I am extremely sorry for the lack of updates!
THIS IS AN IMPORTANT UPDATE!
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night, based upon the latest trends. Models have continued to shift northward with this very dangerous severe weather threat. In fact, it would NOT surprise me if the SPC expands the MDT (Moderate) risk into most of the area (it currently resides west of our area), and places a high-end risk for Western Indiana/Eastern Illinois. At this time, based upon the latest observational and model trends, it looks likely that the warm front will surge northward this evening and tonight. Currently, the warm front resides in Central Indiana, and should continue pushing northward, before evaporational cooling caused by heavy thunderstorms forces the warm front to remain stationary during the night. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS VERY TRICKY! If thunderstorms do NOT form as expected, and head mainly north of us, I will expect a very quick passage of the warm front late this evening and early tomorrow morning. The warm front will bring very warm, and humid air to the region, with dew points approaching the mid-upper 60's tomorrow area wide. High temperatures under partly to mostly cloudy skies will approach 75-80 degrees, ESPECIALLY south of U.S. Route 6.
But.. For this post, I will deal with tonight's "precarious" threat. The SPC has issued a tornado watch for Western and North Central Indiana, all the way into Eastern Illinois. This deals with the very DANGEROUS threat for low-level vorticity and rotation along the warm front to couple with thunderstorms to produce tornadoes, and large hail (due to the very stable nature of the low level atmosphere, damaging winds will not be a primary concern.). But this is for Western Indiana. These storms will travel east-northeast into the region, producing heavy showers and thunderstorms later this evening. Although I don't expect much, if numerous thunderstorms develop, we could be looking at heavy rain tonight, instead of a drier night with a few showers. I will keep watch on this threat. Don't expect much rain, if any, before the 8 p.m. timeframe though.
As for tomorrow.. It's looking increasingly likely (as stated before), that dew points will increase into the upper 60's by late afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 70's. If this occurs, we can expect moderate to strong instability across the region, with the potential for discrete supercell thunderstorms, and squall line segments. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND UPON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. Don't get me wrong... The strongest potential WILL remain farther west at this time, but severe thunderstorms will still impact the area. I will continue to watch this, as the main threat could expand east (especially due to the very progressive nature of the cold front). Deep-layer shear will also be very conducive to tornadic development, and so we will have to watch for this threat. Other than that, tomorrow will be a very warm, humid day.
MORE UPDATES LATER.. STAY TUNED.
THIS IS AN IMPORTANT UPDATE!
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night, based upon the latest trends. Models have continued to shift northward with this very dangerous severe weather threat. In fact, it would NOT surprise me if the SPC expands the MDT (Moderate) risk into most of the area (it currently resides west of our area), and places a high-end risk for Western Indiana/Eastern Illinois. At this time, based upon the latest observational and model trends, it looks likely that the warm front will surge northward this evening and tonight. Currently, the warm front resides in Central Indiana, and should continue pushing northward, before evaporational cooling caused by heavy thunderstorms forces the warm front to remain stationary during the night. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS VERY TRICKY! If thunderstorms do NOT form as expected, and head mainly north of us, I will expect a very quick passage of the warm front late this evening and early tomorrow morning. The warm front will bring very warm, and humid air to the region, with dew points approaching the mid-upper 60's tomorrow area wide. High temperatures under partly to mostly cloudy skies will approach 75-80 degrees, ESPECIALLY south of U.S. Route 6.
But.. For this post, I will deal with tonight's "precarious" threat. The SPC has issued a tornado watch for Western and North Central Indiana, all the way into Eastern Illinois. This deals with the very DANGEROUS threat for low-level vorticity and rotation along the warm front to couple with thunderstorms to produce tornadoes, and large hail (due to the very stable nature of the low level atmosphere, damaging winds will not be a primary concern.). But this is for Western Indiana. These storms will travel east-northeast into the region, producing heavy showers and thunderstorms later this evening. Although I don't expect much, if numerous thunderstorms develop, we could be looking at heavy rain tonight, instead of a drier night with a few showers. I will keep watch on this threat. Don't expect much rain, if any, before the 8 p.m. timeframe though.
 |
| Current radar imagery |
As for tomorrow.. It's looking increasingly likely (as stated before), that dew points will increase into the upper 60's by late afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 70's. If this occurs, we can expect moderate to strong instability across the region, with the potential for discrete supercell thunderstorms, and squall line segments. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND UPON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. Don't get me wrong... The strongest potential WILL remain farther west at this time, but severe thunderstorms will still impact the area. I will continue to watch this, as the main threat could expand east (especially due to the very progressive nature of the cold front). Deep-layer shear will also be very conducive to tornadic development, and so we will have to watch for this threat. Other than that, tomorrow will be a very warm, humid day.
MORE UPDATES LATER.. STAY TUNED.
No comments:
Post a Comment