Short-Term Forecast

County warning map for today from the NWS

After a mostly clear night across the area, temperatures have dropped into the mid-20's for most of the area. Even so, mostly clear conditions this morning should begin to give way to partly to mostly cloudy skies by the afternoon as the cold front passes through the area in the vicinity of an upper-level vorticity lobe [which, if it "deepens" correctly, could provide slightly more forcing for snow showers along and behind the front later this afternoon and evening]. Cold air advection behind the front will be strong enough to keep temperatures from rising much past the lower 30's and upper 20's today, with temperatures likely in the low to mid 20's by the late afternoon and evening. Behind the front, we will see a brief period of snow showers, which could produce a brief accumulation of up to a half inch or an inch in some areas, but generally, accumulations should range between a dusting and an inch. Later tonight, extremely large delta-T's across Lake Michigan [between the surface and 850 MB, as well as the surface and 700 MB] will produce several convective snow-bands across the main lake effect areas; this time in North-Central Indiana, and SW. Michigan, which is why the NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch with the possibility of 3-7 inches of snow or more in these areas. Farther east and south, although we are not likely to see much in the way of lake-effect snow, we could still see periods of snow showers in the overnight hours, possibly with some additional light accumulations, if anything.

However, by Sunday, snow showers should be tapering off, and giving way to a bitterly cold day [bitterly cold by November's standards], with highs only reaching the mid-20's across the area. With warm-air advection and rising upper-level heights, expect conditions to begin warming by Monday, with highs back into the low-mid 30's. On Tuesday and Wednesday, yet another system will be approaching the area [which will influence the development of a possibly strong "coastal-runner", or a low that will track along the East Coast and produce a heavy snowstorm in the Interior Northeast], allowing for the possibility of snowfall and cloud-cover once again. Although models are still in disagreement over whether we will see any precipitation, I believe moisture profiles and dynamics will be strong enough to produce at least light snow across the area, especially Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, I will continue to monitor this system. By Thanksgiving, temperatures will be dropping back into the upper 20's and lower 30's for highs, making it one of the colder Thanksgiving days that we've seen since perhaps 2007. However, by next weekend, temperatures should be rebounding once again as another flattening ridge builds into the region. BUT, this "warm-up" [into the upper 30's and lower 40's at the warmest] will not last long, as a series of storm-systems will be approaching from the North American West Coast, which will cause another cold-front to dive into the region by the end of the 10-day period. But like I have said before, things are still uncertain on what exactly will happen, so I will keep you updated.