Here's the RAP analysis sounding at 11z this
morning (6 a.m.). It's indicating a warm layer aloft, which could impact
the light winter weather event that is expected to reach the region
later this afternoon and evening... Let's look into detail at this sounding.
First of all, we notice that the warm layer is not sufficiently large, and temperatures in the layer are near freezing. In this case, the layer would not be sufficient enough for precipitation to completely melt. Therefore, this would likely be a sleet/snow sounding.
Even though there is a warm layer, there are several things I would like to point out. One, is that intense evaporational cooling will cool the entire column (and subsequent warm layer) below freezing, and allowing precipitation type to remain as snow. Not only evaporational cooling, but dynamic cooling, forced by the anticyclonically curved jet streak located over Michigan, will keep thermal profiles in check. The reason why I am pointing this out is because I'm expecting warmer air to continue moving above the low level cold air mass throughout the day. At the same time, I expect that dynamic and evaporational cooling will keep any warm layers from being above freezing. When the atmosphere becomes saturated later this afternoon, the warmer layer aloft might reach temperatures above freezing, and may bear watching.
If these warmer layers should warm above freezing, while surface temperatures remain at or below freezing, some areas may see a period of moderate sleet or possibly freezing rain later this afternoon, mainly southwest of Fort Wayne. North of Fort Wayne, expect light snow, and nothing more than an inch of snow. South of Fort Wayne, 1-2 inches is possible. I would keep an eye on this though.. Because if precipitation banding is stronger than currently expected, many areas could be looking at higher snowfall totals.
First of all, we notice that the warm layer is not sufficiently large, and temperatures in the layer are near freezing. In this case, the layer would not be sufficient enough for precipitation to completely melt. Therefore, this would likely be a sleet/snow sounding.
Even though there is a warm layer, there are several things I would like to point out. One, is that intense evaporational cooling will cool the entire column (and subsequent warm layer) below freezing, and allowing precipitation type to remain as snow. Not only evaporational cooling, but dynamic cooling, forced by the anticyclonically curved jet streak located over Michigan, will keep thermal profiles in check. The reason why I am pointing this out is because I'm expecting warmer air to continue moving above the low level cold air mass throughout the day. At the same time, I expect that dynamic and evaporational cooling will keep any warm layers from being above freezing. When the atmosphere becomes saturated later this afternoon, the warmer layer aloft might reach temperatures above freezing, and may bear watching.
If these warmer layers should warm above freezing, while surface temperatures remain at or below freezing, some areas may see a period of moderate sleet or possibly freezing rain later this afternoon, mainly southwest of Fort Wayne. North of Fort Wayne, expect light snow, and nothing more than an inch of snow. South of Fort Wayne, 1-2 inches is possible. I would keep an eye on this though.. Because if precipitation banding is stronger than currently expected, many areas could be looking at higher snowfall totals.
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