Synopis through Saturday.

Currently, mostly cloudy to overcast conditions prevail across Northwest Ohio, with embedded showers in this mass of swirling clouds.  The upper level low is currently over Northwest Indiana, which has been weakening very steadily over the last day.  This weakening will allow the upper level jet stream over Canada to pick up the remnants of the upper level low, while at the same time causing several strong shortwaves to build a rather large longwave trough.  With the showers today, the National Weather Service has predicted the possibility of funnel clouds in any shower that hits your area.  They said that these are not dangerous and are not the same kind of funnel clouds as the ones that form in strong thunderstorms.  Do not be alarmed.  If you see one, report it to the emergency manager and you can also send me pictures and I can relay them to the National Weather Service.  Today, conditions are expected to remain overcast through most of the day.  Due to the weakening of the upper level low, there may be some clearing of the cloud cover over the area today, as dry air tries to enter into the system.  Expect highs today in the lower 60's, while some areas that receive less cloud cover may see highs in the mid 60's.  Any daytime heating will cause convective instability, and combined with cold air aloft, this may cause the development of scattered thunderstorms that may produce heavy rain and some gusty winds, with the possibility of small hail also.  Tonight, expect scattered light showers to continue, with continued mostly cloudy to overcast conditions likely.  Expect lows in the upper 40's and maybe lower 50's, especially in areas with thicker cloud cover tonight.  From Thursday through Sunday, as the jet stream begins to pick up the remnants of the upper level low, a major trough will begin to form over the Eastern United States.  At the surface, a major storm system will form, as a 992 mb low forms in Southern Canada.  This major storm system will cause a tight pressure gradient, allowing for strong winds to traverse the area on Friday and Friday Night.  Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph, gusting to 30 mph.  This along with cloudy, showery, cool conditions on Friday, will cause uncomfortable conditions for people who are outside.  This major trough, will continue to deepen, becoming another upper level low, but this time just off the East Coast.  This means that we won't get the same dreary conditions that we have been having this week.  By Saturday, the surface cold air mass and associated high pressure system, will allow for strong radiational cooling, and presenting the possibility of frost to the area.  According to the National Weather Service, there is a strong possibility of frost Saturday, because of the forecast of light winds, clear skies, and a cold Canadian air mass.  By Sunday, a lower level ridge is expected to move into the area, bringing a very dry, but warmer air mass into the region.  As next week progresses, an upper level ridge will also move into the area, influencing the weather over a large part of the United States.  With this ridge, I expect temperatures to be warm, while skies will be clear and free of rain.  As I said in yesterday's forecast, temperatures could even warm into the upper 70's and lower 80's by next Wednesday or Thursday.

Official Forecast Through Saturday Night

Wednesday: High 62. Overcast.  Numerous showers likely.  Some showers may have funnel clouds, brief heavy downpours, and thunder.  Chance of rain 90%.  Rainfall amounts ranging from 0.2 inches to 0.75 inches in areas that receive heavy rain bands.
Wednesday Night: Low 49.  Scattered to numerous showers over the area.  Overcast at first, becoming mostly cloudy.  Chance of rain 70% decreasing to 30%. Fog possible.
Thursday: High 71.  Mostly cloudy. Instability and shear will be enough to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms, with some severe by afternoon, especially in Northwest Ohio. Patchy fog possible in the morning. Chance of rain 90%.
Thursday Night: Low 51.  Overcast.  Widespread showers likely, especially after midnight.  Chance of rain 30% at first, becoming 70% after 3 a.m.
Friday: High 56. Overcast.  Windy.  Winds from northwest at 20-30 mph.  Scattered showers throughout the area.  Showers likely.
Friday Night: Low 37.  Mostly cloudy in the early evening, becoming clear after 9 p.m. Windy at first, becoming calm later in the evening.  Frost possible, especially in the early morning hours.
Saturday: High 56.  Mostly sunny.  Much drier than in recent days.  Very nice day, but chilly at the same time.
Saturday Night: Low 35.  Mostly clear.  Light winds and clear winds, make for a great night for the formation of frost.  Some areas, especially north of here, could hit below freezing, especially in more isolated areas.

Forecast through Friday

About two hours ago, a large and intense band of heavy rain moved through Antwerp, and was heading north-northeast.  With this system, expect heavy rain with amounts in excess of a half inch, with some gusty winds including.  If you happen to get hit by some of the heavier bands of rain, expect rainfall amounts closer to one inch.  Here in the Antwerp, the band of rain dumped just over four-tenths of an inch, in a little less than an hour.  Currently, the clouds over Antwerp are just beginning to break, forming a raggedy appearance in the sky, with some sunshine peaking through.  As the surface low over Northwest Indiana moves slowly to the east, expect clouds to increase and become overcast once again along with showers and possibly a thunderstorm increasing in coverage over the area, especially during the overnight hours.  Tonight, skies will remain overcast as the rain bands continue to affect the area.  Lows will fall to around 51 tonight, as overcast skies will keep temperatures steady.  Any rainfall tonight will not be that heavy with rainfall amounts amounting to 0.25-0.4 maximum.  By tomorrow, the surface low will be located just north of South Bend right along the state line, and it will weaken and dissipate by Wednesday afternoon, ahead of the next storm system. Tomorrow's highs will be around 62, with areas farther east, such as in Defiance, will see temperatures near 65 tomorrow.  Most areas will see mostly cloudy to overcast skies, along with the renewed threat for showers.  Showers will likely still be numerous tomorrow, with some of the showers becoming especially in areas that see some sunshine, which will add to the instability in the atmosphere.  Expect rainfall amounts to be on the lighter side with about 0.25 inches falling during the day in Antwerp.  By Wednesday night, expect light scattered showers to continue even after the surface low pressure system dissipates.  Lows will fall into the upper 40's, around 48.  Skies Wednesday night, will likely begin to clear up.  Instead of overcast skies all night, expect skies to become mostly cloudy, especially by early morning.  On Thursday, highs will probably be higher than in recent days, mainly due to less cloud cover, and the fact that the next cold front will approach from the north on Thursday.  Highs will rise into the upper 60's and lower 70's, even as the chance of scattered light showers prevails along with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.  Overnight, skies will begin to cloud up again, as the next storm system approaches from the north.  Because of increasing clouds, expect lows in the upper 40's or lower 50's. During the overnight hours, the storm system approaching from the north will curve toward the southeast and east, while intensifying rapidly at the same time.  According to the GFS computer model, this low will intensify to minimum low pressure of 992 millibars by early Friday morning.  The intensification of this low pressure system and its movement will determine how much rain we get Friday, and how windy it will get.  According to computer models, this strong storm system will be located over the far eastern part of the U.P. of Michigan (near Sault St. Marie).  So I expect that showers will increase in coverage across the area early Friday morning and into the afternoon under cloudy skies.  I also expect winds to significantly increase early Friday morning, with sustained winds increasing to about 20-25 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph.  Not only will Friday be miserable with gusty winds, cloudy, wet conditions, but temperatures will also be on the cool side with highs in the 56-59 degree range.  This will make for a miserable day Friday.

For the long range, on Friday night, expect scattered showers to continue, along with gusty winds early on, but decreasing in intensity later on in the night, along with clearing skies.  Saturday, the intense low pressure system over southern Canada, will begin to weaken and move eastward, decreasing our threat for rain on Saturday.  Due to a major cold air mass moving into the region, temperatures on Saturday will be very similar to Friday's, with temperatures in the mid to upper 50's.  But instead of cloudy, wet conditions, expect partly sunny skies and light winds for Saturday.  By Sunday and Monday, and a warming trend will begin, with highs sliding back into the upper 60's and lower 70's.  Throughout next week, I am expecting a major ridge to move into the area, which could support highs in the lower to middle 80's by next Wednesday or Thursday.  This large ridge of high pressure, will become stagnant over the area for several days, before a major longwave trough digs into the central plains, causing the first in a series of storm systems that could affect us by the end of next week.

Ridge of high pressure aloft will cause above normal temperatures next week

Official Forecast through Thursday Night.

This forecast is based on MOS guidance, current conditions, and trends.
Tuesday:  High 62. Overcast. Numerous and widespread showers throughout the day.  Chance of rain 90%.  Rainfall amounts around 0.25 inches
Tuesday Night: Low 49.  Overcast.  Numerous showers in the area.  Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday: High 63. Variable clouds ranging from mostly cloudy to overcast. Numerous, widespread showers more likely in the afternoon. Perhaps a rumble of thunder.  Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday Night: Low 49. Mostly cloudy to overcast. Scattered light showers possible.  Chance of rain 40%. 
Thursday: High 70. Mostly cloudy to overcast. Showers possible.  Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday Night: Low 49. Mostly cloudy.  A few scattered showers possible.  Chance of rain 30%.
 
Long range forecast; Friday through Monday: On Thursday, conditions will generally clear up ahead of the next system.  Along with mostly cloudy conditions, expect a slight chance of showers on Thursday with highs in the lower 70's, making for a pretty comfortable day.  On Friday, the next storm system will bring a renewed chance of showers.  These showers will arrive with gusty winds and chilly conditions, as highs will probably only make it to the upper 50's.  By Saturday, mostly cloudy conditions will be the rule with temperatures even colder than the day before, with highs around 57.  Saturday Night brings the possibility of our first frost, as the month of October gets underway.  By Sunday, a 500 millibar ridge will begin building in the central plains, and move eastward by Monday, allowing warmer temperatures to reside over the region.

Rain is Upon a Large Portion of the Area

As of 7:50 p.m., rain is falling heavily here in Antwerp.  According to the radar, the large band of rain that stretches from the Michigan/Ohio border to Memphis, TN, is moving northward and intensifying, just as expected.  Over the next several hours, the rain will continue to increase in areal coverage and intensity, producing rainfall amounts up to a half inch in the next two hours or so.  After this even heavier rain will arrive, causing heavy rainfall amounts.  The arrival of the thunderstorms will only make matters worse, as their downpours will tremendously increase rainfall amounts.  This along with saturated ground from previous rains, could cause some localized urban and small stream flooding, especially in the overnight hours when the rain will be at its heaviest.  As a reminder, tomorrow is expected to have widespread rain and thunderstorms in the morning, followed by scattered light showers in the afternoon, under mostly cloudy skies.  As for temperatures tonight and tomorrow, temperatures currently in the upper 50's (highs only made it to the lower 60's at Fort Wayne, but in areas farther east, such as Defiance and Toledo, temperatures made it into the upper 60's and lower 70's.), will continue to rise due to warm-air advection occurring in the 850 millibar layer of the atmosphere.  As I said in the last blogpost, warm-air advection is part of the reason for the intensification of the rain band and the formation of the thunderstorms overnight.

Official Weather Forecast Through Tuesday Night.

This forecast is based on MOS guidance, current conditions, and trends.
Sunday Night: Low 58.  Overcast. Widespread, numerous showers and thunderstorms, in the form of bands of rain and storms swinging through the area.  Chance of rain 100%.  Heavy rainfall possible.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches expected in most areas.
Monday: High 70.  Mostly cloudy to Overcast.  Widespread rain and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming scattered and light by afternoon, with some breaks in the clouds. Chance of rain 75%.
Monday Night: Low 53.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially after midnight.  Chance of rain 50%.  Rain will generally increase in coverage in the later evening hours. Rainfall amounts 0.25 inches or less.  
Tuesday:  High 65. Mostly cloudy to overcast. Numerous showers in the morning, giving way to widespread light rain in the afternoon.  Chance of rain 60%.  Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25-0.5 inches.
Tuesday Night: Low 49.  Overcast.  Showers likely, becoming more intermittent by early morning.  Chance of rain 60%
Long range forecast; Wednesday through Saturday: Showers will continue on Wednesday as the upper level low continues to sit and move slowly eastward.  Further more, by Thursday, clouds will be clearing up and the sun will finally come out.  Temperatures on Thursday will warm into the lower 70's, which will feel like a nice change compared to what's been happening.  On Friday, a long wave trough builds into the region, allowing a much colder air mass to settle into the area.  Because of little moisture accompanied with this trough, I would only expect at the most a few showers on Friday.  Friday's highs will be in the lower 60's, while Saturday temperatures will be even colder with highs in the upper 50's.  By Sunday, temperatures will moderate as the flow aloft becomes very unstable and meridional, meaning that large troughs and ridges are causing large fluctuations in surface weather.  Temperatures will rise into the upper 60's, ahead of the next storm system on Sunday.

Main area of rain Moving into the Region.

After hours of light shower activity, the main area of rain is finally shifting into our area from the southwest.  The rain will become heavier and more widespread as the evening progresses, becoming heavy by late evening.  As the rain becomes heavier, we have an increased chance for thunderstorms overnight.  Tonight, there are several factors that will support the chance of heavy rain and possibly localized flooding.  One is higher Precipitable Water values over the area, especially areas northeast of Fort Wayne.  Higher amounts of Precipitable Water in the atmosphere indicates the potential for heavy rainfall (generally rainfall amounts will be near the precipitable water value over a location, without the addition of other factors).  Another factor is convergence induced by convective processes and dynamic processes.  The convective processes that are causing convergence are higher values of Theta-E (measure of instability and buoyancy in the atmosphere) and moisture/warm air advection, which is also causing the air to become more buoyant and unstable.  One of the major factors associated with the convergence caused by dynamic processes is the jet stream.  The jet stream over us (or a branch of the jet stream), is causing upper level divergence over our area, which indicates low level convergence is occurring at the same time.  Convergence will cause a concentration of moisture over a smaller area, the corridor from Fort Wayne into Northwest Ohio.  The uplift with the convergence will cause thunderstorms to form, which will enhance heavy rainfall and possibly flooding.  Rainfall amounts from this evening to overnight will be from 1-2 inches area wide, with some areas picking up 2.5 inches (but this is very unlikely).  So expect rain to begin shortly and become more widespread and intense over the area especially by the late evening hours.  Overnight, thunderstorms are possible, with some producing intense rainfall for long periods of time.  I really don't expect much in the way of severe weather, expect for the possibility of flash flooding.  At this time, widespread flooding is really not expected because of near normal soil moisture conditions, while areas west of here have drier than normal soil moisture conditons.  According to forecast models, heavy rain/thunderstorms will occur into the early to mid morning hours tomorrow.  After that, conditions will generally clear up and by mid to late afternoon partly cloudy conditions will appear over some parts of the area, especially in areas farther west, as the main rain bands move into central Michigan.

Official Weather Forecast Through Tuesday.

This forecast is based on MOS guidance, current conditions, and trends.
Sunday: High 68.  Mostly cloudy. Scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm, becoming more widespread and numerous by late afternoon and evening.  Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday Night: Low 58.  Overcast. Widespread, numerous showers and thunderstorms, in the form of bands of rain and storms swinging through the area.  Chance of rain 95%.  Heavy rainfall possible.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches possible in some areas.
Monday: High 70.  Mostly cloudy to Overcast.  Widespread rain and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming scattered and light by afternoon, with some breaks in the clouds. Chance of rain 60%.
Monday Night: Low 53.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially after midnight.  Chance of rain 50%.  Rain will generally increase in coverage in the later evening hours. Rainfall amounts 0.25-0.4 inches.
Tuesday:  High 65. Mostly cloudy to overcast. Numerous showers in the morning, giving way to widespread light rain in the afternoon.  Chance of rain 60%.  Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25-0.5 inches.
Long-range; Wednesday through Friday: On Wednesday, the upper level low over the area will have moved east of the area.  This will allow skies to clear up and to allow some sunshine into the area for Wednesday afternoon.  By Thursday, expect partly cloudy conditions and highs in the 70's.  By Friday, expect slightly cooler temperatures due to a colder air mass moving into the region.  Highs on Friday will be in the upper 60's.
Synoptic forecast: The upper level low will finally move out of the area by Wednesday afternoon and become part of the mean flow aloft, meaning it will finally dissipate.  Over the next week or so, several shortwaves will move over the area causing several storm systems to form, even though we will be in a warmer pattern.  Then, according to computer models, a major longwave trough will develop over the East Coast.  After this the shortwaves rounding the peak of the ridge in the west will cause the eastward progression of the strong ridge of high pressure from the West to the East, which will influence the much warmer temperatures expected to move into our area.

A Band of Stronger Storms entering into the region.

Currently, as of 6:40 p.m., a band of thunderstorms is entering into parts of Northwest Ohio.  This band of thunderstorms is causing prolonged periods of heavy rain, and some brief periods of gusty are also possible. This band of thunderstorms is about to enter into Ohio and extends from Fort Wayne northward toward Angola.  According to radar trends, this system of storms will move north of Antwerp, but Hicksville will probably be hit by the heaviest of the rain.  With how slowly this storm is moving and the fact that the storms are moving due north, will allow for the possibility of heavy rainfall accumulations especially in northern Defiance and Williams County.  Over the next several hours, rain and storm activity will diminish quite rapidly, with improving conditions until about midnight.  There may even be a few breaks in the clouds between now and midnight.  After that the upper level low will strengthen, causing a thickening of cloud cover and the formation of rain.  By early morning, rain showers should continue to increase along with the possibility of thunderstorms.  Sunday afternoon, temperatures will only rise to near 66 for a high, while rain and thunderstorm bands will be on the increase.  By Sunday Night are heaviest rainfall will occur before the upper level low begins to move out the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Here is the link to real-time radar for Doppler Radar images: Doppler Radar Display

Official Weather Forecast Through Tuesday.

This forecast is based on MOS guidance, current conditions, and trends.
Sunday: High 68.  Mostly cloudy. Scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm, becoming more widespread and numerous by late afternoon and evening.  Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday Night: Low 58.  Overcast. Widespread, numerous showers and thunderstorms, in the form of bands of rain and storms swinging through the area.  Chance of rain 95%.  Heavy rainfall possible.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches possible in some areas.
Monday: High 70.  Mostly cloudy to Overcast.  Widespread rain and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming scattered and light by afternoon, with some breaks in the clouds. Chance of rain 60%.
Monday Night: Low 53.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially after midnight.  Chance of rain 50%.  Rain will generally increase in coverage in the later evening hours. Rainfall amounts 0.25-0.4 inches.
Tuesday:  High 65. Mostly cloudy to overcast. Numerous showers in the morning, giving way to widespread light rain in the afternoon.  Chance of rain 60%.  Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25-0.5 inches.
Long-range; Wednesday through Friday: On Wednesday, the upper level low over the area will have moved east of the area.  This will allow skies to clear up and to allow some sunshine into the area for Wednesday afternoon.  By Thursday, expect partly cloudy conditions and highs in the 70's.  By Friday, expect slightly cooler temperatures due to a colder air mass moving into the region.  Highs on Friday will be in the upper 60's.
Synoptic forecast: The upper level low will finally move out of the area by Wednesday afternoon and become part of the mean flow aloft, meaning it will finally dissipate.  Over the next week or so, several shortwaves will move over the area causing several storm systems to form, even though we will be in a warmer pattern.  Then, according to computer models, a major longwave trough will develop over the East Coast.  After this the shortwaves rounding the peak of the ridge in the west will cause the eastward progression of the strong ridge of high pressure from the West to the East, which will influence the much warmer temperatures expected to move into our area.

Break for Tonight. Returning by Saturday Night. Warming trend later

As you may have noticed, the clouds have generally cleared in the last couple of hours as originally forecast.  I expect that conditions should remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout the night, with only a very slight chance of showers.  As the upper level low progresses westward, tomorrow will start out with partly to mostly cloudy conditions along with light winds.  By late afternoon, showers will pop again, as a southerly flow aloft will direct air with greater moisture content into the area.  By nightfall, rain chances will increase, with the added possibility of thunderstorms especially after midnight.  Any rainfall that falls will be light to moderate with the most amount of rain falling will be around 0.5 inches or less (Locally higher amounts possible, but not likely).  By Sunday, rain will be likely (60to 80% chance), with the rain becoming widespread by afternoon.  Thunderstorms will also be likely.  This could cause rainfall amounts to be on the heavy side, up to one inch on Sunday.  Sunday Night, overcast conditions with continued bands of rain is expected.  According to MOS data, rainfall will lighten up Sunday Night, therefore there won't be as much rain.  I expect only 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain Sunday Night.  By Monday, the rain will redevelop with an even higher likelihood for rain and thunderstorms.  Rain could be pretty heavy on Monday, with rainfall of 0.75 inches to 1.5 inches possible.  By Tuesday, the possibility of scattered thunderstorms will continue, with much lighter rainfall amounts than in recent days.  The possibility of scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm will continue into Wednesday, before clearing up, as the upper level low associated with this rain moves northeast into Canada.  This will allow the stagnant pattern to break up and move along more swiftly, causing multiple storm systems to affect the region after next week.  Before then, we are expected to experience a short dry period for a few days.

Here is the general forecast through Monday:

Tonight: Low 44.  Partly to Mostly cloudy.  slight chance of showers.  Chance of rain 20%.
Tomorrow: High 65. Mostly Cloudy.  Chance of scattered showers, becoming more widespread by early evening.  Chance of rain 50%.
Tomorrow Night: Low 50.  Overcast throughout the night.  Widespread rain showers likely, possibly becoming a steady rain overnight.  Chance of rain 65%. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches.
Sunday: High 67.  Overcast most of the day.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms, more so in the afternoon after 2 p.m.  Chance of rain 65%.  Rainfall amounts 0.75 in. to 1.00 in.
Sunday Night: Low 53. Overcast.  Showers and thunderstorms likely, widespread throughout the area.  Chance of rain 80%. 
Monday: High 68. Mostly cloudy to Overcast.  Showers and thunderstorms likely, widespread throughout most of the day.  Chance of rain 70%.

Friday through Sunday precipitation amounts

Official Weather Forecast Through Saturday Night and Sunday

Here is the official forecast for the area, based on MOS data, computer models, and current conditions and trends.

Friday:  High 64. Cloudy, with showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Clouds decreasing in coverage by mid-afternoon.  Rain chances vary from 30% in western and central areas of Indiana to near 65% in areas east of Defiance, mainly in the morning hours.   Most of the rain will be done before 10 a.m., though more showers could develop.

Friday Night: Low 45.  Mostly cloudy, becoming cloudier in the early morning hours.  slight chance of scattered showers.  Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday: Generally mostly cloudy throughout the day.  High 63-65.  Chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm.  Chance of rain 30%.

Saturday Night: Variable clouds; partly to mostly cloudy at first becoming mostly cloudy to near overcast overnight.  Rain chances increase.  A chance of showers or a thunderstorm.  Low 44.  Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday: Overcast, with thickening clouds throughout the day.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms, becoming more widespread by afternoon.  High 67. Chance of rain 60%.

Sunday through Wednesday:  An upper level low will remain over the area, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms daily.  The biggest chance for rain and heavy rain will occur on Sunday and Monday, they could be widespread and heavy at times.  Rain clearing up by Wednesday.  Upper level low will leave the region by mid-late week. 

Long-term pattern: The troughing pattern will give way to a major ridge, as a trough builds into the west.  This will cause above normal temperatures in our area in the first week or so of October.

Official Weather Forecast through Saturday

Here is the official forecast for the area, based on MOS data, computer models, and current conditions and trends.

Tonight: Low 54.  Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming overcast later.  A 80% chance of widespread rain, becoming more intermittent by morning.  Some heavier pockets of rain. 

Friday:  High 64. Cloudy, with showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Clouds decreasing in coverage by mid-afternoon.  Rain chances vary from 30% in western and central areas of Indiana to near 65% in areas east of Defiance, mainly in the morning hours. 

Friday Night: Low 45.  Mostly cloudy, becoming cloudier in the early morning hours.  slight chance of scattered showers.  Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday: Variable clouds, mainly mostly cloudy throughout the day.  Highs 65-67.  Chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm.  Chance of rain 30%.

Saturday Night through Tuesday:  An upper level low will remain over the area, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms daily.  The biggest chance for rain and heavy rain will occur on Sunday and Monday, they could be widespread and heavy at times.  Rain clearing up by Wednesday.  Upper level low will leave the region by mid-late week. 

Long-term pattern: The troughing pattern will give way to a major ridge, as a trough builds into the west.  This will cause above normal temperatures in our area in the first week or so of October.

Forecast Through Friday Night. Update

Over most of the area, temperatures are currently residing in the upper 60's to lower 70's, with the coldest locations over Northwest Indiana.  Dew points are pretty low, mainly in the mid to upper 40's areawide.  Over the next couple of hours, I expect cloud cover to be on the increase, as the first band of precipitation in association with the developing cut-off low advances into the area.  We could have a few showers tonight, but according to radar trends, I expect that most of the rain will remain in central and western Indiana and even then most of the precipitation will have dissipated.  Tonight, lows will only drop into the lower to middle 50's, due to persistent cloud cover moving in from the southwest.  Tomorrow, highs will only reach the lower to middle 60's, depending on the amount of the cloud cover.  I'm expecting overcast conditions to continue through 2 p.m., with thickest cloud cover in the morning hours.  There may be some rain tomorrow especially in Northwest Ohio areas.  My calculated rain chances range from 30% in Northeast Indiana to nearly 70% in eastern parts of Northwest Ohio (Defiance on east).  Rain will generally not be widespread with the rain being more showery in nature, with the greatest chance of precipitation in the early to mid morning hours.  The main band of rain will generally be east of this area.  Friday Night, after a break in rain chances during the afternoon, computer models are forecasting a greater chance of rain by the early evening, with the rain being in the form of showers.  Lows Friday Night will be quite a bit colder than tonight, due to decreasing cloud cover overnight and lower dew points.  Lows will drop to around 44 as the skies clear. 
      Over the weekend, chances of rain will begin to increase each day.  On Saturday, expect mostly cloudy conditions with some scattered showers.  A few heavier showers may pop up to, but that depends on the amount of afternoon heating. On Sunday, rain chances will increase, with showers increasing throughout the day.  Some thunderstorms may also show up to.  By Monday, thunderstorm chances will peak, with widespread rainfall being possible.  Even as rain chances increase, expect temperatures to gradually recover from the mid 60's to the lower 70's by Monday.  Soon this upper level cut-off low will decide to move on with the general flow aloft, bringing back nicer conditions and a faster pattern instead of a more stagnant one.  On a side note, I will have an update to my winter forecast sometime in mid-to late October depending on several things.

snapshot of forecasted upper level low over our area

simulated radar for Friday morning

Frontal passage this afternoon and evening. Much cooler and cloudier weather on the way.

current surface map

Today, a cold front is expected to pass through most of the area before 6 p.m.  With this cold front, I don't expect ANY shower or thunderstorm activity before it passes through, mainly because of limited moisture (upper 50's dew points) not much lifting from the cold front, and the weakening of the strong cyclone over extreme Southern Canada. Some areas east of Defiance may receive a shower or thunderstorm just before the cold front mainly because of better moisture available to lift.  Tonight, the clouds are expected to thicken and increase in coverage as the cyclone continues to occlude.  Along with increasing wind, I do expect lows to fall into the lower to middle 50's.  But the low dew points (dew points are expected to be in the low to middle 40's), the low could fall below this value, maybe as cold as 47 or 48, especially if cloud cover is not as much as expected.  Later, this week, the strong upper level low that is causing this strong system over Canada will develop into a large trough over a large portion of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, later becoming a rather large cut-off low.  This will cause the weather to stagnate and could become rather cloudy, wet, and chilly for a few days, especially Friday through Sunday, with the pattern continuing into next week.  Due to cold air aloft, any afternoon heating next week could cause daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially since this cut off low is expected to draw in more moisture.  After this, according to the GFSx model, the cut-off low will finally be absorbed into the upper level flow, and the pattern should shift, allowing the ridge over the western ridge to finally move eastward, bringing much warmer weather to the East.

GFS model forecasts

Winter forecast 2011-2012

   After three months of very hot weather here in Northwest Ohio, your all probably wondering what will happen this fall and winter. Well, I have finally compiled my own forecast for the coming four months, based on ENSO conditions, Pacific Multi-Decadal Oscillation, NAO, and analog past years. Since Accuweather nor NOAA has succeeded with coming up with a seasonal forecast, for this fall or winter, I was forced to do quite a bit of research and insight. As a side note, this is only a preliminary forecast, do not treat this as official or as accurate, because a lot of things may change before this fall/winter season begins. Much of my research was done with the Climate Prediction Center's forecasts for ENSO, NAO, and the Arctic Oscillation. Some of it is based off of trends that have been observed in the last several winters and over the last year and a half.

    In the last month and a half, the Climate Prediction Center has issued multiple forecasts on ENSO, and they have finally issued something called a La Nina Watch. In the watch statement, the Climate Prediction Center expects near-neutral to slightly negative ENSO values to continue into late November and early December, which is quite a bit different last year (last year we had rapidly falling temperature anomalies in the Pacific leading to a very strong La Nina). This combined with La Nina like conditions still present over most of the North Hemisphere (abnormally strong jet stream over Canada, enhanced convection over Indonesia, drier than normal conditions over western South America, enhanced hurricane activity over the Atlantic Ocean, etc.), will result in the return of conditions similar to last fall and early winter. According to the La Nina watch, SST (sea surface temperatures) anomalies have been falling gradually in Nina region 3.4 and Nina region 4, which has lead the Climate Prediction Center's forecast to call for weak La Nina to return by December (-0.5 to -1.0 degrees below normal). Computer model ensemble forecasts are pointing to a gradual fall into La Nina conditions by November and December, with some computer models such as the CFS and the NCEP CFSv2 models trending toward moderate La Nina conditions by late December. Also, there is usually a historical tendency for strong La Ninas to be followed by slightly weaker La Nina. With all of this in mind, expect La Nina-like conditions to continue or amplify over the coming months. This means wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest, a drier Southern US (which is really bad news for the areas in the exceptional drought currently ongoing across a large portion of the Southern US, this will help it become one of the worst droughts ever recorded. For more information on the drought visit http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.), very wet conditions for the Ohio Valley and adjacent Great Lakes, very warm temperatures across most of the Southern U.S., and no climate inclinations over the Northeast (keep in mind that these forecasts are for the months from December through February, and are not in any way forecasts for this fall.) Another major factor in my winter forecast is the North Atlantic Oscillation. This factor determines where and how strong the jet stream will be positioned over the North Atlantic and North America. Generally, during positive periods of the NAO, there is a strong 500 millibar ridge over the central Atlantic, with strong above normal geopotential heights, while over the Iceland there is a strong 500 millibar trough with much below normal geopotential heights. This situation will lead to a strong south-north pressure gradient and a very strong jet stream blowing from North America across the the North Central Atlantic toward Europe. This leads to cool, wet periods during the summer and mild, stormy periods during the winter over Europe. Generally the NAO does not have much of an effect over North American weather patterns during the summer. In the strong negative phase of the NAO, there are generally above normal geopotential heights near Iceland and Greenland (indicating an upper level ridge) and below normal heights and a much weaker pressure gradient between the central Atlantic and Iceland. This type of pattern causes the jet stream to be obstructed well to the north and causes it to move through Greenland and Iceland. During the winter this causes a major trough across the Midwest and Eastern United States, leading to extreme cold and snow. The same thing also happens in Europe. One thing about the NAO is that it can be never be predicted that accurately more than three weeks in advance. But many meteorologists when making a long-range forecast with the NAO, look for trends and patterns that could help predict what the pattern will be like in the next several months. Over the last three years, the NAO has been predominantly negative, which explains the cold winters and giant snowstorms for the East. I'm going to stick with the fact that the NAO will continue to be negative for this winter. Also, the NAO has been predominantly negative this summer. Therefore, I believe that this pattern will continue, leading to me to believe that a trough will dominant the winter pattern ( but not as strong of a trough as last year, as the NAO has been closer to neutral this year).

    With these two major factors in play, I believe that this winter will be quite similar to last winter. Mainly because of a developing La Nina, present La Nina-like conditions, the forecast of a predominantly negative NAO, I believe that many parts of the US will not receive a break from frigid and snowy winter weather. Even the places that don't receive extreme weather (such as Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico) will still be in exceptional drought, and with a new La Nina developing, drought conditions will get worse. Let's start with the West Coast. Due to La Nina conditions, the much of the West Coast (from Central California on northward) will be very wet again, with below normal temperatures allowing for another great skiing season across the Sierra Nevada and the Cascades. Expect major spring and summer flooding in 2012. In the Rockies and Northern Plains, I would expect another snowy year but with the storm track shifted south of the area and how deep the area of below normal temperatures is expected to be, I would only expect the heaviest snowfall to be during December and March. Temperatures will again be much below normal across the Northern Plains and Rockies. In the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, the jet stream expected to remain over this area throughout the winter mainly because of a developing ridge in the southeast part of the United States. This region will be extremely wet and snowy throughout the winter with frequent cold outbreaks, but not to the extent of last year's frigid temperatures. Spring flooding will be prevalent again and along with still wet soils could produce another major Mississippi flood in Spring 2012. Over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coastline, I am expecting below normal temperatures for the northern half of the region, while the southern half (south of Pennsylvania) will experience normal temperatures to above normal in extreme southern sections. Precipitation will more than likely be above normal for this region as the jet stream will ride right through the middle of it. Several major Nor-easters could develop again this year, bringing much above normal snowfall to areas from Washington D.C. To Boston, MA. Across the South (from Georgia and Florida to Texas), drier than normal conditions will prevail due to the already dry soils and a ridge that is expected to develop over the southeast. This will cause the exceptional drought to spread to Georgia and Florida, and leading to more wildfires. Temperatures will also be warmer than normal, which will not help the situation at all. Occasionally there could be a significant storm system that could bring northern parts of the south winter precipitation (sleet, freezing rain, snow), but they would be much more likely over Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas. Finally, in the Southwest, temperatures are expected to border line normal and above normal, mainly because of drier than normal conditions. I expect drier than normal conditions to expand across the Southwest causing a redevelopment of the drought in many areas. Only northern parts of the Southwest (central California, the Sierra Nevada) are expected to receive above normal precipitation.

Possibly Devastating Hurricane Irene. Major warming trend by Next Week.

As of 2:00 p.m. Saturday 27, 2011, Hurricane is currently onshore of North Carolina, bringing with it heavy rains and high winds over an extremely large area.  According to satellite data, this hurricane is as big as Europe.  This has caused its tropical storm force wind field to over 600 miles in diameter.  As Hurricane Irene continues heavy rain bands will continue to move onshore over North Carolina, Virginia, and Delaware.  The hurricane will continue to move northward and could possibly make a direct hit on New York City as a hurricane, causing widespread wind damage and severe flooding.  Because of this, Most of Manhattan Island was put under a mandatory evacuation, and large parts of all five buroughs.  After all is said and done, all large part of the Northeast, including New York City, could pick up over 15 inches of rain.  This will widespread severe flooding across many areas.  Over the next few days, the hurricane will increase in speed and weaken at the same time, becoming a tropical storm somewhere over Vermont.  After the hurricane is done, many billions of dollars in damages could be done.  In the meantime, I wouldn't plan on going to the beach this weekend in any part of the northeast.
Next week, after Hurricane Irene moves over the North Atlantic, a new pattern could come about, bringing much warmer temperatures to the area.  A ridge according to computer will build in behind the hurricane by mid-next week, sending temperatures into the nineties once again.  This new pattern could lead to a very warm September and October according to the Climate Prediction Center.

Warm Temperatures For the Rest of the Week. Heavy rain threat Saturday and Sunday.

As of 11:45 a.m., temperatures are the low 80's in most areas, with some areas still in the upper 70's.  Very sunny conditions have allowed for more insolation and high warming rates this morning.  Temperatures will continue to rise to around 86 or 87, with some isolated areas, especially ones with drier soil conditions such as Fort Wayne, will see temperatures to around 90 by 4 p.m.  This afternoon and evening, increasing cumulus clouds along with a very weak cold front could allow for the development of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, especially overnight.  After the weak cold front moves through, temperatures could rise to around 86 degrees by late afternoon tomorrow, but with a slightly drier air mass.  By Saturday, a strong upper level shortwave will move toward the lower Great Lakes, and along with increasing moisture values and high Upward Vertical Velocities in the 700 millibar level, will lead to the development of heavy rain and thunderstorms.  According to the Climate Prediction Center, the heaviest rainfall will fall to the southwest of Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana.  Also, according to forecast models (NAM and GFS/Avn), the majority of storms will be to the southwest of our area.  So unless the forecast changes, expect some rain and thunderstorms and be prepared for heavy rain, but odds are that most of the rain will hit areas south of us.  On Sunday, showery conditions could continue unless the cold front comes through early.  This cold front will cause temperatures to plummet next week into the upper 70's and lower 80's.

More Rain and Thunderstorms after Already Wet Month. Winter forecast will be released on August 25.

After an already wet August here in Antwerp, (I have estimated about 3.5 inches of rain to have fallen) making it the first above average month in terms of rainfall since May, more rain and thunderstorms are on the way.  On Saturday, a strong shortwave trough is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley, along with a surface trough moving in from Oklahoma.  This surface trough is expected to become a stationary front over the Ohio Valley, causing periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms over our area.  According to the National Weather Service, this may be our first widespread heavy rainfall event since May 25, 2011.  The associated shortwave trough will cause a band of widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms north of a warm front draped across the Ohio River.  As of right now, it is unclear how much rain may fall, but rainfall may be on the order of 1-3 inches area wide.  This may cause some areal flooding and will cause the Maumee River and other rivers in the area to rise back above normal levels and maybe even to flood stage.  On Sunday, these showers and thunderstorms may continue bringing additional rainfall, but is unclear at this time what will happen.  I will keep you updated.
       Already, I have seen people releasing winter forecasts and I just have to say, I will be releasing one too, on August 25, after some research.  According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Nina will be redeveloping by November, and it could restrengthen to weak to moderate levels.  According to some forecasters, our area could see much above normal snowfall again this winter, but with temperatures not being near as cold as last winter.  This forecast is still subject to change, but usually this area receives the heaviest snowfall during weak to moderate La Ninas.  But then again other factors may come into play.

Seasonably Comfortable Weather. More Storms on the Horizon

After a cold front and a few thunderstorms moved through the region yesterday and last night, temperatures have finally cooled to levels that are just above normal for this time of year.  Currently in Antwerp, it is 83 degrees while in Fort Wayne it is 84 degrees.  Defiance and Toledo are both at 82 degrees.  Temperatures could rise a few more degrees before beginning to fall early this evening.  By around 6 p.m., our cloud cover should begin to increase and thicken.  This should pave the way for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, with the possibility of heavy rain, and the possibility of severe weather, which is more the likely farther south.  Already, widespread heavy thunderstorms are developing over Northern Illinois and are increasing coverage.  These thunderstorms will likely move this way and hit by 10 p.m.  Since these thunderstorms are expected to grow in coverage, I would expect that these thunderstorms will last for several hours.  Tomorrow, thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon and evening hours, with the possibility of heavy rain being the main threat.  Throughout the rest of the week a longwave trough high in the atmosphere will be present over our area, causing much cooler conditions than we had in July.  This trough will allow shortwaves to ride around its base, bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

A Lot to Talk About.

I'm finally back.  I was camping down in Southern Ohio and Tennessee for all of last week.  While I was gone some interesting things have happened and now since I've been back a lot of interesting things have also happened.  Let's get down to business.  I first want to talk about the record heat in July.  According to the National Weather Service, July 2011 was the hottest July on record with an average temperature of 79.8 degrees, just shy of 80 degrees.  This beats the old record of 79.5 set in 1921.  We also had the second highest average high temperature on record of 91.0 degrees (to put this in perspective, we all thought last July was hot, well last July's average high temperature was only 88.6 degrees), only behind July 1955 (91.2 degrees) by 0.2 degrees.  July 2011's average low temperature was 68.6 degrees, which is the second highest average low temperature on record, behind July 1921 by a half of a degree.  July 2011 also had 22 90 degree days, which is the most on record for any given month in the entire recorded history of Fort Wayne.  This puts this year's total of 90 degree days at 29 which is more than last year.
     I also wanted to talk about the upcoming weather pattern.  According to the National Weather Service, there may be a pattern change coming up as the Central Plains ridge retrogrades westward.  When the ridge shifts westward, a wetter, cooler, stormier, pattern may come about in our area.  A northwest flow aloft will cause storms to ride up and over the ridge right into our area and along a stationary front that is supposed to form over our area early next week.  This could bring heavy rain events and widespread drought relief across the area.  This new pattern may also cause an uptick in the hurricane season activity.  Even with a trough building over our area, expect still above normal temperature for most of the next two weeks.  I will have another update tomorrow.