Forecast through Friday, October 7, 2011.

This morning, as most of you are well aware, temperatures did not get as cold as was predicted.  In fact, around the Fort Wayne area, temperatures only dropped to near 37 in most areas.  Some areas farther west of Fort Wayne, such as central Indiana, dropped to near freezing for lows.  In seems as if the upper level low over the East Coast, was closer to the area than was originally expected.  This caused higher dew points in the area, and this caused much warmer low temperatures than was originally expected.  With this in mind, since the upper level low was closer than expected, and according to satellite imagery, this upper level low looks like it may be building westward very slowly.  By tomorrow, this retrograding (moving westward) motion should stop and the upper level low should begin to move eastward off the east coast, but it will continue to affect the weather over most of the East for the next several days.  Tonight, as this low continues to build westward, I expect an increase in cloud cover.  This increase in high and mid level clouds, plus the fact that dew points will be increasing will lead to morning lows tomorrow only in the low 40's, with some areas, especially west of Fort Wayne, seeing temperatures into the upper 30's.  This will GREATLY limit the potential for frost tonight, so expect patchy if any frost.  By tomorrow, partly cloudy conditions will prevail, as high and mid level clouds move into the area.  These high and mid level clouds should not limit high temperatures very much, mainly due to 500 millibar height rises over the area.  This indicates that a ridge is beginning to build into the region, allowing much warmer temperatures than in the past few days.  Therefore, I predict that tomorrow's high temperatures will range in the mid-upper 60's in most areas.  For Monday night and Tuesday, I expect the upper level low over the east coast, to begin shifting eastward, mainly because of Hurricane Ophelia.  Soon, by Wednesday, because the upper level low will be off the east coast, I expect little if any cloud cover, due to the fact that the rather large upper level ridge will move into our area.  This should cause a significant warming trend to temperatures into the mid seventies and possibly upper 70's.  By the beginning of next week, the pattern will begin to change again with a trough entering the Central Plains.  This trough could begin to initiate storm systems, but I won't say this because models are not in very good agreement about what will happen with this trough.

Forecast through Friday, October 7, 2011

Sunday Night: Low 41. Mostly clear, becoming partly cloudy later with high and mid level clouds. Winds light and from the North-Northeast. 
Monday: High 68.  Partly Cloudy. Winds light and variable. Surface high pressure system on top of our area.
Tuesday: High 71. Partly cloudy for the most of the day, thicker and higher clouds moving in from the upper level low over the east coast.  Winds from the west at 10 mph. Very comfortable, warm day to be outside.
Tuesday Night: Low 52.  Partly cloudy in the evening, with clouds clearing up as upper level low moves off the east coast. 
Wednesday: High 74. Mostly sunny, with a few clouds from time to time. Upper level ridge beginning to move over the area, allowing much warmer temperatures. 
Wednesday Night: Low 53. Mostly clear, with surface high pressure causing warm southerly winds.  Upper level ridge continues to move eastward, causing warmer temperatures to move in.

Thursday: High 75. Mostly sunny, a ridge over the area keeps our temperatures above normal and skies clear.  Light winds from from the south-southeast. 

Thursday Night: Low 52.  Mostly clear.  Light southerly winds.  Ridge is still over the area keeping warm temperatures in place.

Friday: High 77. Mostly sunny, again, with warm southerly winds in place under highly amplified ridge.