Near Record High Temperatures Possible

It may not seem like it now, with the polar air mass over the area, causing temperatures to drop just slightly below normal into the lower 80's and upper 70's, but by the end of the week, we may be seeing record highs shattered, and maybe even a few all-time record highs shattered. Before I explain Thursday's and Friday's weather, I will explain how the current weather will allow for the warmer weather later in the week. First off, if it wasn't for Tropical Storm Debbie, many areas would have seen thunderstorms during the afternoon yesterday. This is because the tropical storm blocked the main synoptic scale flow from the Gulf of Mexico. If there were no tropical storm in the Gulf, southerly flow into our area would have brought a deep and moist tropical air mass that was highly unstable. This coupled with some upper level forcing would have caused the development of numerous thunderstorms. This is what has been happening ever since March. A large thunderstorm complex or system in the Gulf states blocks the flow of moisture northward into the Midwest, not allowing for storm systems to strengthen. In reality, if this natural flow of air northward would not have been blocked, we could've have had quite a bit more snow this winter. Instead, that is not how it happened. This is one of the first and most prominent signs of the transition to an El Nino phase in the atmosphere. When the El Nino begins to show its ugly face, the southern part of the jet stream becomes more active. This is why many of the systems that hit the area this winter came up from the southwest and south, bringing warmer air northward and rain with it. Any northern stream that hit the region was moisture starved and produced little more than clouds and a few snowflakes. This may have been one of the reasons for the development of the drought across the region. Back to what I was saying before, the thunderstorms, if they would have developed, would have saturated the soil, allowing it to be cooler but more moist. The drier weather is allowing temperatures today and tomorrow to climb into the lower 80's. As the low level southerly flow causes a nose of incredibly warm and dry air to move into the Upper Midwest, upper level heights will build across the region, especially as the upper level low over New England weakens. This will likely happen starting on Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. By Wednesday, strong warm air advection and subsidence will cause clear skies once again, but this time with highs approaching 90. By Thursday, upper level ridging will cause subsidence and a nose of hot, dry to move into the area, allowing temperatures to soar to near record levels. The hot, dry nose of air from the west combined with near desert and drought conditions in our will allow temperatures to rise into the 100's for Thursday, and possibly again for Friday. If we reach 102 or higher for Thursday, we could tie or break the record set in the 1930's. On Friday, though, depending on the timing of a weak front, temperatures will likely only make it into upper 90's. Humidity levels will significantly increase for Friday though, allowing the atmosphere to feel very uncomfortable. Don't get too excited about this frontal boundary though, thunderstorms aren't likely even with the highly unstable atmosphere, because of mid level capping and subsidence across the region. Even after Friday, the frontal boundary will do little more than cool temperatures into the middle 90's. By next week, yet another surge of hot air will occur, allowing temperatures to rise back into the upper 90's and lower 100's. This is still way out, so take this forecast with a grain of salt. With no tropical storm to block flow from the Gulf of Mexico, expect much more humid conditions for next week.