Forecasted Snowfall Amounts

Antwerp is in the 1-3 inch zone. This includes lake enhancement during the storm, but not lake effect snow AFTER the storm.

This is my snowfall map for Thursday's night storm. At the current time, based on the latest model data, I can see that a feature called a "deformation zone" will develop across the area as the main storm system strengthens rapidly. Due to the quick movement of the cold front, any precipitation that falls within this band will be all snow, based on the latest sounding diagrams. Right now, snow ratios look to be around 10:1 to 13:1. What this means is that 10 (or 13 inches of snow) will melt to 1 inch of liquid water. Multiplying by liquid water equivalent will get you snowfall. Since about 0.1 to about 0.5 inches of frozen precipitation will fall (due to partially wet snowflakes), it's likely that most of the area sees about 1 inch, to possibly five inches in NW Indiana and Southern Michigan. In the Fort Wayne region, if current NAM forecasts hold, a solid 1-3 inches of snow could fall Thursday night into Friday morning.

Right now, here is a quick timeline of the storm. Wednesday afternoon, thick cloud cover from the oncoming developing storm system will spread into the region. By late Wednesday night, probably around midnight, we will likely see bands of light rain move into the region. By early Thursday morning, rain will become steadier and heavier, before becoming lighter for a time Thursday late morning. By Thursday midday, a line of convective showers and POSSIBLY a thunderstorm could bring some heavier rainfall amounts. By the early and mid afternoon, a dry "slot" will move through the region as the cold front "blasts" through the region. During this time, temperatures will fall quite quickly into the middle and upper 30's. As the low begins to stall over southern Michigan (model consensus of the storm), the deformation zone, an elongated band of heavier precipitation, will try to swing into Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio. While the details aren't clear yet, the placement of this deformation zone will determine how much snow we actually will get. If the current trend of the storm going further south continues, I wouldn't doubt that snowfall amounts would be in the range of 2-4 inches across the area (especially if lake enhancement comes into play). If the deformation zone is farther north, then expect near or less than an inch of snow across the area.

After this storm moves through, a cold and stagnant air mass will dominate the weather conditions up until Christmas. A weak wave of colder air before Christmas could cause another shot at snow and/or lake effect snow Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Either way, depending on snowfall Thursday night, and the next system, our area has a decent chance at seeing a white christmas. If we see a white christmas, it'll be the first in several years! After Christmas, both the GFS and ECMWF are continually hinting at a major storm system "bombing" out in the Southern Plains and heading northeastward. The ECMWF indicates that this would initially begin as a sleet/ice mix, before transitioning to all rain, and then to potentially heavy snow, and high winds. The GFS on the otherhand, has a much longer period of sleet and snow ahead of the storm, with only a brief transition to liquid precipitation, before a transition to heavy snowfall. Either way, a major Arctic wave is POSSIBLE just before New Year's Day. Keep watching for my posts for additional information on this post-Christmas storm. (Note: Some forecasters have said that this storm may end up as an East Coast storm system, and I do agree with them. It is possible that this ends up as an East Coast storm, which would leave the area high and dry, but with very cold weather, and heavy lake effect snow. I will continue to monitor the storm for additional information.).