Forecast Update and Analysis.

surface pressure map

Currently, a very large band of rain is barreling down on Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio.  This band of rain is producing generally light to moderate, with pockets of some heavier rain.  Generally, expect little or no severe weather in the area, mainly because the initial conditions that were supportive of severe thunderstorms have moved out of the area.  Any thunderstorms that do become severe, will probably become severe east of Defiance.  East of Defiance, many areas have a pretty good chance of getting of hit by severe thunderstorms, unless other factors come into play.  The instability that was originally forecast to be over the area, never came about.  This is probably because dew points are a lot lower than I was expecting this morning.  So expect widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms for the next several hours, before the rain clears up for the most part at least for a few hours.  The forecast is calling for conditions to be overcast for the first part of the night tonight and then gradually become mostly cloudy by the early morning hours before the next round of showers arrive.  Here is the synopsis: the low pressure system currently over the U.P. of Michigan will slide southeastward as it intensifies.  The intensification process will be aided by the rapidly falling 500 millibar height falls, a strengthening of the troughs and upper level lows in each mandatory pressure level, and a very cold Canadian air mass.  It currently has a surface pressure of 996 mb, and it is forecast to deepen to low pressure of 992 millibars before its gradual weakening trend kicks.  At its lowest surface air pressure reading, the center of the surface system will be located over central Michigan.  By Friday afternoon, this low pressure system will begin to move into New York state and towards the east coast, where by that time it will have weakened to a 998 millibar low, which is still pretty intense.  With the tight pressure gradient expected with this system, I believe that we could sustained winds of 25-30 mph early Friday morning and wind gusts of 35-40 mph possible.  In areas close to Lake Michigan, expect sustained winds of 30-40 mph, and wind gusts to 60 mph.  This, combined with high temperatures in the lower 50's, showery, cloudy conditions, will make for a very uncomfortable day on Friday.  Friday Night, expects to clear up especially after midnight, which allows the possibility of frost, as temperatures are expected to drop into the mid and upper 30's, especially in areas that are east of Fort Wayne.  Saturday, expect sunny conditions, along with light winds, but with temperatures in the lower 50's also.  By Saturday Night, we will have our greatest potential for frost, as temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to mid 30's, and along with light winds and clear skies, temperatures may even drop to near freezing.  On Sunday through Wednesday, expect a significant warming trend, as large upper level ridge moves over the area.  On Sunday and Monday expect temperatures in the lower to middle 60's, while Tuesday hits the low to mid 70's, while even further yet, Wednesday we could see highs in the upper 70's. (Yes!)