As I said in an earlier post this month, I won't be posting as much because I'm working on a new Wordpress site, and I'm still trying to transfer articles from this page onto that one. But for now, I'll occasionally post on this blog and on my FB page. I am also a blogger on another significant weather page, so you can follow me at www.wildaboutweather.com.
I have a few concerns this morning.
First, the area had some light freezing rain last night, leading to icy surfaces just about everywhere. At this time, most schools across the area have closed and nearly all have delayed. Be careful out there! Temperatures should rise throughout the morning hours, so by noon, icy roads should be gone. The potential for snow, sleet and rain will continue into the afternoon, before tapering off later this evening.
After this, a weak cold-front will move through, dropping temperatures back into the 20's. This is when yet another system will begin to impact the area.
At this time, however, not much is known, and any rumor that you have heard about a "major snowstorm" is probably wrong. No forecast scenario shows a "major snowstorm" and many of the forecast solutions show only a short period of light-moderate snow on Sunday. However, there is a LOT of disagreement between forecast models at this point, and so we really can't rule anything out.
Going against the grain of the European and the American model, I believe there is enough evidence to support my growing confidence that a strengthening system will track through the Ohio Valley, and then transfer to the coast. This means that many areas from the Central Plains through the lower Great Lakes and Northeast could see some sort of winter-weather event. Whether it will be a "significant snowstorm" or a period of light snow has yet to be determined.
Model guidance such as the long-range NAM is showing the potential for a much more significant storm. So are the Canadian and British guidance [CMC and UKMET]. The GFS is taking the middle ground with only a moderate snow-event for areas from Chicago to Indianapolis, Detroit, and Cleveland [and everywhere in between]. However, given that there is very little confidence at this point, we really don't know what's going to happen. The only thing I can say is that I will be monitoring the potential for a winter-storm and it *COULD* be significant.
I will have more details over the next few days.
I have a few concerns this morning.
First, the area had some light freezing rain last night, leading to icy surfaces just about everywhere. At this time, most schools across the area have closed and nearly all have delayed. Be careful out there! Temperatures should rise throughout the morning hours, so by noon, icy roads should be gone. The potential for snow, sleet and rain will continue into the afternoon, before tapering off later this evening.
After this, a weak cold-front will move through, dropping temperatures back into the 20's. This is when yet another system will begin to impact the area.
At this time, however, not much is known, and any rumor that you have heard about a "major snowstorm" is probably wrong. No forecast scenario shows a "major snowstorm" and many of the forecast solutions show only a short period of light-moderate snow on Sunday. However, there is a LOT of disagreement between forecast models at this point, and so we really can't rule anything out.
Going against the grain of the European and the American model, I believe there is enough evidence to support my growing confidence that a strengthening system will track through the Ohio Valley, and then transfer to the coast. This means that many areas from the Central Plains through the lower Great Lakes and Northeast could see some sort of winter-weather event. Whether it will be a "significant snowstorm" or a period of light snow has yet to be determined.
Model guidance such as the long-range NAM is showing the potential for a much more significant storm. So are the Canadian and British guidance [CMC and UKMET]. The GFS is taking the middle ground with only a moderate snow-event for areas from Chicago to Indianapolis, Detroit, and Cleveland [and everywhere in between]. However, given that there is very little confidence at this point, we really don't know what's going to happen. The only thing I can say is that I will be monitoring the potential for a winter-storm and it *COULD* be significant.
I will have more details over the next few days.
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