Overview of the Rain Event; Week's Outlook through March 19

I'm very sorry for not posting any updates this weekend, but now I will be posting more often.

As for today, periods of rain moved through the area for most of the morning and afternoon hours. At KFWA (Fort Wayne International Airport), approximately 0.5 inches of rain has fallen in the past 8 hours, but I will have to wait until the official release of today's weather observations later tonight to confirm this. Right now, rain has stopped over most of the area, mainly all areas west of Defiance, as the cold front slides through. Expect temperatures to fall back into the 30's as the cold front pushes through, and possibly an increase in gusty winds for a short time. 

Last hour's radar imagery

Tomorrow, expect much cooler temperatures than this morning, as a shallow polar air mass settles into the area for a brief time. Temperatures will dip into the lower 40's and upper 30's tomorrow areawide. By Wednesday, temperatures should drop even further to the mid and upper 30's under partly to mostly cloudy skies. An upper level trough will continue building as it digs into the area, allowing a reinforcement of the cold air Wednesday afternoon. Although it will not be significant, it could allow nighttime lows to drop below 20. By Thursday and Friday, the upper level trough will lift out of the region, bringing in a much warmer air mass, and a much flatter jet stream pattern. With this in place, a few weak shortwaves rounding the edge of a flat upper level ridge across the American Southwest could allow for periods of gusty winds, and even the chance for showers, especially if enough moisture gets involved. Temperatures will also begin approaching the middle 50's as well by Friday and Saturday.

After that, it is rather uncertain what will happen, given the relative lack of agreement among computer models, but its likely that we continue in a flatter, more zonal and progressive pattern, allowing for much more spring-like weather. In fact, its likely to stay quite dry through the end of next week. With a strong Pacific jet, and the Alaskan vortex building into Western North America, a -PNA pattern will likely develop. Even with a very strong blocking regime, the -PNA and the Alaskan vortex will nullify any development of an East Coast trough. This will also allow for warmer conditions, and the potential for the Bermuda High/SE ridge to redevelop across the Southeast, further enforcing the northward placement of a warmer, moist air mass. This, I believe, will allow for the beginning of spring. Have a great day!

GFS Hour 108 forecast for 850 millibar temperatures.