Merry Christmas to everybody who reads this blog, thank you for coming to listen and read my forecasts everyday. I hope everyone has a great Christmas even without the snow on the ground. As for last minute updates to next week's winter storm potential, it looks like the heaviest snow totals will be along and south of U.S. 24. At this time I would expect at least 2-4 inches of snow, and possibly a lot heavier amounts if the upper level moisture tongue can reach into our area, enhancing the heavy snowfall. Some of the latest models have trended the storm southward, but this may not end up happening as the NAO is still positive and the AO is negative, causing the southeast ridge to push westward. At this time, precipitation will start out as mixed Monday night, then quickly change over to all snow after 2 a.m. and snow will persist throughout most of the day Tuesday before tapering off late Tuesday afternoon and evening. As I said before, snowfall totals will primarily be dependent on how cold it is and the track of the storm. The snow will begin at an ideal time for snow accumulations, at night, so it will accumulate faster. Second of all, temperatures Monday night, will be in the mid to upper 20's, allowing for freezing rain, sleet, and snow to mix in and then changing to all snow. The trickiest part of the forecast will be the track of the storm. If the track of the storm is further south, I expect snowfall totals to be light, and accumulate to about an inch, or we may end up getting nothing. If the storm track is farther north, then I expect heavier precipitation totals, along with heavier snowfall accumulations possibly in the range of 4-7 inches or more (this last point depends on if the storm phases with the jet stream faster, and becomes stronger, because if this happens, the storm will track farther northward.) This will be my last update until probably tomorrow afternoon, just before the storm hits. Have a safe and Merry Christmas, praising the Lord and his birth!
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