Finally, after about of a month of research since my last winter forecast, I have finally compiled enough information to create another one. Just this last week, Accuweather's Long-range forecasting team came out with their first official forecast for the 2011-2012 winter season. They have provided a forecast for the entire United States calling for another extreme winter season. Despite the threat for an extreme winter season, they believe the East Coast will be spared this year, with only a few minor threats for snowstorms to the East Coast at the end of December, while the threat for ice storms in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will continue into February. They believe that the drought in the Southern United States to continue, spreading out of Texas, and into the Southeast and Florida, while also spreading westward into Arizona, New Mexico, and Southern California. In these regions, the Long-range forecasting team at Accuweather expects dry, and relatively tranquil weather for most of the winter season, with maybe a period of time in December where Southern California gets hit by heavy rain and flooding. For the rest of the south, they expect some relief in the Texas drought, especially along the Gulf Coast, as rain finally returns to Southeast Texas. For the most part the drought will get worse, especially as we get into next spring, when even drier conditions return to Texas. Even along the Pacific Northwest Coast, they expect normal La Nina conditions to settle in with, with much above normal rainfall, below normal temperatures and heavy snowfall in the Cascades and Rockies. But according to the Long-range forecast team, the worst of the winter storms will hit the Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the Great Lakes. They expect much above normal precipitation, along with below normal temperatures. They expect many arctic outbreaks in the middle of the country. Not only will we have plenty of cold to deal with, but plenty of snow as well, with several major blizzards expected to hit the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Upper Midwest. Many cities in these regions may receive record snowfall amounts as huge snowstorms are anticipated to impact many areas. I will explain later in the article, when and potentially where most of these snowstorms will hit. In my opinion, with all of the climatic signs lining up just right, I think that they may be pretty accurate with what occurs this winter.
In this forecast, I do not want to get very technical, so I will get straight to the point in each region. I will make a forecast for each of six regions, with month by month details on my blog. These regions are as follows: Northeast (including the Mid-Atlantic states), the Southern U.S., the Southwest, the West Coast (Pacific Northwest), the Rockies and Upper Midwest, and the Great Lakes/Midwest/Ohio Valley region. I will begin with the Pacific Northwest and West Coast. As is typical with a La Nina winter, I expect quite a bit of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, including Washington state, Oregon, Idaho, and parts of Montana. In actuality, the train of storm systems that normally comes with a La Nina winter has already begun in the Pacific Northwest, as the ridge has finally left the west, allowing for a major trough to bring in multiple rounds of storm systems to the West. In the mountainous regions, I expect a very long and successful skiing season, as snowfall amounts will be extreme in the Cascades, the Sierra Nevadas in California, and for most of the Rockies north of Colorado. With all of this precipitation, comes below normal temperatures to most of Washington state and Oregon, with regions south of these states, having near normal temperatures for most of the winter. In the Southwest deserts, I expect for the most part dry and relatively mild conditions for the winter. This will allow for the drought to re-expand westward from Texas, and raise water concerns for the second winter in a row. Even with overall drier than normal conditions for the season, during December, as mentioned above there could be period where the Pineapple Express re-opens. The Pineapple Express refers to a theoretical atmospheric river of moisture that runs northward every once and a while into the West Coast of the United States. This "atmospheric river" brings very heavy rainfall for days and even weeks on end to Southern California and Arizona. I expect this to open up at least once this winter as it did last winter. In the Southern United States from Texas on over to Georgia and Florida, I expect almost the same thing as I do for the Southwest, with much drier than normal conditions and very mild conditions, especially later in the season towards mid-January through the spring months. Because of La Nina, I would also expect an early and active severe and tornado season throughout February and March, which could impact the same areas that were hit hard last year. Even though the south seems like it could be devoid of winter weather, don't let your guard down, because there could a few storms that will bring some extreme icing situations to areas such as Oklahoma and Arkansas eastward towards Tennessee, northern Alabama and Georgia, and western parts of the Carolinas. These storms could bring major power outages along with hazardous road conditions for days. The most probable time for these to happen will be in December and early January. Also, expect the drought conditions to spread eastward from Texas during the winter months. For the next region, the Northeast, I only have to say, that this winter will probably bring a much needed break from major snowstorms and blizzards. I expect near normal temperatures with above normal precipitation. Though, do not let your guard down, as there may be a significant blizzard and snowstorm that sneaks its way up the East Coast, and bring one of the only major snowfalls of the season to most areas especially south of New York City and Hartford, Connecticut. Areas north of here may experience more snowstorms and a lot more cold air than coastal southern areas. After mid-January, due to the development of a stronger Gulf of Mexico ridge, and due to warm onshore air flow, I expect some warming to occur especially in coastal areas, where by February, most of their precipitation will be heavy rains from storm systems. In the interior northeast, temperatures will likely not warm very much or they may not change at all from the previous cold temperatures as the Appalachian mountains will likely keep the warm Atlantic air mass from moving to much farther westward. Winter over the interior Northeast will likely be severe, as very cold air moves into the region from the Arctic, and as major storm systems move along the Appalachian mountains, creating many situations where heavy snowfall is possible. As for the Northern Plains and Rockies, I expect snowy and the coldest conditions of anywhere in the United States. All winter long, I expect an arctic air mass to remain in place, allowing for temperature departures from normal to be near -5 to -7 degrees below normal. With the jet stream coming out of Canada from the northwest, I also expect a snowier than normal winter with multiple threats of snow from Alberta Clippers which generally bring strong winds, heavy snowfall and bitter cold. There may also be one or two Panhandle hooks, which swing into Texas, and then make a sharp turn toward the north and generally bring blizzards to the Northern Plains. Now, finally, for the worst forecast of them all, the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Midwest regions. In this region, all of the climatic variables seem to be pointing to a very snowy winter, with very cold conditions throughout most of the winter also. The predominant storm track will be through Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia during most of the winter, meaning that most of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will mostly see snow during the winter months. Because these storms will have access to moisture from the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for the formation of very heavy snowfall with several storm systems. This year, we may actually see some classic blizzards over the area that dump over a foot of snow, and not just once but several times, especially in mid January through mid February. There may also be some Alberta Clippers that bring widespread snowfall amounts of 3-6 inches, but most of these will occur in December. With the heavy snowfall we could also see some very cold air arrive and stick for most of the winter. Temperature departures may be as low as six degrees below average for December and January. There is the possibility of a slight warm-up occurring during the month of February, which could lead to the possibility of an ice storm leading to hazardous roads and power outages. Along with the cold arctic air, the Lake-effect snow will be substantial once again, as the Great Lakes water temperatures are much above normal and I expect much of this heat to be retained throughout the winter. This will allow for multiple outbreaks of heavy lake-effect snow, which will cause much above normal snowfall in all lake effect snowbelts right along the Great Lakes. Northwest Ohio may even see some of this snowfall especially during some of the stronger outbreaks in December!
Overall, I see an extreme winter for a large portion of the Northern United States, leading to heavy snowfall and very cold air to much of the region. In many ways I expect this winter to be very similar to last year, expect for the fact that I don't believe the Northeast will have near the amount or strength of winter storms from last year, and I expect the heaviest snowfall to fall in the lower Great Lakes region, a belt from Chicago and Detroit on down to Indianapolis and on over to Cleveland. If I were you, I would prepare now for a very dangerous winter. Even though the forecast could change dramatically over the next month, and we could end up having very little snow. But, right now, this is the most likely to happen, given how the climatic signs and forecasts are lined up.
In this forecast, I do not want to get very technical, so I will get straight to the point in each region. I will make a forecast for each of six regions, with month by month details on my blog. These regions are as follows: Northeast (including the Mid-Atlantic states), the Southern U.S., the Southwest, the West Coast (Pacific Northwest), the Rockies and Upper Midwest, and the Great Lakes/Midwest/Ohio Valley region. I will begin with the Pacific Northwest and West Coast. As is typical with a La Nina winter, I expect quite a bit of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, including Washington state, Oregon, Idaho, and parts of Montana. In actuality, the train of storm systems that normally comes with a La Nina winter has already begun in the Pacific Northwest, as the ridge has finally left the west, allowing for a major trough to bring in multiple rounds of storm systems to the West. In the mountainous regions, I expect a very long and successful skiing season, as snowfall amounts will be extreme in the Cascades, the Sierra Nevadas in California, and for most of the Rockies north of Colorado. With all of this precipitation, comes below normal temperatures to most of Washington state and Oregon, with regions south of these states, having near normal temperatures for most of the winter. In the Southwest deserts, I expect for the most part dry and relatively mild conditions for the winter. This will allow for the drought to re-expand westward from Texas, and raise water concerns for the second winter in a row. Even with overall drier than normal conditions for the season, during December, as mentioned above there could be period where the Pineapple Express re-opens. The Pineapple Express refers to a theoretical atmospheric river of moisture that runs northward every once and a while into the West Coast of the United States. This "atmospheric river" brings very heavy rainfall for days and even weeks on end to Southern California and Arizona. I expect this to open up at least once this winter as it did last winter. In the Southern United States from Texas on over to Georgia and Florida, I expect almost the same thing as I do for the Southwest, with much drier than normal conditions and very mild conditions, especially later in the season towards mid-January through the spring months. Because of La Nina, I would also expect an early and active severe and tornado season throughout February and March, which could impact the same areas that were hit hard last year. Even though the south seems like it could be devoid of winter weather, don't let your guard down, because there could a few storms that will bring some extreme icing situations to areas such as Oklahoma and Arkansas eastward towards Tennessee, northern Alabama and Georgia, and western parts of the Carolinas. These storms could bring major power outages along with hazardous road conditions for days. The most probable time for these to happen will be in December and early January. Also, expect the drought conditions to spread eastward from Texas during the winter months. For the next region, the Northeast, I only have to say, that this winter will probably bring a much needed break from major snowstorms and blizzards. I expect near normal temperatures with above normal precipitation. Though, do not let your guard down, as there may be a significant blizzard and snowstorm that sneaks its way up the East Coast, and bring one of the only major snowfalls of the season to most areas especially south of New York City and Hartford, Connecticut. Areas north of here may experience more snowstorms and a lot more cold air than coastal southern areas. After mid-January, due to the development of a stronger Gulf of Mexico ridge, and due to warm onshore air flow, I expect some warming to occur especially in coastal areas, where by February, most of their precipitation will be heavy rains from storm systems. In the interior northeast, temperatures will likely not warm very much or they may not change at all from the previous cold temperatures as the Appalachian mountains will likely keep the warm Atlantic air mass from moving to much farther westward. Winter over the interior Northeast will likely be severe, as very cold air moves into the region from the Arctic, and as major storm systems move along the Appalachian mountains, creating many situations where heavy snowfall is possible. As for the Northern Plains and Rockies, I expect snowy and the coldest conditions of anywhere in the United States. All winter long, I expect an arctic air mass to remain in place, allowing for temperature departures from normal to be near -5 to -7 degrees below normal. With the jet stream coming out of Canada from the northwest, I also expect a snowier than normal winter with multiple threats of snow from Alberta Clippers which generally bring strong winds, heavy snowfall and bitter cold. There may also be one or two Panhandle hooks, which swing into Texas, and then make a sharp turn toward the north and generally bring blizzards to the Northern Plains. Now, finally, for the worst forecast of them all, the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Midwest regions. In this region, all of the climatic variables seem to be pointing to a very snowy winter, with very cold conditions throughout most of the winter also. The predominant storm track will be through Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia during most of the winter, meaning that most of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will mostly see snow during the winter months. Because these storms will have access to moisture from the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for the formation of very heavy snowfall with several storm systems. This year, we may actually see some classic blizzards over the area that dump over a foot of snow, and not just once but several times, especially in mid January through mid February. There may also be some Alberta Clippers that bring widespread snowfall amounts of 3-6 inches, but most of these will occur in December. With the heavy snowfall we could also see some very cold air arrive and stick for most of the winter. Temperature departures may be as low as six degrees below average for December and January. There is the possibility of a slight warm-up occurring during the month of February, which could lead to the possibility of an ice storm leading to hazardous roads and power outages. Along with the cold arctic air, the Lake-effect snow will be substantial once again, as the Great Lakes water temperatures are much above normal and I expect much of this heat to be retained throughout the winter. This will allow for multiple outbreaks of heavy lake-effect snow, which will cause much above normal snowfall in all lake effect snowbelts right along the Great Lakes. Northwest Ohio may even see some of this snowfall especially during some of the stronger outbreaks in December!
Overall, I see an extreme winter for a large portion of the Northern United States, leading to heavy snowfall and very cold air to much of the region. In many ways I expect this winter to be very similar to last year, expect for the fact that I don't believe the Northeast will have near the amount or strength of winter storms from last year, and I expect the heaviest snowfall to fall in the lower Great Lakes region, a belt from Chicago and Detroit on down to Indianapolis and on over to Cleveland. If I were you, I would prepare now for a very dangerous winter. Even though the forecast could change dramatically over the next month, and we could end up having very little snow. But, right now, this is the most likely to happen, given how the climatic signs and forecasts are lined up.
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