Friday, September 23, 2011

Break for Tonight. Returning by Saturday Night. Warming trend later

As you may have noticed, the clouds have generally cleared in the last couple of hours as originally forecast.  I expect that conditions should remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout the night, with only a very slight chance of showers.  As the upper level low progresses westward, tomorrow will start out with partly to mostly cloudy conditions along with light winds.  By late afternoon, showers will pop again, as a southerly flow aloft will direct air with greater moisture content into the area.  By nightfall, rain chances will increase, with the added possibility of thunderstorms especially after midnight.  Any rainfall that falls will be light to moderate with the most amount of rain falling will be around 0.5 inches or less (Locally higher amounts possible, but not likely).  By Sunday, rain will be likely (60to 80% chance), with the rain becoming widespread by afternoon.  Thunderstorms will also be likely.  This could cause rainfall amounts to be on the heavy side, up to one inch on Sunday.  Sunday Night, overcast conditions with continued bands of rain is expected.  According to MOS data, rainfall will lighten up Sunday Night, therefore there won't be as much rain.  I expect only 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain Sunday Night.  By Monday, the rain will redevelop with an even higher likelihood for rain and thunderstorms.  Rain could be pretty heavy on Monday, with rainfall of 0.75 inches to 1.5 inches possible.  By Tuesday, the possibility of scattered thunderstorms will continue, with much lighter rainfall amounts than in recent days.  The possibility of scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm will continue into Wednesday, before clearing up, as the upper level low associated with this rain moves northeast into Canada.  This will allow the stagnant pattern to break up and move along more swiftly, causing multiple storm systems to affect the region after next week.  Before then, we are expected to experience a short dry period for a few days.

Here is the general forecast through Monday:

Tonight: Low 44.  Partly to Mostly cloudy.  slight chance of showers.  Chance of rain 20%.
Tomorrow: High 65. Mostly Cloudy.  Chance of scattered showers, becoming more widespread by early evening.  Chance of rain 50%.
Tomorrow Night: Low 50.  Overcast throughout the night.  Widespread rain showers likely, possibly becoming a steady rain overnight.  Chance of rain 65%. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches.
Sunday: High 67.  Overcast most of the day.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms, more so in the afternoon after 2 p.m.  Chance of rain 65%.  Rainfall amounts 0.75 in. to 1.00 in.
Sunday Night: Low 53. Overcast.  Showers and thunderstorms likely, widespread throughout the area.  Chance of rain 80%. 
Monday: High 68. Mostly cloudy to Overcast.  Showers and thunderstorms likely, widespread throughout most of the day.  Chance of rain 70%.
Friday through Sunday precipitation amounts

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