Saturday, September 24, 2011

Official Weather Forecast Through Tuesday.

This forecast is based on MOS guidance, current conditions, and trends.
Sunday: High 68.  Mostly cloudy. Scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm, becoming more widespread and numerous by late afternoon and evening.  Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday Night: Low 58.  Overcast. Widespread, numerous showers and thunderstorms, in the form of bands of rain and storms swinging through the area.  Chance of rain 95%.  Heavy rainfall possible.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches possible in some areas.
Monday: High 70.  Mostly cloudy to Overcast.  Widespread rain and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming scattered and light by afternoon, with some breaks in the clouds. Chance of rain 60%.
Monday Night: Low 53.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially after midnight.  Chance of rain 50%.  Rain will generally increase in coverage in the later evening hours. Rainfall amounts 0.25-0.4 inches.
Tuesday:  High 65. Mostly cloudy to overcast. Numerous showers in the morning, giving way to widespread light rain in the afternoon.  Chance of rain 60%.  Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25-0.5 inches.
Long-range; Wednesday through Friday: On Wednesday, the upper level low over the area will have moved east of the area.  This will allow skies to clear up and to allow some sunshine into the area for Wednesday afternoon.  By Thursday, expect partly cloudy conditions and highs in the 70's.  By Friday, expect slightly cooler temperatures due to a colder air mass moving into the region.  Highs on Friday will be in the upper 60's.
Synoptic forecast: The upper level low will finally move out of the area by Wednesday afternoon and become part of the mean flow aloft, meaning it will finally dissipate.  Over the next week or so, several shortwaves will move over the area causing several storm systems to form, even though we will be in a warmer pattern.  Then, according to computer models, a major longwave trough will develop over the East Coast.  After this the shortwaves rounding the peak of the ridge in the west will cause the eastward progression of the strong ridge of high pressure from the West to the East, which will influence the much warmer temperatures expected to move into our area.

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