Lake effect snowfall forecast.

After a cold front moved through Sunday morning, temperatures rapidly dropped from the mid 40's to the upper 20's by nightfall.  This caused many road and concrete surfaces to freeze over last night, allowing for accumulating snowfall.  I know snowfall has been highly variable throughout the night, with some areas in Northwest Ohio picking up over an inch of snowfall.  Instead of a few main bands of lake effect snow, there has been many bands of moderate to heavy snow, with some of them reaching as far south as Lima, OH.  This is because there is still strong directional shear, which will tear apart large bands of extremely heavy lake effect snow and break them into many bands of moderate or heavy snow.  Some of the main ingredients for extremely heavy lake effect snow have been in place for this event.  One of these ingredients is an extreme lapse rate, from the surface lake waters to the 700 millibar layer of more than 30 degrees Celsius.  This means that surface temperatures over the lake could be near 40 degrees, while temperatures at the 700 millibar layer are below zero.  This creates an extreme lapse rate and absolute instability, allowing for free convection to take place, even without a lifting mechanism.  There is also enough synoptic moisture to allow for heavy snow to form, once the instability causes air to rise and cool and condense to form snow squalls.  Another ingredient that is present, is high inversion heights.  Normally, in an arctic air mass such as this one, an inversion will usually exist about a 1000 feet above the surface.  With this situation, the instability has caused inversion heights to be raised to about the 400 millibar layer, which is over 20,000 feet in the atmosphere.  This allows for deep bands of heavy snow to develop.  The last major factor in the development of extreme lake effect snow is strong wind speed shear between different levels in the atmosphere.  If strong upper level winds line up with much weaker surface winds, long bands of snow will stream off the Great Lakes.  If the atmosphere exhibits strong veering or backing of winds with height, these bands of heavy snow will be sheared apart, causing a more widespread snow event, but with less snowfall totals.  This is what happened last night, but it is forecasted that later today, several heavy bands of lake effect bands will develop, stretching as far south and east as Northwest Ohio.  One feature that will enhance the lake effect is an upper level shortwave that will begin moving over the area by early afternoon.  This will cause numerous moderate to heavy snow showers away from the lakes.  According to the latest hi-res guidance, snowfall amounts will largely remain in the range of 1-3 inches in most of Northwest Ohio, with heavier snowfall amounts west of the state line.  Snowfall amounts will likely be as high as 15 inches near South Bend to Benton Harbor, Michigan.  Even though ingredients are near perfect for an extreme lake effect event around here, the best conditions will reside near Lake Ontario, where over three feet of snow could fall.  By tomorrow, snow will end over most areas except near the lakes, with very cold conditions still in place, with highs barely reaching the twenties.  After that a major warming trend will commence, bringing our area out of the deep freeze, and temperatures well above normal by the end of the week.

Medium range update

Today, I just want to have a quick update with the weather.  Today through Tomorrow, I'm expecting scattered rain or snow showers.  Today's highs will be in the lower 40's.  It's really uncertain what will happen tomorrow, as the GEM and GFS are both predicting snow, with some rain mixing in.  Current indications are that models may be too cold with this system, which would mean an all rain event for the area tomorrow.  Precipitation amounts will be in the range of 0.25 to 0.6 inches tomorrow, along with some gusty winds.  By this weekend, Saturday and Sunday, a major storm system will form in Canada, bringing very strong winds to the area.  The one thing about this system that's different from many other storm systems over the last several months is that it will not bring much precipitation to the area, if the GFS forecast were to hold to true.  Instead of just a slight cool down after the storm moves through, a rather robust and strong arctic front will sweep southward out of Canada, dropping temperatures from the lower 40's early Sunday morning, to the lower and mid 20's by nightfall, along with some snow.  Temperatures will continue dropping throughout the night, possibly into the mid or upper teens, causing dangerous wind chills.  After the arctic front moves through, temperatures will remain very cold for several days before moderation begins once again.  By Monday, a major lake effect is expected to be underway, the first lake effect event of the season.  This could bring several snow bands as far south as Northwest Ohio and Indiana, possibly causing some travel disruptions.  This arctic front may be a sign of things to come, as long-range guidance indicates that by mid-January, a major and possibly record-breaking arctic outbreak may invade the United States, bringing temperatures that will be well below normal.  This arctic outbreak in mid January may be the pattern change that we have been waiting for.  Some models are even indicating that this arctic outbreak next week will be the pattern breaker.

Updated Snowfall Forecast

In many areas now, it is snowing and snowing heavily, especially closer to the Indiana/Ohio line.  As 850 millibar temperatures become colder, especially east of Fort Wayne, the snow flakes will become smaller, intensifying snowfall rates for a very short period of time.  The frontogenetical forcing has weakened, causing the main band of heavy snow to shift closer to Northwest Ohio and eastern Indiana.  With the latest radar trends, I expect the snowfall to end from west to east by 4 in Fort Wayne, 5 or 6 in Antwerp, and in Defiance in the early evening hours.  Even these estimates may be too slow as the main axis of heavy snowfall has significantly weakened and the whole band of snow is deteriorating.  Snowfall totals from Fort Wayne have been near 3 inches, while in Antwerp about 2-3 inches and east of Antwerp, one to two inches.  This snow will continue through late afternoon, accumulating 2-4 inches over most areas, with some heavier snowfall amounts especially north and east of Fort Wayne.  I expect some lingering back-end snow showers and some lake effect snow showers.  Accumulations tonight will be near a half inch to an inch.  Lows tonight will be very cold compared to the last several nights as they will fall into the lower 20's, causing significant icing.  Temperatures will be on the upward trend the rest of the week, excluding Wednesday when temperatures will barely make it into the lower 30's.  By Thursday, another clipper system will be side-swiping the area, with rain and snow showers.  By early next week, the next major storm system will be affecting the area, with above normal temperatures, rain, wind, and possibly snow.  Stay tuned for further updates.

Snowfall Update

Looking at the latest short range models, snowfall will likely continue later than what I was thinking on Sunday.  These models are showing that snow will not end over most of the area until late this afternoon mainly east of Fort Wayne.  This is good news for snow lovers, because a longer snowfall event could cause heavier snowfall accumulations.  My forecast of 2-4 inches will still hold for most of the area, with these amounts mainly in Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio.  Another thing that has shown up as a possibility that short-range models are not picking up on is mesoscale banding of the snow.  When this happens, heavier snowfall rates will fall causing heavier snowfall totals.  The National Weather Service is concerned that as the main band of snowfall (currently west of here) shifts eastward, strong upper level dynamic forcing combined with frontogenetical lifting along the surface cold front will cause temperatures to fall into the lower 30's for most of the day allowing for snow to stick easily on roads and grassy surfaces.  This intense lifting will cause a very heavy band of snow to form over parts of the area.  Right now the National Weather Service is saying that the threat area stretches from Huntington through Fort Wayne and right along U.S. 24 through Antwerp and right up to Toledo.  If this heavy band of snow would set up, many areas could see up to 4-6 inches of snow.  This seems a little high but it is a possibility.  This band will likely set up around 1 or 2 p.m. and continue for a couple of hours before tapering off in the early evening east of the Indiana/Ohio line.  Tonight, with fresh snowfall, temperatures will fall into the lower 20's and possibly upper teens.  By tomorrow, a fresh polar air mass will be in place across the area, which will cause temperatures to barely make it into the the 30's, with some areas in the upper 20's.  Later this week, another warm up into the 40's will occur, after a clipper brings some light snow to the area.  By New Year's Day, a major trough will set up in the Central Plains, causing a major storm system to form by Sunday and Monday.  At this time, this will likely impact the area with heavy rainfall, but with rapidly falling temperatures with the passage of the storm.  I will keep you updated on this storm threat next week.

Merry Christmas! One last Forecast Update

Merry Christmas to everybody who reads this blog, thank you for coming to listen and read my forecasts everyday.  I hope everyone has a great Christmas even without the snow on the ground.  As for last minute updates to next week's winter storm potential, it looks like the heaviest snow totals will be along and south of U.S. 24.  At this time I would expect at least 2-4 inches of snow, and possibly a lot heavier amounts if the upper level moisture tongue can reach into our area, enhancing the heavy snowfall.  Some of the latest models have trended the storm southward, but this may not end up happening as the NAO is still positive and the AO is negative, causing the southeast ridge to push westward.  At this time, precipitation will start out as mixed Monday night, then quickly change over to all snow after 2 a.m. and snow will persist throughout most of the day Tuesday before tapering off late Tuesday afternoon and evening.  As I said before, snowfall totals will primarily be dependent on how cold it is and the track of the storm.  The snow will begin at an ideal time for snow accumulations, at night, so it will accumulate faster.  Second of all, temperatures Monday night, will be in the mid to upper 20's, allowing for freezing rain, sleet, and snow to mix in and then changing to all snow.  The trickiest part of the forecast will be the track of the storm.  If the track of the storm is further south, I expect snowfall totals to be light, and accumulate to about an inch, or we may end up getting nothing.  If the storm track is farther north, then I expect heavier precipitation totals, along with heavier snowfall accumulations possibly in the range of 4-7 inches or more (this last point depends on if the storm phases with the jet stream faster, and becomes stronger, because if this happens, the storm will track farther northward.)  This will be my last update until probably tomorrow afternoon, just before the storm hits.  Have a safe and Merry Christmas, praising the Lord and his birth!

Winter Storm Possibilities

Great news for snow lovers.  The latest GFS and NAM have been showing a major snowstorm over most of our area with heaviest snow totals remaining along and north of U.S. Highway 30.  The catch is that temperatures will be only marginal as of right now for heavy snowfall accumulations.  Models such as the NAM are forecasting temperatures around here to be in the mid 30's, while some models such as the ECMWF are forecasting much colder temperatures during the snowstorm (if there is a storm).  Prospects for a snowstorm have only shown up in many model runs just recently and have been rather consistent with the NAM and GFS models.  Right now, both the GFS and NAM are the farthest north of the computer models, causing them to bring in more of a mix of ice and snow before changing to all snow.  If temperatures are as warm as what the NAM and GFS are saying, then expect a wet heavy snow to fall from the sky.  At the other end of the spectrum, the ECMWF has an all snow event with much colder temperatures allowing for a fluffier snow.  Since all three of these are very similar with this storm, a consensus of the models would bring this area a mostly snow event next week, with some sleet or freezing rain/rain mixed in.  While the exact timing of the storm is still in question, my current thinking is that snow will begin Monday night, then continuing through Tuesday night, with some sleet and rain or freezing rain mixed in throughout the day, with lows Monday night in the upper 20's and lower 30's, and highs on Tuesday in the lower to mid 30's, and falling throughout the day.  The GFS is not really consistent with its snowfall totals between its runs, but the latest run is showing rather exciting snowfall amounts (or what I would consider exciting) with most areas seeing 2-4 inches of snow, and some areas possibly more.  As for the NAM, well it doesn't go out that far to be predicting snowfall totals for this event, but it is predicting snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches Monday night, with more on the way for Tuesday.  This could be a pretty significant event so stay tuned for further updates.
As for the Christmas Day forecast, well, expect highs in the mid to upper 30's (pretty warm for this time of year) under partly sunny skies as well.  Won't be the best christmas because of the no snow cover, but it will still be fun.  Have a Merry Christmas everyone!

This map of the ECMWF 00z run is showing a snow event for the area.  Green colors indicate high relative humidity in the upper atmosphere, showing us where precipitation is likely to fall and the map with the low pressure centers on it shows us the position of storm systems and the position of the rain/snow line.  That rain/snow is the 540 line on the map, and on this forecast, the rain/snow line is well south of the area, indicating that most of the area will see snow.

Forecast Update through Tomorrow

A couple of things I forgot to mention I will talk about in this post.  One thing is that a large portion of the atmosphere will be saturated tonight and tomorrow over most of the area.  This is because of continuing showers and drizzle throughout the night.  This will cause nearly widespread fog to form tomorrow morning, becoming dense in certain areas, especially in the open areas.  Dense fog will likely continue through the mid morning and late morning hours.  Another thing, in an earlier post, I stated that rain showers could end as a period of snow Thursday night.  This is looking less and less likely.  Right now, it looks like just a few flurries Thursday night, with LES (Lake Effect Snow) possible on Friday and Saturday.  This is the last update until tomorrow morning.  Have a good night.

White Christmas Forecast, and Continued Long-Range Update.

Unfortunately, I have bad news once again.  Chances are becoming slimmer for a white christmas.  I am very sorry to say this, as we close out December, most if not all meteorologists long-range forecasts were wrong for the month of December.  Currently, most of the United States will close the month out well above normal.  Initial forecasts way back in October were saying that because it would so cold in the Midwest this December, they were expecting below normal precipitation, but above normal snowfall.  As you can see, we had just the opposite.  Instead of cold temperatures and well below normal precipitation, like last December, temperatures will close out December three to five degrees above average for the month.  This overall warmth, has lead to a very low snowpack across the country.  In fact, it may be the lowest snowpack the United States has seen in December since 2006, with only 25.6% of the country covered with measurable snow.  Another opposite that was seen in December, was above normal precipitation.  So far this December, we have seen nearly 3 inches of precipitation, not near as much as November, but still far above normal.  Currently, we are about 1.5 inches above normal for December.  The above normal precipitation throughout the year, has lead to some pretty impressive anomalies (departure from normal).  Right now, 2011 is the third wettest year on record at Fort Wayne, with nearly fifty inches of rain (or snow) fallen.  For comparison, this is the normal amount that places such as Central Florida receive in one year, and we have had more rain than many places in Florida this year.  The exact total for this year is 48.73 inches, which is well above what last year's precipitation total was, which was 32.46 inches.  If long-range models and forecasts are correct, I expect well above normal precipitation to continue through at least the first seven months of next year also.
Now for the white christmas forecast, as the current storm system moves out, not much of a cool down will take place, with another storm system tomorrow, causing temperatures to remain in the upper 30's and lower 40's.  Actually, temperatures on Thursday will remain steady throughout the day, then dropping in the afternoon, into the lower 30's by nightfall.  With the next storm system, we could end with a period of snow Thursday night, as temperatures will be in the upper 20's, and the 540 line (5400 meter thickness between the 1000 millibar layer and the 500 millibar layer, usually indicating the rain/snow line) will be well south of the area, leading to a period of accumulating snow, especially east of Fort Wayne.  On Friday, temperatures will drop into the mid 30's under mostly to partly cloudy skies, as the next storm system from the Gulf of Mexico moves northeast into the East.  The problem is that, this storm was originally forecast to bring us some light snow on Saturday, which does not look likely anymore, as the storm will be too far to the east.  Temperatures also do not look as cold as it originally did.  By Christmas Day, a few snow showers will be scattered throughout the area bringing surprise white Christmas's to a few areas.  Highs that day will be in the lower 30's and possibly colder, even though the National Weather Service is forecasting temperatures in the mid to upper 30's, I do think that this arctic air mass will be cold, and even cold enough to produce lake-effect snow.  By next week, yet another warming trend, but not as much as the last warming trend (into the lower 40's and upper 30's), with some periodic arctic air masses moving into the area through New Year's Day.  By New Year's Day, a new set of storm systems will be affecting starting once again the pattern of heavy precipitation, and once again this is where the long-range gets tricky.
   Yesterday, I mentioned some of the tid bits in the long range.  I did never get to mention the ENSO, so here goes.  According to the latest climate forecast models, the La Nina will continue to strengthen, possibly becoming a strong La Nina around -1.7.  According to the CFS, CFSv2, and the GFDL, they expect the La Nina to peak in strength around March, even though their respective forecasts vary in intensity.  The CFS is forecasting a peak around -1.9, the CFSv2 around -1.4, and the GFDL around -1.8.  If you average these values, you get -1.7.  As for precipitation and temperature extremes, the models are all varying from each other, so it probably isn't that wise to treat these forecasts as truth.  The CFS is forecasting a rather warm January, for the area, while in February and March, temperatures drop well below normal, leading to a very snowy end to winter.  The CFSv2, is forecasting above normal temperatures through June, with only slightly below normal temperatures for February.  As for precipitation, almost all of the models agree that precipitation will be well above normal for the next five months, leading to continued flooding problems, and possibly severe weather problems in April and May.  With the strengthening of the La Nina, I expect that this forecast will hold true.  But as for the next month, I have looked at the teleconnections and this is my good news (for snow lovers that is).  The NAO is expected to gradually drop into negative territory, allowing all that extensive cold in Canada to drop southward finally.  At the same time, even though there is less agreement among models on what the AO will do, there is a general downward trend in its values also, becoming negative by about January 1st, and continuing its downward turn.  The PNA, at the same time, will become positive, which is conducive to a west coast ridge, and east coast trough.  All of these factors, if these forecasts are correct, will converge right around January 1st, possibly making January a very cold and snowy month around here.  All of these factors, combined with the La Nina, will cause a very interesting middle and end to winter.  Not only will these factors converge, but also, solar output will also be taking a dip, leading to colder temperatures and therefore snowier days, instead of rain.  All of this could have serious consequences in the spring, because I am expecting major flooding this spring, even more so than last year.  This is my update, for more updates, tomorrow I will try to have an update.

Long Range Update and White Christmas possibility.

This morning, many of you probably woke up surprised to see it snowing.  Last night, I said that thermal profiles could be marginal for a sleet/snow/freezing rain event.  Well, I was right, sort of.  It turns out, thermal profiles were cool enough to support all snow in quite a few areas south of U.S. 6.  In Antwerp, the precipitation was all snow until it changed to rain around the noon hours, accumulating over an inch.  As you can see, this snow did not stick very well, as most of it has melted in this afternoon's light rain/drizzle, even with temperatures near 34.  As for the forecast through Thursday, expect rain showers becoming more numerous tonight, as a low pressure system heads towards the area.  Rain and cloudy conditions will continue tomorrow, but with much warmer temperatures, nearing the upper 40's.  As is not surprising, this high will be well above normal, nearly 13 degrees above normal for this time of year.  Right now, I am really sick and tired of this rain and warmth.  I just want it to be cold and snowy like it was last year.  More than likely this won't happen until after this storm passes through.  Even with the passage of the cold front (or whatever's left of it), temperatures will drop but not as much as with a normal cold front.  I would expect by Thursday, temperatures will be rather mild, in the mid 40's but dropping quite rapidly throughout the night, into the mid or upper 20's.  Temperatures in the Friday and Saturday time period will be much closer to normal, around the mid 30's.  During this same time frame, we will have our last chance at a white christmas before the day itself.  At this time it will all depend on the track of a storm system from the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently indicated to track northeast along the East Coast by the ECMWF.  If the ECMWF comes to light, I would expect us to get the tail end of a huge snowstorm, with moderate snow possible.  If this were true, snowfall amounts will be in the range of 2-4 inches on Christmas Eve or Christmas Eve night.  After that, very cold air will enter the region and cause daytime highs on Christmas and Monday to be in the mid and upper 20's.  If the GFS's forecast would verify, snow will fall around here, but not nearly as much as what the ECMWF and DGEX are forecasting.  The GFS has a very progressive forecast, meaning that it is keeping snowfall to a minimum, because it moves storms very quickly across the United States.  I'm actually starting to side with the GFS forecast, mainly because of the teleconnections.  The NAO is in a positive regime and so is the AO, supporting the pattern of a warmer, more progressive weather pattern than what the ECMWF is indicating.  Either way its still going to get cold around here by Christmas, with details on how long it will last are not clear at this time.  According to the latest North Atlantic Oscillation ensemble forecasts, the NAO will be on a down turn, indicating that the long expected winter pattern will finally arrive by January.  It is really unclear at this time how and when that this pattern change will take place, but if the stratosphere will end up warming in the next couple of weeks, then this pattern change will likely take place by the very beginning of December.  Right now it looks like it might take a while, but I really do think the pattern change will come, leading to a very snowy and possibly cold January and February.  As for the La Nina influence, I have do have good news (for snow lovers that is!).  According to the monthly SOI values (Southern Oscilliation Index, a positive phase indicates a La Nina, negative phase indicates an El Nino), the La Nina has been steadily strengthening over the last several months, leading me to believe that even wetter conditions will become more prevalent in January and February, along with colder temperatures.  This is really good news.  But if the teleconnections do not support this, its going to take a lot before a major storm hits around here, so hopefully they cooperate. As for the rest of this winter into spring 2012, the latest CFSv2 model runs are showing very wet conditions throughout the entire Ohio Valley and Great Lakes through at least June.  This correlates rather well with the strengthening of the La Nina and the teleconnections.  The CFSv2 is also forecasting a near normal January (some of the ensembles are forecasting warmer than normal temperatures, but I think that if the teleconnections line up right, temperatures will actually be opposite of this.) So it could either way.  For February, it is forecasting below normal temperatures along with above normal temperatures causing above normal snowfall.  Stay tuned for further updates.

Another Forecast Update

Models last week at this time were showing a snowstorm over the area right about now.  Models four days were showing a mostly snow event with some rain and sleet.  Once again, models one or two days ago were showing a mix event.  Models yesterday were showing an all rain event for the area.  Today, models are showing a mix event for the area tonight through Tuesday night.  My take on this storm is that a cold front will move through tonight, causing temperatures to drop.  This will allow for a mix event by the very early morning hours of Tuesday morning, with sleet, freezing rain, and snow all possible.  As temperatures warm throughout the day, the wintry mix should give way to rain showers, and possibly heavier rain if the storm decides to take a farther northward track (which is not likely at this time.).  Therefore, I have lowered rainfall amounts from a half inch to an inch, to about a quarter of an inch for Tuesday, with some areas especially southeast of U.S. 24, picking up at the most a half inch.  Right now, with way the models are going, these rainfall amounts may still be a little high, but you never know.  By Tuesday night and Wednesday, temperatures will have warmed up enough to allow for all rain and more rain will move into the area.  By Wednesday, temperatures will likely rise into the mid and upper 40's, with some higher temperatures possible.  Wednesday will feature showers on the back side of the low, and maybe a switchover to snow if temperatures are cold enough.  For the rest of the week, periodic snow and/or rain showers will occur on a couple of other days.  This is where the forecast gets tricky once again.  Several computer models are once again trending toward a possible snowstorm over our area on Christmas Eve.  Some of these computer models are the ECMWF and the DGEX models.  The GFS is showing a storm moving quickly off shore of the East Coast, bringing in a very cold air mass for a large portion of the United States.  At this time, it is possible that see we a snow event on Christmas Eve, all depending on the timing of a storm moving from the Gulf of Mexico northward.  Right now, several models have been showing an east coast storm, but if the general trend of a westward and northward shift happens, then I would expect a major snowstorm over the area.  If this doesn't happen, expect a few lake-effect snow showers and temperatures falling into the lower 30's and upper 20's, which could bring a few areas a dusting of snow.  All of these are possibilities.  Stay tuned for further updates.

Bad News Once again.

According to the models I have seen this morning, it looks like we will probably see little or no snow during next week's storm.  In fact, precipitation amounts do not look that high at this time, as the heaviest precipitation will be situated to our south.  Tuesday will probably end up being our best shot for rain, with widespread rain moving into the area.  The heaviest rainfall amounts with this storm will be along and southeast of U.S. 24, with rainfall of 0.5 to an inch of rain.  This system does not look to be that big around here, so don't expect anything major.  But unlike the last storm, our temperatures during this storm will about 20 degrees cooler, allowing for the possibility of a mix of ice, snow, and rain at times Tuesday afternoon and evening.  We were originally expected a possible snowstorm next week, but now this does not seem near as likely.  One reason is because of the heavier precipitation shifting south of our area.  Second, there will not be enough cold air involved with this system.  This will keep much if any snow from forming.  Third, the storm system will be weakening as it heads northeastward, which will not allow a band of heavier precipitation (or snow) to form.  All of these factors, have made this storm not a snowstorm, but just a mediocre, rain and mix event.  After this storm, a major cold blast does not appear likely.  Right now, it looks like the cold air will gradually ease into the area, with cooler temperatures each day.  By Christmas Day, we may be seeing some snow showers and temperatures in the lower 30's and upper 20's.

White Christmas, a 50/50 chance.

As most of you remember, last December was one of our coldest on record, with temperatures below freezing for almost 90% of the month.  Temperatures last December hit rock bottom with several subzero nights and days that did not make it above 20 degrees.  We also had quite a bit of snow last December (even though we could have had more).  Even with a warm and rainy ending last year, temperatures still averaged nearly 6 degrees below normal for the entire month.  This year, we can't even to seem to get a nighttime low below freezing rather than a daytime high.  So far this December, temperatures have averaged 1.5 degrees above normal (it would be much higher if it weren't for those rare cold days.).  Another thing different from last December was snowfall and snow cover.  This year, only about 10-20% of the United States is covered by snow, while a year ago, nearly 60% of the United States.  This really does show how warm it has been since November.  There are two bad things that have been happening because of this warmth.  One, well above normal precipitation, creating major river flooding all over Northern Indiana and Ohio.  Two, this warm air has locked all of the cold air in Canada, and it has been building for several months.  If any kind of slight stratospheric warming occurs in the next several weeks, then expect all of this cold air to rush southward, enhancing the stratospheric warming process.  When this happens, that's when I expect the worst of winter to arrive.
    As for my white Christmas forecast, I expect that we do have a better chance than I thought a week ago.  The Monday/Wednesday storm of next week has shifted southward on most if not all computer models.  Current indications show a mix event with some periods of rain, changing over to all snow for a good chunk of Tuesday night.  This could mean several inches of snow depending on the track of the system.  If the storm tracks farther northward, and pulls in the cold air faster, expect heavier precipitation with higher snowfall totals.  If it tracks northward without pulling the cold air in faster, I would expect very heavy rainfall amounts, with widespread flooding possible by Wednesday.  If the storm decides to head south, expect a brief changeover to snow, with not as much precipitation as a result.  Current indications are that the ridge will once again become moderate in strength next week, allowing the storm to take a farther northward track (through southern Indiana and Ohio), but at the same time a major trough develops in the Midwest, helping to bring more cold air into the back side of the storm than during the last several storms.  This would be the scenario to bring a mix event with heavy rain, then rapidly falling temperatures causing a changeover to snow.  These all look to be a possibility by Tuesday.  If we end up not getting any snowfall Tuesday night, we have yet another chance on Friday.  According to the GFS and CMC models, a rather strong Alberta Clipper will move through possibly moving far enough south to tap into the Gulf of Mexico moisture, which could a major storm in the area.  If it does tap into enough moisture, and with the amount of cold air that the GFS and CMC are expecting in the area, I believe that this could a rather potent snowstorm.  Right now, it looks it will be snowing throughout the day Friday, with the possibility of a couple of inches of snow.  Whether or not this comes to fruition, I'm not sure, but one thing I do know is that more than likely very cold weather and cloudy weather will be in place Christmas Day, with the possibility of snow showers.  At this time, I think that indications show a pretty good chance of a white christmas, it just all depends on if that cold air in Canada decides to shift southward.  Stay tuned for further updates.

Alberta Clipper Saturday

It looks like now there could be an Alberta Clipper Saturday, bringing reinforced cold air, and some light snowfall accumulations.  Accumulations will run anywhere from a half an inch to an inch, with light snow Saturday afternoon and night.  Stay tuned for further updates.

Tuesday's Storm Potential

Right now, chances are again increasing for another heavy rainstorm for in our area in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe next week.  For some reason, the arctic air seems to be locked up in Alaska, Siberia, and extreme northern Canada, and will likely continue to be so through mid next week.  After that, everything gets a little fuzzy, especially around Christmas Day.  As for the medium range, next week's storm will more than likely be rain (sorry for you snow lovers, including myself).  This just has not been the December for major snow events.  The storm system will likely form from a cut off low ejecting from the Southwestern United States, into the Ohio and Great Lakes region.  According to the GFS and ECMWF, the storm will take a more southerly route than originally thought (Remember, originally the ECMWF was taking this storm way north of our area.).  The problem with these models is is that they are not showing any cold air north of this system, even it should be there.  So until the models come into agreement, we may not know exactly what will happen until Sunday or Monday.  It is a possibility that we do see a major snow event, especially in light of a good chunk of the models taking the storm system just to the south of our area, leaving us in the cooler, drier air.  This means we probably wont' rise much above the mid to upper 30's on Tuesday.  This might cause a wet and slushy ice storm across the area Tuesday morning.  This is not set in stone, and this may not come to light.  Right now, I think that the storm system will lift north, but the warm front will not pass through the area, keeping the area rainy and cold.  Rainfall amounts with this system will probably be closer to 1-3 inches once again, depending on precipitation type.  At this time, it looks like the rain/snow line will be located in extreme northern Indiana and Ohio, meaning a snowstorm for southern Michigan and northern parts of Indiana and Ohio (This includes everybody north of the Toll Road).  As always, if the storm would happen to shift southward, expect more snow across the entire area.  If the storm would happen to shift northward, expect very heavy rainfall amounts across the area.  As colder air rushes into the region by the end of the storm, a changeover to moderate or heavy snow is anticipated, causing at least minor accumulations.  As for my forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, I expect yet another system to move through, causing snow and wind, potentially accumulating from an Alberta Clipper, or possibly a stronger storm system.  Highs will more than likely be in the 20's on Christmas Day, as cold air finally arrives.  As soon as a new pattern sets up, cold air will finally set in.  This will likely happen in the last few days of December, or January, bringing the worst of winter in January and February.  Stay tuned for further updates.

Forecast Update

More model data has come in, and now it is almost certain (we can never be one hundred percent sure) that rain will fall with this system, in fact even heavily at times.  The latest radar maps have shown heavy rain bands moving in our direction from Illinois and Missouri.  You probably could tell that the storm system was moving closer, as we haven't seen any sun today, unlike yesterday.  The rain bands will continue to move closer to our area, and by late evening to around midnight, the rain will finally arrive and last through most of the night into Wednesday morning.  Here comes the tricky part.  It is still uncertain when the rain will end for a while tomorrow, or if it is going to end.  For right now, I expect a moderate steady rain overnight tonight, amounting to a quarter of an inch with some areas especially west of Fort Wayne, seeing more than a half an inch.  I think that the rain will end around 9 a.m. tomorrow, most likely south of a line from Marion to Van Wert, with areas from Fort Wayne to Antwerp and Toledo seeing light rain throughout the day.  Areas north and west of Fort Wayne, near South Bend, will likely see the rain last throughout much of the day.  In areas where the rain becomes lighter or tapers off, rain will move back into the area by Wednesday afternoon, becoming heavy at times with thunderstorms POSSIBLE.  Right now, I don't think there will be enough instability for much thunderstorm activity, so expect all rain, as a moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico flows straight into the storm.  This will allow for heavy rainfall totals Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  My current thinking is that entire rainfall totals will be near 1-3 inches especially north and west of U.S. Route 24, including Antwerp.  Areas south of this line, will see lesser amounts from 0.75 inches to 1.00 inches.  Any heavy rainfall that occurs Wednesday Night will cause flooding and possibly flash flooding, renewing any river flood threat that has since disappeared.  Thursday morning, rain will be exiting the area, with a pre-frontal squall line moving through the area, bringing showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  Very windy conditions will be possible Wednesday night during the heavy rain, with gusts up to 40 mph.  As the cold front moves through Thursday, temperatures will drop from the lower 50's in the morning, to the mid 30's by Thursday evening.  Temperatures from Friday to Monday will likely be in lower to mid 30's on some days, with possibly a warming trend to start next week off.  This the uncertain part.  The ECMWF is forecasting much colder temperatures along with its ensembles.  With this in mind, the last several runs of the ECMWF have trended slightly farther northward, bringing a very strong storm system right over our area by Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will probably be cooler than what the NWS is forecasting, with highs in the low to mid 30's, as clouds increase ahead of this strong storm system.  The ECMWF is showing sleet and freezing over most of the area, as the 540 line (thickness between different levels of the atmosphere, this line indicates where snow will likely fall), will be positioned right over us or just to the south, but with below freezing temperatures.  This means that warm air aloft will cause melting of the snow, but it will refreeze once it falls to earth.  This could mean a heavy sleet and freezing rain storm for the area by next Monday night and Tuesday, with all precipitation changing to heavy snow by Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Remember this storm is about a week off, so a lot things could change by then, hopefully for the better, more snow!  Another one of the computer models, the GFS, is forecasting the storm track to be quite a bit farther to the north, bringing heavy rain into the region and even heavier rainfall amounts than the current storm system.  The thing is is that the GFS has precipitation ending as heavy snow across the area by Tuesday afternoon, as temperatures drop rapidly from the lower 40's to the 20's.  As I said before, this whole forecast could change for the better or for the worse in the next couple of days so stay tuned for further updates.  One last thing I want to talk about is a white christmas.  Current indications are that we have about a 50/50 chance of having at least an inch of snow on the ground by Christmas, with everything depending on next week's storm.  If it is a snowstorm for the area, snow will probably stick through Christmas, assuming that temperatures do not warm during the rest of the week.  Current indications are saying that after next week's storm, no matter if it is rain, snow, or sleet, will cause temperatures to rapidly tumble, to below normal values.  If forecasts for the warming of the stratosphere over the arctic Christmas week are true, very cold weather will likely stick around for the rest of December and even January, finally becoming aligned with the winter forecast of below normal temperatures.  Hopefully this is what happens, because I am tired of seeing warmth and rain, I want it to snow!  Keep checking my blog for further updates as this situation progresses.

Not Just One but Two

After looking at most computer models, most of them still don't seem to be in agreement with this next storm system, which will, at this time, likely produce rain.  I really do think the GFS and the ECMWF are still too far north with this system, as they have been trending southward the last several runs.  Here's my current thinking on the next few days before the storm system hits.  Today, highs will be limited to middle thirties, or even colder in areas that have more snow cover, such as southern Michigan.  Lows tonight will fall into the lower and middle 20's, making for another frosty Monday morning.  Highs will warm even more Monday, as a large ridge builds in the East.  Temperatures will reach the upper 30's, if not lower 40's.  By Monday night, temperatures will not be allowed to cool as much even with the snow cover in some areas, as warm air advection takes place.  By Tuesday, thick clouds will move into the region, along with a weak upper level shortwave.  The air will still be too dry to allow this system to produce any considerable precipitation around here, but to the north and west (Chicago and northwest), precipitation will be likely.  Clouds will increase in coverage Tuesday night, as the next storm system approaches from the southwest.  Some computer models such as the GFS, have the system moving through faster, therefore producing less rain, but coming earlier.  Others, such as the ECMWF have the system moving more slowly and farther too the north.  At this time, I don't think that either of these solutions are correct.  I'm forecasting that the storm system will approach the area by Wednesday morning, bringing rain into the region by mid to late morning.  With how much moisture that will be associated with this system (even though the GFS and ECMWF aren't showing much), I expect rainfall totals to be heavy, possibly in excess of one or two inches.  This will really get flooding problems going again, with moderate flooding coming back to the Maumee river.  The system could end with snowfall, possibly 1-2 inches of it.  This would happen if the storm system would happen to take a more southerly route, bringing the cold air farther southward into the United States than what the GFS and ECMWF are forecasting.  I think that this system will take a more southerly route, mainly because I don't think the GFS has a good handle on the southwest cut-off low, and the fact that the ECMWF is almost always warm biased, causing it to bring storm systems to far to the north.  With the more southerly solution, expect heavy rainfall and flooding, possibly ending as moderate to heavy snow on Thursday night.  By Friday and Saturday, cold air causes temperatures to drop into the upper 20's, but not much colder mainly because the fast, progressive flow aloft will not allow the cold air to leave Canada.  By the end of the weekend into early next week, I really think that a new storm system will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley, tracking northeastward into the Ohio Valley.  This next system could be a major snowstorm for us, or even a rain event changing to heavy snow for 6-12 hours.  Either way, this next system could be the storm system that brings our first heavy snowfall of the season.  Continue checking my blog for further updates.

Another Complex and Uncertain Pattern on the Horizon

Well, for any snow lovers out there, the pattern may not look that great for you guys.  All afternoon, and through most of the evening, I've been monitoring the general forecasted pattern by the models.  For starters, let's talk about the short term.  Currently, widespread thick clouds are spreading into the region from the west, indicative of a storm system approaching.  This storm system is very weak, and I hesitate to call it a storm system, as the precipitation associated with it is being generated by the right entrance region of a jet streak and frontogenetical lifting (A jet streak is an area of higher wind speeds embedded within the jet stream, while the right entrance region of this area of higher wind speeds causes moderate divergence and rising air.  Frontogenetical lifting is lifting that is caused by frontogenesis, a term that means the strengthening of a temperature gradient or strengthening of a low-level front.)  This combined with a frozen temperature profile (all temperatures in the atmosphere above an area are below freezing.) has caused a fairly large area of light to moderate snow in Nebraska and Iowa.  This band of snow will move eastward through the overnight hours, reaching the area by early tomorrow morning; around the 2-4 a.m. time frame.  Because this system is moisture starved, most accumulations will be around an inch or so, with locally higher amounts around 2 inches especially east and south of Fort Wayne.  Most, if not all snow showers will have left the area by mid-afternoon according to the NAM, leaving behind a few flurries especially closer to Lake Michigan.  As the low-level cold front moves through the area, expect morning highs in the upper 20's or possibly lower 30's, dropping into the low to mid 20's by afternoon.  I would expect some clearing by afternoon, but I'm not so sure on this.  On the other hand, I do expect more cloud cover north of Fort Wayne, due to the lake effect, but also more cloud cover in areas east of Fort Wayne, mainly because the storm system will still have lingering snow showers.  Friday night, temperatures will continue dropping under partly cloudy skies, and combined with fresh, powdery snow on the ground, temperatures will probably drop lower than what the NWS and most other forecasters are saying, into the lower teens and mid teens in areas that do not see much snow.  By Saturday, a very cold arctic air mass will move into the region, causing highs to only reach the mid 20's, if not lower 20's, even with abundant sunshine.  This will be the coldest air of the season, as it is well below normal for this time of year.  This cold is not long lasting, as it will move out just as quickly as it got here.  By Sunday, temperatures will rebound into the lower if not mid or upper 30's.  Monday through Wednesday, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30's, with higher temperatures possible, under sunny skies.  Wednesday night, the next storm system approaches.  Since temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the mid or upper 20's, expect any precipitation that falls during the night to be snow.  So if temperatures are colder than what was originally expected, I would expect a significant amount of icy or snowy precipitation.  On Thursday, the warm front will pass through the area, causing temperatures to rise significantly, along with heavy rainfall and gusty winds, ahead of a very strong low pressure system in the plains.  What I make of model data, is that the storm will pass west of the area through the Central Plains.  At this time, if the cold air holds on longer in the Plains, the storm will be suppressed to the south, allowing for the possibility of a major snow event in at least northern parts of our area.  I don't think the solution of a southern track looks all that plausible, but it certainly is possibility.  More than likely, it will start out as snow or sleet, become heavy rain on Thursday, and after the cold front moves through, rapidly falling temperatures and the possibility of lingering snow.  After the storm moves through, very cold air will once again filter into the region.  According to the latest runs of some major models, this next shot of cold air could be longer lasting, preparing the way for a major snowstorm possibly in the Christmas week time frame.  This is all for now.  If you have any questions e-mail at storm_reportsjoshua@yahoo.com.

Quieter Weather On the Way. Revised Winter Forecast Summary

After yesterday's snowfall, snow accumulations ranged from about one inch in Fort Wayne, to about one and one half inch in Antwerp, to more than two inches over some parts of Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio.  This indicates that my forecasted snowfall amounts were higher than what actually happened.  I anticipated this, mainly because of a dry slot moving through around 10 p.m. last night.  This shut off the steady snow earlier than what short range models were anticipating.  Overall, I think that my forecast for this storm was more accurate than last week's first snowstorm of the season.  As I explained yesterday, cloud cover lingered all day today, mainly because the upper level storm system is not moving very quickly to the east.  Because of this, another piece of energy in the upper level westerlies will quickly phase with this system right along the east coast by Wednesday Night.  This will cause a rapid deepening of the low pressure system just off the east coast.  This storm seems very similar to what happened back in October with the Halloween Blizzard.  During normal Nor'easters, cold air precedes the storm system in a shallow wedge of cold air ahead of the warm front, making the East Coast a favorable location for heavy snow and sleet.  In this system, because the teleconnections don't seem to be cooperating with the entire weather pattern, warm air will precede the storm.  This will likely make most of the precipitation rain before a rapid changeover to heavy snow in quite a few locations from Virginia through Southeast New York through Maine.  Maine will likely see the heaviest snow, because cold air will come before the storm hits, causing most if not all of the precipitation to be snow.  At the same time this storm system is hitting the east, a very sharp and pronounced arctic cold front will move into our area from the northwest Thursday afternoon.  Because of preceding chilly air, expect all precipitation to be snow Thursday Night into Friday.  Right now it is unclear how much snow will get from this system, but because of limited moisture moving into the system (due in part to the East Coast storm), I expect only a narrow band of light to moderate snow to move through before the passage of the cold front.  This could cause some snowfall accumulations of around an inch or two especially in Southern Michigan.  In most of our area, expect snowfall of around inch or less.  After the cold front moves, temperatures will fall rapidly from the lower 30's on Friday, to the mid teens Friday Night.  Personally, I think that temperatures will be colder than this, due to the nature of this air mass, a true arctic air mass.  Combined with fresh powdery snowfall and clear skies, temperatures COULD fall into the lower teens.  The colder it gets Friday night, the colder the highs will be on Saturday.  If temperatures fall to levels that I have forecast, highs on Saturday will barely make it above 25 on Saturday.  Some areas might not make it above 23 on Saturday.  This will make for the coldest air of the season.  Sad thing is, the cold air will not last long, as yet another disturbance in the upper levels makes its way into the Midwest, shooting much warmer air into the region by Sunday and Monday.  Highs Sunday and Monday will probably in the mid 30's under partly sunny skies.  By midweek next week, another major storm system will be possible.  At this time it looks like it will be a mostly snow event, with the possibility of rain and sleet mixing in at times.  According to the GFS, precipitation will start off as snow, then change to rain or freezing rain for a short time, then change back to snow, and probably become heavy at times late next week.  If this solution becomes more probable as the event comes nearer, then I would not be surprised with snowfall amounts of around a foot, especially if the teleconnections line up (they could, you never know).  Right now, it does look probable that we would get snow, as the weather pattern looks probable for snow.  Even if only a few inches or nothing comes, the GFS is forecasting extremely cold air to enter the United States.  This time, instead of the polar vortex shifting southward (such as in the arctic outbreak this weekend), the teleconnections will more than likely line up for a major cold air mass to enter into the United States via the Upper Plains and Midwest.  This situation will have to be monitored for the possibility of a major snow storm and cold outbreak. 
   As for the information on this year's snow season.  Going with the pattern that has been prevalent the past month or two, I expect a very wet winter this year, even more so than what I was originally predicting.  I am also expecting temperatures to be not as cold as originally predicted, but there will be much more variation in temperature this year than last year, making for a very stormy winter.  Therefore, I have raised overall snowfall amounts for this winter.  I do not want to release snowfall amount projections, mainly because long-range snowfall amounts are almost never right.  I can tell you right now, I even think this winter will be snowier than last winter.  We are already much above normal for snowfall, with 5.2 inches falling Fort Wayne, nearly 5 inches falling in Antwerp, and other areas such as Defiance just about 2.5 inches for the winter season.  In fact, we have already had more snow than South Bend has, and they also have yet to see snow accumulating this winter.  Typically, when a season starts out above normal for snowfall at Fort Wayne, then snowfall amounts throughout the entire winter season will be above normal.  If they start out below normal there is no correlation between any extreme during the winter season.  My forecast is calling much above normal snowfall for this area throughout the winter, with the heaviest snowfall and cold air coming in late January through February.  December will probably turn out near normal for temperatures and above normal for snowfall and precipitation.  Stay tuned for further updates.

Forecast Update.

Well, new model data has come in.  The HRRR is forecasting around 2-3 inches of snow for most of the area especially east and north of Fort Wayne, mainly east of the Ohio border.  Some areas will likely get into the range of 3-5 inches according to this model, mainly north of a line from Antwerp to Defiance.  So here is what is likely to happen.  Rain will continue for the next hour or so before transitioning to snow.  It looks like their will be a very short transition between the rain and snow, as cold air will rush into the area.  Moderate to heavy snow could fall for a couple of hours mainly from 6 to 9 p.m., reducing visibilities and creating slick, icy, and snow covered roads over a good chunk of the area.  After 9 p.m., the snow will likely gradually taper off from light snow, and finally get over with by around 11 or 12 p.m.  By tomorrow, it looks there may be more clouds than were originally forecast, in my opinion.  This is because the system has been slow to move out, I would expect thinner clouds especially by afternoon, but I think the clouds will linger a little longer.  So don't be surprised that clouds hang on longer tomorrow.  Overall, clouds will be clearing by afternoon, with temperatures warming into the mid 30's, and with some snowpack, I expect temperatures tomorrow night to drop into the low to mid 20's. 

Forecast Update

The forecast hasn't changed much for the area, except for the fact that snow totals may not be as high as I was forecasting this morning.  The latest GFS and NAM have forecasted only snowfall amounts around an inch or less, as the cold air fails to interact with the system in time for any significant accumulations.  Right now, I think that the highest snowfall accumulations will be along and north of U.S. Highway 24, up to the Michigan border.  These accumulations will be along the lines of 1-3 inches, with isolated amounts of 4 inches.  Areas south of U.S. Highway 24 will likely less than one inch with some areas likely to receive little or no snow accumulation.  What I expect to happen is that rain will fall through about 2 p.m., then transitioning over to snow for the rest of the afternoon, with the snow likely to fall moderately at times, mixing with rain at some points.  By late afternoon and early evening, snow will still be falling through about 10 p.m., before the precipitation ends.  Temperatures on Monday, will be steady in the upper 30's, before falling rapidly in the mid to late afternoon down to the lower 30's and upper 20's.  Temperatures Monday Night will fall into the upper 20's and remain steady throughout the night.  By Tuesday, cloudy and cold conditions will prevail with highs only in the mid to upper 30's. 
   Now, I want to talk about the heavy rain potential.  According to the latest GFS and NAM runs, the area of heaviest rain has shifted this morning southward into Central Ohio.  My current thinking is that everybody along and southeast of 24 and U.S. 30, will likely have rainfall amounts of 1-2.5 inches on Monday, which means the Maumee River will likely see more flooding.  Around Antwerp, expect rainfall of 1-1.5 inches of rain Sunday Night through Monday morning.  Areas in Central Ohio will likely see rainfall of 2-4 inches, possibly up to 6 inches.  This will likely create severe flooding problems in many areas.  Around here, flooding will get worse, and probably cause the river to rise again.  Stay tuned for further updates.