After a very cool, and somewhat rainy, Memorial Day weekend. expect a nice reprieve from this dreary weather into a very warm, sunny, and possibly humid weather pattern. Temperatures will increase into the mid and upper 80's under the influence of a strengthening upper level ridge, and with increasing flow from the Gulf of Mexico, the warmer temperatures combined with higher moisture could lead to widespread thunderstorm development by the weekend.
Since we all know that good things can't last forever, I'm here to also inform you that this period of "hot" weather will not likely last all that long. A weak trough looks to become "stuck" in an increasingly "split-flow" pattern, which will allow for a cooler "pocket" of air to drift around the Great Lakes region by Sunday and Monday. This will cause temperatures to drop back into the mid-70's for the end of the weekend.
BUT, do not despair. Long-range models have consistently indicated that an even warmer blast of air is on the way, starting next Tuesday. As the weak trough exits the region, ridging will build in from the West, sending the hot EML eastward. This will override a cooler, but moist surface air mass, but as soon as full insolation commences, mixing in the PBL will draw some of this warmer air downward, and allowing hot temperatures to prevail once again. It appears very likely that 850 millibar temperatures may approach or exceed 20 degrees Celsius during this next surge of heat; making it all the more likely that we exceed 90 degrees.
But what does this mean for the rest of the summer? Based on the current trends, its becoming apparently obvious that the rest of the summer may not be as "incredibly hot" as it has been in the previous three years. Although this is subject to change, its likely that instead of seeing average temperatures above normal by 5-7 degrees, its likely that our summertime average will only be 1-3 degrees above average. Now, it is too early to judge how the rest of the summer will turn out, especially in light of the fact of what happened last year (very, very cold beginning to June; but the rest of the summer turned out to be outrageously hot), but I think its safe to assume that this type of pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. This means that June will likely see a fair number of 90 degree days (3-5 days?), while July will probably see slightly more than normal 90 degree days (12-15 days?). Even so... I expect that this summer will feature a "backloaded" summer; i.e. it will remain quite hot even into September, unlike the previous three years.
Since we all know that good things can't last forever, I'm here to also inform you that this period of "hot" weather will not likely last all that long. A weak trough looks to become "stuck" in an increasingly "split-flow" pattern, which will allow for a cooler "pocket" of air to drift around the Great Lakes region by Sunday and Monday. This will cause temperatures to drop back into the mid-70's for the end of the weekend.
BUT, do not despair. Long-range models have consistently indicated that an even warmer blast of air is on the way, starting next Tuesday. As the weak trough exits the region, ridging will build in from the West, sending the hot EML eastward. This will override a cooler, but moist surface air mass, but as soon as full insolation commences, mixing in the PBL will draw some of this warmer air downward, and allowing hot temperatures to prevail once again. It appears very likely that 850 millibar temperatures may approach or exceed 20 degrees Celsius during this next surge of heat; making it all the more likely that we exceed 90 degrees.
But what does this mean for the rest of the summer? Based on the current trends, its becoming apparently obvious that the rest of the summer may not be as "incredibly hot" as it has been in the previous three years. Although this is subject to change, its likely that instead of seeing average temperatures above normal by 5-7 degrees, its likely that our summertime average will only be 1-3 degrees above average. Now, it is too early to judge how the rest of the summer will turn out, especially in light of the fact of what happened last year (very, very cold beginning to June; but the rest of the summer turned out to be outrageously hot), but I think its safe to assume that this type of pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. This means that June will likely see a fair number of 90 degree days (3-5 days?), while July will probably see slightly more than normal 90 degree days (12-15 days?). Even so... I expect that this summer will feature a "backloaded" summer; i.e. it will remain quite hot even into September, unlike the previous three years.
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