortex, allowing brutal arctic to drain out of the arctic.  This major nosedive is expected to happen now, and in the next several days, and really bottom out by the 25th of January.  Right now, this could be our last major hope for a recovery of below normal temperatures for long periods of time and snowy conditions.  The sad thing is is that most of the long range operational models are not showing any kind of long term cold in the next two weeks.  But if the arctic oscillation were to go as strongly negative as it is expected to, than expect some major cold (and of course snow) in about a week or so.  Before that happens, operational models are expecting a major warm up into the lower and middle 50's by Sunday of next week, before a potentially a very strong arctic cold front, along with a strong low pressure system pulls extremely cold air out of the depths of Alaska, which is currently where the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere.  This is good news, because if Alaska had not been cold this winter, we wouldn't have had any type of snow or snow event so far this winter, and since the cold air in Alaska will keep building right through February, expect more sustained arctic outbreaks and snow events.