First of all, I would like to say that once again, I am incredibly sorry for not posting lately; I've been busy with school, and looking at colleges [just FYI, I am going into meteorology for my undergraduate studies], and I just haven't found the time to post on here [apart from my Facebook "debates"]. I will attempt to be more reliable and consistent on posting over the next few weeks and months [especially considering that we have an interesting weather pattern that could begin our winter season this year]. So, if I do not post for several weeks, its probably because I'm busy with school; don't worry. Just follow me on Twitter or on NWOSPC's Facebook page, where I post updates at least once a week. I will also be revising my forecast technique, so that I can write posts that are more understandable to the general public, so as to increase communication to those who follow what I write. Hopefully this will improve the amount of people following this blog of mine.
Secondly, I would like to briefly comment on the weather pattern; it appears that we will see a brief "taste" of winter [dare I say] for most of next week; a major Arctic front is expected to dive down from the Eastern Canadian Prairies, and right into the Great Lakes region, with brisk, gusty north winds causing temperatures to drop rapidly on Monday and Tuesday; in fact, high temperatures should struggle to make it above 32 on Wednesday, and possibly Thursday if the cold air mass decides to stick around for a bit longer. Other than that, we have the slight possibility of lake effect snow showers, and thus the possibility for a brief dusting of snow on Tuesday and Wednesday. After Wednesday, temperatures will begin to moderate into the upper 30's and lower 40's, with temperatures likely returning to near normal by the weekend. The pattern thereafter appears to be warming up a lot for this time of year, with the return to a zonal, progressive pattern, and repeated waves of warmer Pacific air into the region. However, it seems that a *real* pattern change will occur either at the very end of November, and/or early-mid December, which could give us a very decent introduction to winter.
Finally, the winter pattern looks rather conducive to a volatile pattern this year; especially in regards to temperatures. As for precipitation, I expect more than normal precipitation, with a higher frequency of storm systems through the Ohio Valley, leading to an increased chance for wintry precipitation and snow. However, there will be varying periods of warmth and cold during the winter [much more than usual], which would in fact allow for periods of rain and flooding as well. Overall, I expect this winter to end-up near normal temperature wise for the area, with above-normal precipitation, and most likely above-normal snowfall. My confidence level? I'm at best 20% confident on this; the analogues and other data is not at all clear as to what exactly is going on; and once again, there is no real parallel with any other year. However, I will continue to monitor what is going on, and I will continue giving brief updates on what I expect.
Secondly, I would like to briefly comment on the weather pattern; it appears that we will see a brief "taste" of winter [dare I say] for most of next week; a major Arctic front is expected to dive down from the Eastern Canadian Prairies, and right into the Great Lakes region, with brisk, gusty north winds causing temperatures to drop rapidly on Monday and Tuesday; in fact, high temperatures should struggle to make it above 32 on Wednesday, and possibly Thursday if the cold air mass decides to stick around for a bit longer. Other than that, we have the slight possibility of lake effect snow showers, and thus the possibility for a brief dusting of snow on Tuesday and Wednesday. After Wednesday, temperatures will begin to moderate into the upper 30's and lower 40's, with temperatures likely returning to near normal by the weekend. The pattern thereafter appears to be warming up a lot for this time of year, with the return to a zonal, progressive pattern, and repeated waves of warmer Pacific air into the region. However, it seems that a *real* pattern change will occur either at the very end of November, and/or early-mid December, which could give us a very decent introduction to winter.
Finally, the winter pattern looks rather conducive to a volatile pattern this year; especially in regards to temperatures. As for precipitation, I expect more than normal precipitation, with a higher frequency of storm systems through the Ohio Valley, leading to an increased chance for wintry precipitation and snow. However, there will be varying periods of warmth and cold during the winter [much more than usual], which would in fact allow for periods of rain and flooding as well. Overall, I expect this winter to end-up near normal temperature wise for the area, with above-normal precipitation, and most likely above-normal snowfall. My confidence level? I'm at best 20% confident on this; the analogues and other data is not at all clear as to what exactly is going on; and once again, there is no real parallel with any other year. However, I will continue to monitor what is going on, and I will continue giving brief updates on what I expect.
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