Snowfall Update

Looking at the latest short range models, snowfall will likely continue later than what I was thinking on Sunday.  These models are showing that snow will not end over most of the area until late this afternoon mainly east of Fort Wayne.  This is good news for snow lovers, because a longer snowfall event could cause heavier snowfall accumulations.  My forecast of 2-4 inches will still hold for most of the area, with these amounts mainly in Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio.  Another thing that has shown up as a possibility that short-range models are not picking up on is mesoscale banding of the snow.  When this happens, heavier snowfall rates will fall causing heavier snowfall totals.  The National Weather Service is concerned that as the main band of snowfall (currently west of here) shifts eastward, strong upper level dynamic forcing combined with frontogenetical lifting along the surface cold front will cause temperatures to fall into the lower 30's for most of the day allowing for snow to stick easily on roads and grassy surfaces.  This intense lifting will cause a very heavy band of snow to form over parts of the area.  Right now the National Weather Service is saying that the threat area stretches from Huntington through Fort Wayne and right along U.S. 24 through Antwerp and right up to Toledo.  If this heavy band of snow would set up, many areas could see up to 4-6 inches of snow.  This seems a little high but it is a possibility.  This band will likely set up around 1 or 2 p.m. and continue for a couple of hours before tapering off in the early evening east of the Indiana/Ohio line.  Tonight, with fresh snowfall, temperatures will fall into the lower 20's and possibly upper teens.  By tomorrow, a fresh polar air mass will be in place across the area, which will cause temperatures to barely make it into the the 30's, with some areas in the upper 20's.  Later this week, another warm up into the 40's will occur, after a clipper brings some light snow to the area.  By New Year's Day, a major trough will set up in the Central Plains, causing a major storm system to form by Sunday and Monday.  At this time, this will likely impact the area with heavy rainfall, but with rapidly falling temperatures with the passage of the storm.  I will keep you updated on this storm threat next week.