I'm very sorry for the lack of updates once again..
Regardless, I have some very important things to discuss in regards to the forecast. For the rest of weekend, expect numerous lake effect showers, especially tonight into Sunday as low level moisture increases. Temperatures will remain below 25, possibly reaching 28 tomorrow, with only light winds. By Monday, expect a brief warm-up, back into the 40's, with periods of heavy rain possible, but changing back over to snow during the overnight hours. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature highs back into the 20's and lower 30's, with partly cloudy skies. By Thursday, clouds will begin overspreading the region, with the chance of snow coming into the picture as well. This is the part I wanted to discuss.
Models continue to show the potential for a major Midwest storm to develop in the lee of the Rocky Mountains and move east-northeast towards the area. At this time, models continue to indicate a wide "spread" in the intensity of the storm, as well as the eventual track. A few models take the storm farther south, thus allowing for a better potential for a MAJOR snowstorm by Thursday night and Friday across the area. There are also a few models that take the storm farther north, but are weaker, and bring the area a nasty ice storm. Either way, a significant winter storm looks imminent across the area by the end of the week. But at the same time, I'm not very confident on what exactly is going to happen, as a few hundred-mile difference in track and amplitude of the upper level wave could mean the difference between a mix-event of sleet and slush, or a heavy snowstorm with totals over 8 inches. From what I've seen, it looks as if the storm would take a farther south track, especially in light of a developing block across Greenland, which would suppress the storm southward. This would make the event similar to the December 26th storm just about two months ago, except with heavier precipitation, and possibly worse road conditions due to ice and snow. This system will have plenty of precipitation along with it, as well as favorable conditions for heavy snowfall, especially north of Indianapolis. The reason I say Indianapolis is because there is too much uncertainty with this system, and it could still shift either north or south on the models.
As for the latest trends among models, the 12z GFS is indicating a further south and east displacement of the surface low after lee-side cyclogenesis in Eastern Colorado. This would seem to indicate that the storm would take a further southeast track towards the area, which is more favorable for heavy snow. Given expected snow ratios (this area averages near 14:1 snow ratios), and ample amounts of moisture, we may be looking at 3-7 inch snow event, even if the ice storm verifies (3-7 inches of snow at the onset would significant favor an ice storm anyway). If the colder solution verifies, I would expect a significant snowstorm. I will be releasing a map that shows where I think this major winter storm will set up either late today or tomorrow.
Regardless, I have some very important things to discuss in regards to the forecast. For the rest of weekend, expect numerous lake effect showers, especially tonight into Sunday as low level moisture increases. Temperatures will remain below 25, possibly reaching 28 tomorrow, with only light winds. By Monday, expect a brief warm-up, back into the 40's, with periods of heavy rain possible, but changing back over to snow during the overnight hours. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature highs back into the 20's and lower 30's, with partly cloudy skies. By Thursday, clouds will begin overspreading the region, with the chance of snow coming into the picture as well. This is the part I wanted to discuss.
Models continue to show the potential for a major Midwest storm to develop in the lee of the Rocky Mountains and move east-northeast towards the area. At this time, models continue to indicate a wide "spread" in the intensity of the storm, as well as the eventual track. A few models take the storm farther south, thus allowing for a better potential for a MAJOR snowstorm by Thursday night and Friday across the area. There are also a few models that take the storm farther north, but are weaker, and bring the area a nasty ice storm. Either way, a significant winter storm looks imminent across the area by the end of the week. But at the same time, I'm not very confident on what exactly is going to happen, as a few hundred-mile difference in track and amplitude of the upper level wave could mean the difference between a mix-event of sleet and slush, or a heavy snowstorm with totals over 8 inches. From what I've seen, it looks as if the storm would take a farther south track, especially in light of a developing block across Greenland, which would suppress the storm southward. This would make the event similar to the December 26th storm just about two months ago, except with heavier precipitation, and possibly worse road conditions due to ice and snow. This system will have plenty of precipitation along with it, as well as favorable conditions for heavy snowfall, especially north of Indianapolis. The reason I say Indianapolis is because there is too much uncertainty with this system, and it could still shift either north or south on the models.
As for the latest trends among models, the 12z GFS is indicating a further south and east displacement of the surface low after lee-side cyclogenesis in Eastern Colorado. This would seem to indicate that the storm would take a further southeast track towards the area, which is more favorable for heavy snow. Given expected snow ratios (this area averages near 14:1 snow ratios), and ample amounts of moisture, we may be looking at 3-7 inch snow event, even if the ice storm verifies (3-7 inches of snow at the onset would significant favor an ice storm anyway). If the colder solution verifies, I would expect a significant snowstorm. I will be releasing a map that shows where I think this major winter storm will set up either late today or tomorrow.
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