A collection of rants, forecasts, and ideas from a young, amateur meteorologist ready to pursue a career in studying the most intricate and beautiful aspect of the entire created universe.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Warm Temperatures For the Rest of the Week. Heavy rain threat Saturday and Sunday.
As of 11:45 a.m., temperatures are the low 80's in most areas, with some areas still in the upper 70's. Very sunny conditions have allowed for more insolation and high warming rates this morning. Temperatures will continue to rise to around 86 or 87, with some isolated areas, especially ones with drier soil conditions such as Fort Wayne, will see temperatures to around 90 by 4 p.m. This afternoon and evening, increasing cumulus clouds along with a very weak cold front could allow for the development of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, especially overnight. After the weak cold front moves through, temperatures could rise to around 86 degrees by late afternoon tomorrow, but with a slightly drier air mass. By Saturday, a strong upper level shortwave will move toward the lower Great Lakes, and along with increasing moisture values and high Upward Vertical Velocities in the 700 millibar level, will lead to the development of heavy rain and thunderstorms. According to the Climate Prediction Center, the heaviest rainfall will fall to the southwest of Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana. Also, according to forecast models (NAM and GFS/Avn), the majority of storms will be to the southwest of our area. So unless the forecast changes, expect some rain and thunderstorms and be prepared for heavy rain, but odds are that most of the rain will hit areas south of us. On Sunday, showery conditions could continue unless the cold front comes through early. This cold front will cause temperatures to plummet next week into the upper 70's and lower 80's.
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