Monday, October 17, 2011

Wild storm forecast this week. Heavy rain, high winds, and even snow!

According to computer forecast models, a large storm may develop as a low in the southern plains moves northeastward bringing with it heavy rain.  This storm system will initially weaken, as indicating by the GFS model, as it moves northeast into southern Ohio, bringing rain and breezy conditions to the area.  After that the model forecasts that a rather intense low pressure system will develop just off the east coast of North Carolina, while a secondary low develops in Kentucky and moves due northward.  The secondary low is the one that will concern us, as the East Coast low will likely remain at an intensity of 992 millibars or weaken as it heads up the East Coast.  The secondary low over Kentucky will likely move due northward, right into Central Ohio.  As it moves northward, the GFS model predicts that the low will deepen to about 981 millibars while it is over Sandusky, Ohio.  During this time period, I believe that we will have heavy rain, which could eventually accumulate to 2-3 inches by Thursday evening when the rain is expected to end.  As the low deepens, I also expect wind speeds to increase rapidly, especially Wednesday into Thursday.  I believe sustained winds may be as high as 35 or 40 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph, but there is much uncertainty in this forecast.  During the night Wednesday, there is the possibility that the rain changes over to moderate to heavy wet snow for short period of time, possibility accumulating in some areas, but this is pretty unlikely as the air mass will likely be too warm for any snow.  But, if the low pressure system and the rain sticks around for longer than previously thought, there could be a period of time where it snows on Thursday night, as temperatures will likely approach freezing.  Even without the snow, prepare for an exciting week as heavy rain and high winds will likely disrupt your plans.

No comments:

Post a Comment