Forecast Update

According to the latest 06z GFS run, a rather large area of Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana may see as much as 1.5-2 inches of rain from the storm on Tuesday.  Depending on where the heaviest band of rain sets up, this forecast may verify.  But the last several runs of the GFS model have shown the storm trending slightly southward, bringing the heaviest rain south of a line from Auburn to Toledo.  If the models continue trending south, I will drop this line to Fort Wayne to Toledo.  Another than that, it looks like skies will be clearing out Wednesday, with partly cloudy skies by afternoon.  Temperatures will be rather cool as the front moves through the area, with highs only expected to hit the low 40's and possibly upper 30's, if the cold front is strong enough.  By Thanksgiving Day, an upper level ridge is expected to build into the area, bringing above normal temperatures once again in the lower 50's to lower 60's.  Skies will also range from partly to mostly sunny.  By Friday, the ridge will have moved so that southerly flow develops aloft helping to warm surface temperatures.  If the warming is strong enough, I expect that temperatures will reach into the lower 60's, with increasing clouds throughout the day.  By Saturday, a major trough will develop in the plains, bringing stormy conditions back to the area.  According to the GFS, heavy rain and thunderstorms appears likely Saturday into Sunday.  THIS has remained consistent for the past several runs, which makes me think there might be a major storm system this weekend.  At the end of the storm, there looks to be snow developing, with colder surface and upper air temperatures.  This snow could turn heavy enough for our first accumulating snow of the year.  The greatest snowfall accumulations will occur north of a line from Fort Wayne to Toledo.  But remember this is a week from now, so this all may change by then.  After this I expect several major troughs to develop across the Midwest, bringing widespread cold and snowy conditions with each shortwave that moves around the base of these troughs.  Hopefully, by later this afternoon, I will release my long-range forecast update for December, as things look pretty interesting for next month.  Stay tuned for further updates.