**MAJOR WARM-UP ON THE WAY FOR THE END OF THE SCHOOL YEAR**
Finally.. After months of rather cold, dreary, wet, and sometimes snowy weather, we are finally looking at the possibility of a long stretch of warm-weather, which doesn't look like its going to come to an end any time soon. In fact, for the foreseeable future (10-14 days), temperatures should remain above normal, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70's, to the mid-80's. In fact, I would not doubt that during one or two of the warmer periods that we see a 90 degree day.
With this stretch of warmer weather, we can also expect periodic showers and thunderstorms, as shortwaves ride along quickly in the weaker upper level jet stream. Chances of thunderstorms will remain across the area everyday through at least Sunday. Although these chances for thunderstorms are relatively miniscule, they will still provide the area with brief heavy rainfall in isolated areas.
Let's look at the details now:
1.) Starting tomorrow, we can expect temperatures to reach the mid-70's and warmer for the foreseeable future. Models are in very good agreement on this (with the exception of the GFS, which will be explained later).
2.) A weak cold front will arrive in the area by late Wednesday night, which will drop temperatures from near 84 down to 77-78. Thunderstorms will accompany this front with scattered rainfall most likely at this time.
3.) Longer-range forecast models are currently predicting that this warmth will last through at least the weekend, with temperatures even rising back into the mid-upper 80's by Sunday/Monday. This is where model discrepancies come into play.
A.) The GFS is showing a strong low pressure system taking shape across the Northern Plains, driving a very warm-air mass into the area. If the GFS were to verify (as well as its winds and boundary layer forecasts), I would expect temperatures possibly exceeding 85-88 on Sunday. It also indicates that dew points will approach the MID-70's. This will create a very humid, and unstable air mass in the vicinity of a **possible** strong cold front Sunday night; allowing for a potential severe weather outbreak. Don't worry though.. This solution isn't all that likely.
B.) The ECMWF shows a relatively "lax" and moderate pattern. It indicates that we will periodic shortwaves move across the United States, which will bring scattered thunderstorm development. It is not expecting any major storm systems, and no waves of cool air. It is the warmest solution, as it keeps temperatures in the 70's, 80's, and possibly 90's for the entirety of its 10-day forecast.
At this point, I would give more weight to the ECMWF, as the overall pattern seems to be the case of what it is showing. Furthermore, its ensembles are in general agreement with it and the general pattern. It would suggest that later in the period, a strong trough will dig into the West, forcing height rises in the East, and thus a potential "heat-wave" by mid-next week.
Although I don't see any major rainfall events headed our way, scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday could lead to brief periods of heavy rainfall, and thus "ruining" some plans.
And as far as I can see, temperatures look to remain in the lower 80's and upper 70's for the next two weeks, with possibly warmer weather as well.
Finally.. After months of rather cold, dreary, wet, and sometimes snowy weather, we are finally looking at the possibility of a long stretch of warm-weather, which doesn't look like its going to come to an end any time soon. In fact, for the foreseeable future (10-14 days), temperatures should remain above normal, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70's, to the mid-80's. In fact, I would not doubt that during one or two of the warmer periods that we see a 90 degree day.
With this stretch of warmer weather, we can also expect periodic showers and thunderstorms, as shortwaves ride along quickly in the weaker upper level jet stream. Chances of thunderstorms will remain across the area everyday through at least Sunday. Although these chances for thunderstorms are relatively miniscule, they will still provide the area with brief heavy rainfall in isolated areas.
Let's look at the details now:
1.) Starting tomorrow, we can expect temperatures to reach the mid-70's and warmer for the foreseeable future. Models are in very good agreement on this (with the exception of the GFS, which will be explained later).
2.) A weak cold front will arrive in the area by late Wednesday night, which will drop temperatures from near 84 down to 77-78. Thunderstorms will accompany this front with scattered rainfall most likely at this time.
3.) Longer-range forecast models are currently predicting that this warmth will last through at least the weekend, with temperatures even rising back into the mid-upper 80's by Sunday/Monday. This is where model discrepancies come into play.
A.) The GFS is showing a strong low pressure system taking shape across the Northern Plains, driving a very warm-air mass into the area. If the GFS were to verify (as well as its winds and boundary layer forecasts), I would expect temperatures possibly exceeding 85-88 on Sunday. It also indicates that dew points will approach the MID-70's. This will create a very humid, and unstable air mass in the vicinity of a **possible** strong cold front Sunday night; allowing for a potential severe weather outbreak. Don't worry though.. This solution isn't all that likely.
B.) The ECMWF shows a relatively "lax" and moderate pattern. It indicates that we will periodic shortwaves move across the United States, which will bring scattered thunderstorm development. It is not expecting any major storm systems, and no waves of cool air. It is the warmest solution, as it keeps temperatures in the 70's, 80's, and possibly 90's for the entirety of its 10-day forecast.
At this point, I would give more weight to the ECMWF, as the overall pattern seems to be the case of what it is showing. Furthermore, its ensembles are in general agreement with it and the general pattern. It would suggest that later in the period, a strong trough will dig into the West, forcing height rises in the East, and thus a potential "heat-wave" by mid-next week.
Although I don't see any major rainfall events headed our way, scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday could lead to brief periods of heavy rainfall, and thus "ruining" some plans.
And as far as I can see, temperatures look to remain in the lower 80's and upper 70's for the next two weeks, with possibly warmer weather as well.
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